Military Order races to Derby favouritism
Military Order: The highest-rated of the Derby trial winners so far

Derby Trial Timeform ratings analysis | how the winners stack up


Ahead of Thursday's Dante Stakes, Tony McFadden highlights how the recent Derby trial winners stack up on Timeform ratings so far.

Military Order (Timeform rating 119p from 104p)

Military Order is a brother to Adayar and is likely to head to Epsom with a favourite's chance of emulating his brother's Derby success. Adayar had to settle for second in the Derby Trial at Lingfield but Military Order went one better than his illustrious sibling, producing a display that Timeform's reporter labelled "the most convincing of all the trials so far this spring".

Waterlogging on the turf course meant the race was switched to the all-weather for the first time since Main Sequence - who subsequently finished runner-up to Camelot in the Derby - triumphed at Lingfield in 2012, but it featured a stronger field than usual and Military Order put up one of the best performances in the race in recent times.

His rating of 119p means that only Auguste Rodin (121) has a higher rating among the Derby entrants, though that one's figure comes from his heavy-ground success in the Futurity Trophy as a two-year-old and he now has something to prove after flopping in the 2000 Guineas.

Military Order, on the other hand, showed his wellbeing, his stamina for the mile-and-a-half trip, plus a nimbleness around that sharp track which bodes well for his prospects at Epsom.

Timeform Derby ratings

Arrest (116p from 111p)

Arrest had progressed well as a juvenile, signing off with a close-up second to Dubai Mile in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud, and he made a stylish return to action in the Chester Vase last week.

Arrest didn't have to come off the bridle to beat Aidan O'Brien's representative Adelaide River by six and a half lengths, with a further ten lengths back to Hadrianus in third. That was an impressive display from Arrest, who has the pedigree, looks and two-year-old form to suggest he could develop into a high-class three-year-old, and he has been rated as one of the better winners of the Chester Vase in recent years, earning a similar figure to subsequent Derby winner Ruler of The World.

However, the testing ground, which Timeform described as heavy, obviously brings in an element of doubt about what exactly he achieved.

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Sprewell (114p from 98p)

Sprewell had to settle for minor honours on his two starts as a juvenile but he has won both outings this term, most notably the Group 3 Derby Trial Stakes at Leopardstown where Timeform's reporter noted he "impressed with just about every aspect of this performance".

Sprewell, tackling a mile and a quarter for the first time, travelled smoothly, made good headway entering the straight and was produced to lead over a furlong out before quickly asserting inside the final 100 yards to win by three lengths.

He didn't quite match the level of the last two winners of the Derby Trial - Bolshoi Ballet and Stone Age then failed to meet expectations at Epsom after being sent off favourite and second favourite respectively - but he has posted the best effort by an Irish-trained colt in a trial so far this season.

Sprewell wins the Derby Trial
Sprewell wins the Derby Trial

San Antonio (108p from 91p)

San Antonio was taking a marked step up in class in the Dee Stakes having won a Dundalk maiden on his previous outing, but he coped admirably and showed much-improved form to prevail.

San Antonio was a tenth winner of the race for O'Brien, though none of the others went on to win the Derby and you have to go back to 2003, when Kris Kin scored for Sir Michael Stoute, to find the last time the Dee Stakes winner followed up at Epsom.

There was a lot to like about the straightforward style of San Antonio's success at Chester and he had a bit in hand, though he did benefit from a well-judged front-running ride and will need to take another big jump forward if he's to snap the sequence - if indeed he even takes his chance at Epsom with the French equivalent looking like a suitable option.


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