Value Bet tips: Monday, December 27
1pt e.w. Discordantly in 2.50 Chepstow at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt win Canelo in 3.10 Kempton at 10/1 (General)
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Where's the each-way value in the Welsh National?
It’ll be typically testing at Chepstow for Coral Welsh Grand National day and that’s good news for antepost fancy The Big Dog who has been primed for this from some way back and gets in under a lovely weight with old boy Native River topping the shop under 11-12.
The Big Dog has contracted markedly in price over the past couple of weeks but the one other obvious element which tempers enthusiasm at this stage is that the original plan was clearly to have the now-suspended Jamie Codd available for the big day (he'd have probably been unable to do the weight in any case).
Nothing against Johnny Burke – far from it in fact - but Codd does seem to get on well with The Big Dog and he’ll be a significant miss on Monday. Having put him up at 20s the job is clearly done from our point of view when it comes to that particular project.
Last year’s winner Secret Reprieve – not sighted since and 6lb higher in the ratings – is there to be shot at as 9/2 clear favourite and the value now lies with another Irish challenger DISCORDANTLY who fell when still in touch with the leaders five-out before The Big Dog went on to beat subsequent Midlands National fourth Screaming Colours in the Punchestown Grand National Trial back in February.
It’s fair to suggest Discordantly has proved to be something of a ‘nearly horse’ in his chasing career to this point but he’s always struck me as a thorough stayer and I thought he ran a bit better than the end result when sixth in the Ultima at Cheltenham in March, a race dominated by those right on the sharp end from the off.
Jessica Harrington’s horse couldn’t quite get close enough to mount a serious challenge at the Festival but he has raced up with the pace in the past and I’d be amazed if the booking of Gavin Sheehan doesn’t prompt another relatively forward ride here after being held up behind horses again at Navan on his comeback.
The Troytrown he contested there looked a really warm race of its type, quality novice Run Wild Fred (favourite for the NH Chase) impressively beating stablemate Farclas and subsequent Cheltenham second Mister Fogpatches.
Discordantly ran with credit, ending up sixth again, and while he’s gone well fresh in the past it did look like a race that could bring him on a bit. Soft ground has never been an issue either for the son of Salutino and he remains open to potential over marathon distances running off a 2lb lower mark than when quietly fancied (10/1) at Cheltenham in the spring.
A BHA mark of 140 actually means he’s one of the last to sneak in here off his ‘correct’ mark and the fitting of a first-time tongue tie could also help spark a little bit of an upturn in performance. I like his claims around the 20/1 mark.
What's the best bet at Kempton?
The pick of the quality is obviously over at Kempton but genuine betting opportunities look rather thin on the ground except for the Play Ladbrokes 1-2-Free On Football Handicap Chase.
This looks open for a bit of a turn-up and I wouldn’t completely rule out rank outsider (at time of writing) Sussex Ranger who comes back after 411 days away on a tempting sort of mark.
However, the one I’m taking a chance on is CANELO, who one could argue didn’t stand much chance before the tapes even went up in the Ladbrokes Trophy given he was competing from 3lb ‘wrong’ having been entered at Newbury prior to being dropped for his moderate comeback run at Bangor.
He duly went off 66/1 and made no impact but Tom Bellamy pulled him up fairly early in a bid to save him for another day and hopefully it could pay dividends here.
Getting back onto a relatively sharp track won’t hurt his chances, having recorded his last three triumphs at Wetherby, Aintree and Huntingdon, while all ground conditions come alike when he's on his A-game. That was definitely the case this time last year as he won the Rowland Meyrick from recent Becher heroine Snow Leopardess on Boxing Day 2020 and that run came off precisely the same mark he’s back on now.
The other aspect I like is that trainer Alan King has switched the headgear – he now sports a visor – as he won in first-time cheekpieces at Aintree last November following a well-held run at Uttoxeter. There’s certainly enough to merit a bet at double-figure odds on Monday.
Published at 1530 GMT on 26/12/21
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