Dante Stakes winner Desert Crown and his Epsom Derby bid for Sir Michael Stoute

“...is potentially out of the top drawer and his position at the head of the Derby betting is justified after this comfortable defeat of his two ante-post market rivals, clearly heading to Epsom as a fast-improver and with an excellent chance in what at this stage doesn't look likely to be a vintage renewal.”

If you didn’t know any differently, then the quote above could easily have been describing Desert Crown following his success in Thursday’s Dante Stakes at York.

The only obvious error is that the other ante-post favourites for this year's Derby, namely Stone Age and Changingoftheguard, were both safely tucked up in their boxes at Ballydoyle rather than putting their classic credentials to the test on the Knavesmire, their trial wins already having been achieved last week at Leopardstown and Chester respectively.

Instead, the quote above formed part of the Timeform report following the 2011 edition of the Dante, a race won in smooth fashion by Carlton House to provide trainer Sir Michael Stoute with his sixth success in Britain's pre-eminent Derby trial.

• Click here for full Dante Stakes report and reaction

Two of the five before him – Shahrastani (1986) and North Light (2004) – went on to taste success in the Derby, but Carlton House himself wasn’t quite so fortunate at Epsom. Beaten less than a length into third behind Pour Moi, he was arguably unlucky not to finish closer still after being pushed wide on the home turn when hampered by a couple of weakening outsiders.

It was a regrettable result for all concerned, for lovers of a good story as well as favourite backers. After all, Carlton House was owned by the Queen, who is still yet to see her famous silks carried to victory in the Derby after nearly 70 years of trying.

Incidentally, that wait is sure to go on at least one more year after the Queen’s three entries for the premier classic were all withdrawn at the latest forfeit stage, including last year’s Solario Stakes winner Reach For The Moon for whom an intended prep race in the Dante came too soon.

We won’t have a royal winner of the Derby in 2022 then – a race set to take place amidst the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee celebrations, of course – but we could have another Stoute-trained winner in the shape of Desert Crown, who carries the same colours of Saeed Suhail as Kris Kin did when winning the Derby in 2003.

Stoute has won the Derby five times in total, with victories for Shergar (1981) and Workforce (2010) bookending those of Shahrastani, Kris Kin and North Light. Aidan O’Brien is the only active trainer to have bettered that tally at Epsom, though it’s perhaps symptomatic of a shift in power that six of his eight wins in the race have come in the 12 years since Stoute was last successful with Workforce.

There remain few better trainers than Stoute when it comes to improving horses with age, but it’s fair to say that top-class three-year-olds in his care have been few and far between in the last decade or so, particularly for a stable which would once have been your first port of call when trying to find a potential Derby colt.

For context, Stoute has sent out only two runners in the Derby since Carlton House finished third in 2011, with Across The Stars (tenth) and Ulysses (twelfth) both finishing down the field behind Harzand in 2016.

It’s also worth pointing out that the yard sent out just one Group One winner of any description in both 2020 and 2021 – the recently retired sprinter Dream of Dreams, also in the Kris Kin silks of Saeed Suhail, was the horse who came to the rescue in both years, winning the Diamond Jubilee Stakes aged seven last year to go with his Sprint Cup victory the previous summer.

It’s not just at the top level that Stoute has suffered either. All suffering is relative, of course, but a return of 67 winners in 2021 was the lowest since 2011 for a man crowned champion trainer in Britain on no fewer than 10 occasions between 1981 and 2009.

There are certain parallels to be drawn between the career of Stoute and that of his late sparring partner, Sir Henry Cecil, the only trainer to have won the Dante seven times before he was joined on that number on Thursday.

Cecil was himself crowned champion trainer in Britain on 10 occasions between 1976 and 1993, but the early years of the twenty-first century saw a marked decline in fortunes for Warren Place where the size of the string fell from over 200 to around 60. At his lowest point in 2005, Cecil sent out just 12 winners from 102 runners in Britain.

Now, things are a long way from getting that bad for Stoute, but he too has been dealt some significant blows, both personally and professionally, in the last couple of years alone.

Whilst having to deal with the death of his long-term partner Coral Pritchard-Gordon in August 2020 following a long illness, Stoute has also seen a decrease in the number of horses in his care. In 2021, for example, Stoute saddled 324 runners in Britain which is his lowest tally on that front this century.

It was also announced last month that Stoute would no longer be training horses for Shadwell, while the fact he no longer has any horses based at Beech Hurst Stables underlines that he isn’t operating on quite the same scale as he has in previous years.

Stoute’s entire string is now based at Freemason Lodge – situated adjacent to Beech Hurst on the Bury Road in Newmarket – and he seemingly has no need for the second yard where Shergar was stabled when winning the Derby more than 40 years ago. More recently, Dream Of Dreams could call Beech Hurst home when registering his Group One wins in 2020 and 2021.

That all helps to explain why the victory of Desert Crown was so warmly received on the Knavesmire. The racing public clearly have a huge amount of affection for Stoute, and the reception is sure to be even more heartfelt if the same horse goes on to win at Epsom, much like when Cecil celebrated his return to the top table following the victory of Light Shift in the 2007 Oaks.

What is the likelihood of Desert Crown giving the crowd what they want and providing Stoute with his sixth Derby victory in around three weeks’ time? If you’re after a quick appraisal, then I refer you back to the quote at the start of this article.

Like Carlton House back then, Desert Crown is potentially out of the top drawer and his position at the head of the Derby betting looks fully justified following this three-and-a-quarter-length defeat of Royal Patronage.

Admittedly, that rival was as big as 25/1 for the premier classic before the Dante was run, but he still gives the form a very solid look as a Group Two-winning juvenile who had run well for a long way when eighth on his reappearance in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket.

Desert Crown is clearly a fast-improver as well, this just the second start of his career after a dominant maiden success at Nottingham in November. Even in winning this Group Two he didn’t look fully extended, so there must be every chance that he’ll have a bigger effort in the locker when the situation demands it at Epsom.

Finally, it’s fair to say that the 2022 Derby doesn’t look likely to be a vintage renewal, particularly in the absence of Luxembourg.

Nations Pride and Stone Age were Timeform’s highest-rated contenders before the Dante was run, both with ratings of 118p, but that represents a fairly low bar by recent standards. For context, only twice before this century has the highest-rated runner been on a par with that, when Sinndar won in 2000 and when Wings of Eagles won in 2017.

That is why the Dante was such an important race and in the shape of Desert Crown – who now has a Timeform rating of 121p – it certainly had a worthy winner to give the Derby a real short in the arm.

Hopefully, the story ends a bit better for Stoute than it did with Carlton House.

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