Coral-Eclipse tips: Big race preview and analysis for Sandown Park including Vadeni and Native Trail

1. Who makes the running in the absence of a Ballydoyle contender?

With all three Aidan O’Brien-trained possibles taken out of the Coral-Eclipse, as well as Saeed bin Suroor’s Real World, the prospect of a tactical race has become a real possibility with the remaining contenders all considered off-the-pace horses.

Indeed, the six horses declared for the race have 63 collective starts under their belts and only Lord North, in a two-runner race at Newcastle on his second racecourse appearance, has ever made the running before.

Something has to take the bull by the horns, even if it’s reluctantly, and the most likely frontrunner must be William Haggas’ Alenquer under Tom Marquand. He usually races prominently and has been positioned just off the leader on all of his last five starts, while he’s well proven over a mile and a half and wouldn’t want this race to be run at a messy gallop.

Vadeni showed a nice turn of foot to win the Prix du Jockey Club and it looks likely he has the tools to deal with a tactical race, ditto Native Trail who steps up to 10 furlongs from a mile for the first time.

Neither of those two look frontrunners, even in these circumstances, and if there is a surprise leader it could be Mishriff under David Egan.

He was fresh in this race last year on his comeback when beaten by St Mark’s Basilica, so making the running could be one way to keep a lid on him and his best UK performance, at York in last season’s Juddmonte International, saw him take it up early in the straight after racing just off the leaders.

Click here for latest Coral-Eclipse odds at Sky Bet

2. Will Ryan Moore ride Bay Bridge differently than at Royal Ascot?

While we’re on tactics it will be fascinating to see how Ryan Moore rides Bay Bridge after the pair were outfoxed by Shane Crosse and State Of Rest in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes.

There’s no doubt Bay Bridge could’ve done with a stronger gallop to aim at last time and while he’s never hinted that front-running is his game, Moore will be alive to any tactical scenario given what happened at Royal Ascot.

Perhaps Moore was over-confident on Bay Bridge at Ascot given what he experienced in the Brigadier Gerard at Sandown previously, a race in which defied a moderate gallop to sprint away from his rivals up the hill.

Impressive against Group 3 opposition that day, albeit featuring a few former leading lights in Addeybb and Lord Glitters, as well as the promising Mostahdaf, he didn’t quite have the boot to overhaul State Of Rest in the Prince Of Wales’s and it’s arguable he takes on an even higher-class of top-level rivals here.

A lack of pace will be a concern to Moore, so it would be no surprise if he rides Bay Bridge more handily in a bid to avoid a repeat of what happened last time.

3. How strong is the three-year-old challenge?

The market suggests extremely strong considering Vadeni and Native Trail dominate the betting but history tells us a degree of caveat emptor needs to be applied when investing in the Classic generation in this race.

If we look at all the three-year-olds that were well fancied in this race this century – let’s say sent off at 5/1 or shorter – the overall record is five winners from 19 representatives, and backing them blind to a £1 level stake would’ve resulted in a net loss of £9.64.

The success stories were Hawk Wing, Sea The Stars, Golden Horn, Roaring Lion and St Mark’s Basilica, but the well-fancied three-year-olds beaten by older horses list is a longer one in the same timeframe and at much shorter prices than Vadeni and Native Trail, too.

Motivator, Authorized, and The Gurkha were all beaten as three-year-olds by older horses when sent off at odds-on, while horses like Sakhee, Tobougg, and Barney Roy suffered the same fate at 9/4 or shorter.

Of course, we have to judge this season’s Classic crop on their own merits, but it is questionable as to how deep the French Derby was, especially with the ground and draw going against French 2000 Guineas winner Modern Games, while Native Trail will have to improve on his own three-year-old form to win this.

He was workmanlike when winning what looks a weak renewal of the Irish 2,000 Guineas at the Curragh and, while he shapes like he’ll get 10 furlongs, it hardly looks an obvious shout on breeding.

All things considered, Vadeni and Native Trail look short enough against a quartet of top-class older horses...

4. How dangerous is Mishriff on his first domestic run of the season, and can Lord North bounce back?

We’ve tackled one of the older brigade already, but John & Thady Gosden head into Frankie Dettori-less Group One territory with a pair of aces in Mishriff and Lord North, and both would be players here on their best form.

Mishriff looks the most likely to put his best foot forward out of the duo, his six-length romp over Alenquer in the Juddmonte International at York last August still lingering in the memory despite a couple of high-profile reverses subsequently.

That Knavesmire success came on his third start of the season and he looked undercooked on his first go last summer, in this very race, when he was outpointed in style by St Mark’s Basilica.

Perhaps the Gosden team won’t have left so much to work on this time around – and he did win the Saudi Cup in 2021 after an identical 126-day break – so prices of 15/2 might well underestimate him seeing as he’s the form choice on the basis of that York victory.

As for Lord North, we have to go much further back than last August for his best piece of form. It’s over two years now since he smashed up Addeybb and co in the 2020 Prince Of Wales’s and a renaissance looks unlikely in this company, even if the hood does come off on time on Saturday.

5. Is the Alenquer Tattersalls Gold Cup form underestimated?

Finally, we get to the selection, ALENQUER, and while Bay Bridge is highly respected, especially if he gets the race run to suit, I do think the way this could pan out - coupled with the Curragh form of William Haggas’ horse - makes him the bet at prices around the 8/1 mark.

We’ve already discussed the possible tactical advantage for Tom Marquand at the top of the piece and as a punter I’d always want my horse up there with the pace at Sandown in almost all scenarios. That should be the case with Alenquer and he could be a tremendously difficult horse to pass at a track that suits his grinding-away style.

Don’t forget on just his third start he beat a future Derby winner, a future Breeders’ Cup winner and a future Irish Derby second over this course and distance, while it’s highly encouraging his career-best effort came on his first go as a four-year-old in that Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh.

Of course, the form looks even better in light of what the third home, State Of Rest, and the fifth home, Broome, did at Royal Ascot, but even more importantly look at how game Alenquer was in the run for the line (see video replay, below) after being under pressure from some way out.

There is the possibility he gets done for pace by a speedier horse like Bay Bridge, Vadeni or Native Trail, but that scenario is fully factored into his odds for my money, and he’s the bet for me in another compelling renewal of the Coral-Eclipse.

Click here for latest Coral-Eclipse odds at Sky Bet

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