Ebor tips: Best value bets for York and Sandown on Saturday August 21
Value Bet tips: Saturday, August 21
1pt win Charging Thunder in 2.25 York at 20/1 (bet365, William Hill)
1pt win Ville De Grace in 2.40 Sandown at 20/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt win Humanitarian in 3.35 York at 16/1 (bet365)
1pt win Lucander in 4.45 York at 20/1 (Sky Bet, BetVictor)
Already advised on 01/08/21
Add Gosden hope to big-race staking plan
Two brilliant handicaps lead the way as York’s principal meeting comes to a close on Saturday and the case for Sonnyboyliston winning the Sky Bet Ebor made at the start of the month still stands firm.
Without wanting to repeat too much from the antepost column, Johnny Murtagh’s horse was rated 112 in Ireland last autumn after winning a 10-furlong Curragh handicap on Irish Champions Weekend by four and a quarter lengths and gets in here off a generous-looking UK mark of 108.
Murtagh – who trained Mutual Regard to win this race in 2014 – has prepared the horse perfectly including a course and distance sighter last month which simply wasn’t run to suit. The stronger tempo of an Ebor will play to this horse’s strengths much more and, as hoped, the cheekpieces that sparked the big improvement in 2020 and which have hitherto been held back, are brought into play again this weekend.
Stall 14 isn’t an issue with eight of the past 10 winners emerging from a double-figure draw and with no excuses when it comes to the ground potentially getting a good deal softer as well, there is a huge amount to like. Except for the current price, of course, which doesn’t have much beef left in it at all having been 20/1 when originally recommended.
The race is packed with fascinating alternatives but the other one I can’t let go unbacked at current odds is the John and Thady Gosden-trained HUMANITARIAN in the first-time hood (stable 3-7 when applying a hood first up this season, 26-104 at 25% overall).
I’m surprised he’s still a double-figure price given his overall profile as while the likes of Hamish and Mt Leinster are also worthy of respect following lengthy layoffs, neither looks open to quite the same level of improvement as Humanitarian, who has won three of his six starts to this point.
His two turf wins came on good to firm and good ground but being a son of Noble Mission I’d expect him to cope well enough if there ends up being a fair bit of dig underfoot (anything up to 20mm predicted in some forecasts).
The horse’s defeats came when second on debut at Newmarket, and then when seventh in the 2019 Derby at Epsom and King Edward VII at Royal Ascot later the same month, so he’s still totally unexposed when it comes to this sort of company.
His sole handicap outing was at Newbury last September when, following a 455-day injury layoff, he stayed on strongly over the mile and a half to beat Dubai Future, who now possesses a mark of 112 having won at Listed level in Meydan and finished fifth to Mishriff there when last seen in March.
There were other nice horses in behind that day including Scarlet Dragon and recent Goodwood winner Calling The Wind, so shunting Humanitarian up just 4lb to 106 doesn’t look harsh at all. Quite the opposite, in truth, as he still seems the type with real Group-race aspirations if team Gosden can keep him sound.
No doubt he’ll be as fit as they can get him and the freshness angle clearly hasn’t been a problem in the past, all three career victories having come after breaks of 50 days or more. If he truly gets the new mile and three-quarter trip then we could be in business.
Improving Thunder bred for tough Melrose test
Final word on the Ebor to outsider Makawee, who comes for this instead of running in Wednesday’s two-mile handicap, in which she finished third last year.
Her last handicap run resulted in an easy win at Goodwood from a mark of 100 last September so she’s not completely dismissed off 101 back at this venue despite some questionable efforts this time around.
However, I’d rather have a bet on Makawee’s three-year-old half-brother CHARGING THUNDER in the day’s other big betting race - the Sky Bet Melrose Handicap.
Also trained by David O’Meara, the son of War Command has a huge, raking stride and looks to have been crying out for this kind of test all year. In spite of this, he’s still managed to win over 10 furlongs at Chepstow in June and a mile and a half Pontefract handicap last month.
The 7lb rise incurred for his latest win ensures he gets into the handicap proper off 82 this weekend, though Jason Watson has presumably had to step in for the ride with regular partner Danny Tudhope unable to do the weight (8-7).
Charging Thunder’s other notable half-sibling is Prince Of Arran, who went from an 80-horse to genuine pattern performer when granted a thorough test of stamina so it’s no great surprise the 12-furlong switch paid off so handsomely for this gelding last time.
The bare form isn’t anything to write home about, given the third has been beaten in a maiden handicap at Beverley since, but he was in a different league from a fair way out and really powered into the stiff uphill finish.
He’s going to love York’s long home straight on that evidence and it looks like we’re only just scratching the surface with him at the moment, which bodes extremely well heading into such a competitive contest.
Beckett hope to strike back in repeat bid
With steady rain forecast throughout the afternoon, the ground may have eased appreciably by the time of the 10-furlong Sky Bet Handicap at 4.45, which should suit LUCANDER, who looks a fair price to burst the bubbles of a few of the less exposed types in here.
Ralph Beckett’s four-year-old has a pretty patchy record this season and didn’t look happy wandering about in the closing stages on heavy going at Goodwood last month, but I just wonder if it was the track that he didn’t really take a shine to.
Conversely, we know he loves it at York as he won a nursery here in October 2019, while he landed this very race on soft ground last year before finishing second in the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket.
His only other Knavesmire appearance came in this summer’s John Smith’s Cup where he finished 11th behind Johnny Drama, but another glance at the replay shows he stumbled quite badly after clipping heels early on in the race so I can forgive him that effort.
The handicapper has been quite quick to drop him again and he’s now 3lb lower than the Cambridgeshire second – 1lb higher than the victory in the corresponding race 12 months ago – and with the yard among the winners here on Friday, I’m willing to chance Lucander back at his favourite haunt.
Grace worth excusing
Two Group Threes come from Sandown and Reach For The Moon is going to be really short for John Gosden and Frankie Dettori in the Betway Solario Stakes.
Preference is for a wager in the Betway Atalanta Stakes where Indigo Girl - for the same jockey and trainer as Reach For The Moon - could be worth taking on. Admittedly, she's significantly clear on the ratings but has only raced the once as a three-year-old so clearly hasn't been the most straightforward and she took a bit of a backward step on her juvenile form when eventually reappearing at Ascot last month.
In opposition, Maamora has some fantastic form at Sandown and will be a big threat to all if back on song following an Epsom flop, while Potapova could still be anything after finding the step up in grade too much too soon at Royal Ascot. She's still priced up on reputation as much as anything, though, and her stablemate VILLE DE GRACE makes a little more appeal.
She found life tough in against Primo Bacio, Creative Flair and Snow Lantern at York but we know now that was a red-hot race and this could be more her bag based on her relatively encouraging seasonal reappearance run when fifth behind Alcohol Free in the Fred Darling at Newbury.
She ran there like a mile would definitely play to her strengths as the year goes on and she's well worth another shot at the trip despite what happened on the Knavesmire. The stiff course here could also bring about marked improvement compared to her last run and, in short, she's the over-priced runner in the field.
Published at 1600 BST on 20/08/21
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