Doncaster tips: Best value bets for St Leger Festival Friday September 15
Matt Brocklebank has already had a 9/1 winner on day two of the St Leger Festival - check out his other selections still to run today.
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Value Bet tips: Friday, September 15
1pt win Dancing Gemini in 1.50 Doncaster 9/1 (General)
1pt win Broome in 3.00 Doncaster at 11/1 (General)
1pt win Quantum Leap in 3.35 Doncaster at 8/1 (General)
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O'Brien old-stager to sweep the floor with them?
A largely clear day forecast at Doncaster on Friday but the ground will still be quite taxing and, despite a small field of five, the feature Betfred Doncaster Cup is expected to be a fair test of stamina.
Nine-year-old The Grand Visir has been stuffed a couple of times in the race in the past and does appear to be making up the numbers somewhat, which leaves four serious contenders to consider. We know an awful lot about three of them, including last month’s Lonsdale Cup winner Coltrane, who must now carry the 3lb penalty for scoring at York.
The obvious potential improver is Sky Bet Ebor runner-up Sweet William, who has blossomed in the handicap ranks as a four-year-old (said to have been incredibly fragile during his youth) and looked a shade unlucky not to land a gamble – and a four-timer in the process – on the Knavesmire last month.
He’ll have no issue with the ground and looks a big threat to the market leader Coltrane, although he’s looking a little bit tight around the 4/1 mark and the best bet in the race at current odds is one of the old boys of the party, BROOME.
Aidan O’Brien’s seven-year-old probably isn’t the force he once was and has become hard to predict over the past few seasons, but he was eighth in the Arc last year and his overall body of work is right up there in this company.
I’ve no major concerns over this trip either given the best performance he put in this year came when landing a strongly-run Group 2 Dubai Gold Cup (2m) at Meydan, when lowering Subjectivist’s track record by almost a second.
He obviously won’t get a breakneck gallop here but I reckon Ryan Moore isn't a huge price to look to switch things up with a stop-start ride from the front end, and Broome clearly has the class to get away from them if he’s on his best behaviour.
He won’t get many better opportunities to add another Group race to his CV and, while evidently versatile ground-wise, now he’s getting on a bit he might just be one who appreciates a bit of dig even more than the good to firm going he’s been racing on for most of the year.
Dancing for joy?
Earlier on, DANCING GEMINI should go well for Roger Teal and Lewis Edmunds in the Betfred Flying Scotsman Stakes.
Following on from an eyecatching debut run when second from off the pace at Salisbury in June, his first go at Listed level ended in a well-held fifth at Ascot, but the winner Rosallion looks a bit of a star and Dancing Gemini wasn’t seen to best effect anyway.
Drawn in one on the wing, the son of Camelot couldn’t get much cover early on, racing keenly before making a promising move with a couple of furlongs to travel. His effort petered out as you might have expected but there were definitely positives to be gleaned from the effort.
He set the record straight with a stylish maiden win on good to soft ground at Newbury last month, form franked by the third winning an Ascot maiden impressively since, and I reckon the market has underestimated this colt’s quite considerable potential.
Quantum a phenomenon bet
Kylian and Flora Of Bermuda were the closest I came to a bet in the Flying Childers as they’re both clearly better than they were able to show at the Ebor meeting, but neither is being massively missed in the betting so I’ll focus on the Betfred Mallard Handicap.
Only eight declared runners which is a bit of a shame and will probably be enough to put most each-way punters off, for fear of losing a place before the off, but I’ll take a win-only dart at QUANTUM LEAP.
He’s pretty hopeless when it comes to breaking on terms with the others and I wouldn’t expect him to turn things around on that score here, but there’s always time to get organized over the Leger trip here and it’s unlikely they’ll crawl through the early stages with Real Dream and Island Brave among those who tend to go forward.
Quantum Leap had a wall of horses to weave through from the back of the field at Nottingham last time, making good headway from the rear until just losing his momentum coming to the two-furlong marker.
He lost even more when Cal Rodriguez had to take back and pull his mount to the wide outside, and the horse could only box on at the one pace to finish a never-nearer seventh.
The smaller field here should – in theory – negate the fears over crippling traffic problems up the home straight and I reckon we’re basically looking at a big improver who could rate a whole lot higher once things fall into place.
His Haydock win in July smacked of a horse going places in the staying handicap division and he’s definitely worth another chance off the revised mark of 87 (5lb higher) following the Nottingham effort.
Published at 1600 BST on 14/09/23
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