Matt Brocklebank landed a 9/1 winner on Friday and highlights the pick of the value on the final day of the St Leger Festival at Doncaster.
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Value Bet tips: Saturday, September 16
1pt win Modaara in 2.05 Chester at 7/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Existent in 2.25 Doncaster at 22/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
1pt e.w. Dusky Lord in 2.25 Doncaster at 50/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
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Voltigeur looks solid trial once again
High-profile storylines at every turn in Saturday’s Betfred St Leger Stakes but when you strip all that back and focus on form we do have a really competitive race for the final Classic of the season.
The strongest piece of evidence, as is often the case, looks to be last month's Great Voltigeur Stakes at York in which long-range fancy Continuous really announced himself having been bubbling away nicely in decent company throughout the spring and summer.
The manner of that victory, by three and three-quarter lengths from Castle Way with the penalised Gregory back in third having gone hard from the front, marked Continuous down as a colt really fulfilling his potential and I wonder if a bit too much has been read into how the race panned out.
Aidan O’Brien’s horse clearly got a good ride from Ryan Moore but that should hardly come as a shock to anyone, while another strongly-run affair looks likely this weekend. And for all that Gregory could be a bit sharper having been returning from a break after his Queen’s Vase victory in June, there’s a very good chance Continuous will come on a lot himself as he’d also had a couple of months off prior to York.
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A son of Heart’s Cry out of Galileo mare Fluff, Continuous is a half-brother to National Ballet who stayed two miles and I can’t see the tacky ground being much of an issue either given he won in a bog at Saint-Cloud 12 months ago. I wouldn’t be too quick to argue with those who felt he wasn’t completely in love with the quick conditions on the Knavesmire last time.
Arrest, the choice of Frankie Dettori following the recent rain and a midweek gallop at Clarehaven too no doubt, is the obvious threat if it is still genuinely testing underfoot come Saturday afternoon, although I’ve already backed him for next month’s Champions Long Distance Cup and very much have him pinned as an out-and-out stayer for the future.
In short, Continuous looks the class act in this race and Ballydoyle stablemates Denmark, Alexandroupolis and Tower Of London will help to ensure an honest gallop.
Desert Hero and Middle Earth look a little under-priced if anything, while Chesspiece certainly isn't out of it but has a bit of ground to make up on the former, as well as Gregory from Royal Ascot, so I’m not tempted to add to – or double down on – the good antepost position.
Williams to work wonders in Portland
I’ve been waiting all week for a race like the Betfred Portland so won’t be passing up the opportunity to have a bet and like a couple at big prices.
The first of which is EXISTENT, who has taken a while to come back down the weights and, from a current perch of 95, is admittedly still 1lb higher than when last successful at Wolverhampton in February 2022.
However, that’s purely due to the fact he’s run some really good races in defeat since then, often being campaigned in quality company including two outings in the Group 1 King’s Stand Stakes. He’s been well held at the Royal meeting but was beaten just a neck in last year’s Palace House Stakes at Newmarket and just a length and a half in the Coral Charge at Sandown the same summer.
This term his peak performance arguably came when fourth to Dramatised in the Temple Stakes at Haydock, a race that featured subsequent big-race winners Live In The Dream, Mitbaahy, Equality, Equilateral and Raasel.
He was possibly a shade flattered that day as he raced in the group towards the favoured stands’ side but perhaps more significant ahead of a race like the Portland was his Goodwood second behind track specialist Lord Riddiford from a mark of 100 at the start of August.
That quality handicap has produced four subsequent winners and the likes of Vintage Clarets and Dream Composer – who reoppose at Doncaster – were back in the field.
He was hampered after a slow start two starts ago and ran quite an eyecatching race behind Portland favourite Call Me Ginger there last weekend too. A swift turnaround has rarely been a bad thing for Existent and his Goodwood second came just three days after finishing tenth at Ascot, while he was wearing a hood and cheekpieces combination for the first time at Goodwood and I quite like another headgear switch here as trainer Stuart Williams has opted to remove the hood now in a bit to keep the five-year-old sweet.
Williams has a cracking record in handicaps at this meeting down the years (strike-rate in excess of 33% prior to Friday’s action) and it could be worth having his supposed second-string, DUSKY LORD, on side too.
He's drawn towards the other side of the track, for starters, which is never a bad way to split stakes in sprint handicaps at this venue, but there’s far more to this horse’s chances than that.
He’s not been with his current trainer long, having left Roger Varian and gone through the ring for 70,000 guineas last autumn, and the canny Williams has probably had this race in mind as an end-game target for some time.
He was drawn 21 of 21 in this race last year and ran quite well despite having to challenge away from the bulk of the action (first four home drawn 14, 3, 5 and 6), a promising effort on which he delivered in style by winning the Silver Cup at Ayr by three lengths from a mark of 90.
The return of cheekpieces (worn only twice previously, when runner-up at Goodwood and when winning at Ayr) seemed to spark a considerable amount of improvement that day so it’s obviously encouraging to see the same headgear back for the first time since.
This year's three runs have featured two very low-key runs but the middle one at Sandown showed he’s still got plenty of appetite for the game and he finished only just behind Call Me Ginger that day.
Having slipped back to 92, he’s handicapped to strike again and is entered at Ayr again next week for good measure.
Mod to rock for Varian at Chester
There are a couple of ITV races from Chester too and I can’t quite find enough of an angle into the Camden Hells Handicap, but will be taking on Bluestocking at a very short price in the Tote Stand Cup Stakes.
She's got rock-solid claims down in class after finishing second in the Irish Oaks and fourth in the Yorkshire Oaks but is yet to win a race of any description this season and, as a big filly who seems to take a bit of organising, I find it hard to imagine Chester will be a her ideal track.
She’s not the only one dropping in grade here, the returning Al Qareem having run in the Group 2 Dubai Gold Cup out in Meydan when last seen back in March.
However, the best bet is the totally unexposed MODAARA, representing an in-form Varian yard that operates at around 20% at this venue.
Modaara is exceptionally well bred, being a daughter of Dubawi out of Group 1 winner Nahrain, and the way she won two novice races at Chelmsford and Kempton either side of her winter break left the impression she was on the fast track to pattern class (Kempton replay below).
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Discover Sporting Life Plus BenefitsA subsequent flop in Haydock’s G3 Pinnacle Stakes appeared to burst her bubble on the face of it but the ground looked way too fast for her there and the she’s since missed a couple of Listed assignments on account of good to firm going rather hammers the point home.
Connections have had to be patient with her but they've left her in the Group 1 Fillies & Mares Stakes at Ascot on Champions Day which gives a clear indication of the regard in which she's held.
Published at 1600 BST on 15/09/23
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