Dan Birkinshaw gives the Sky Bet trading room reaction to the Dublin Racing Festival with Cheltenham in mind.
There is a lot to dissect from the past week with the notable return of the Dublin Racing Festival which comprised two excellent days of racing with plenty of top-class performances, many of which have reshaped races at the Cheltenham Festival.
Kopek Des Bordes traded 7/1 Non Runner No Bet for the Supreme prior to an outstanding effort in the two-mile Grade One novice hurdle on Sunday. He is now 5/4 NRNB and looks the standout novice either side of the water on that running. Significantly keen for the majority of the trip, Paul Townend allowed him to take it up approaching the second last and it was all over turning for home. That performance put away any doubts surrounding his jumping and you would struggle to find many reasons to oppose him next month.
Majborough showed a proper engine to win the Grade One Irish Arkle, despite a less than efficient round of jumping. Much like his chase debut, he hit the line very hard and he should enjoy the test that the Arkle presents at Cheltenham. He is 9/4 from 11/4 NRNB for that race.
Galopin Des Champs rightfully received a fantastic reception at Leopardstown with another dominant performance in the Irish Gold Cup. He continues to shorten for the Cheltenham equivalent at 2/5 NRNB. Opposition is now wearing thin for that contest with Il Est Francais recently scratched and Gerri Colombe confirmed out for the season at the start of this week. It also looks like the third-placed horse on Saturday, Fact To File, may be leaning towards the Ryanair now after being comprehensively beaten by his stablemate for the second time in as many runs. Fact To File has always been a short enough price NRNB for the Ryanair at 6/4 but is now 2/1 from 7/2 for that race in the market where ante-post rules apply.
Whilst a few enhanced their claims for next month, plenty did the opposite with the likes of Gaelic Warrior putting in a disappointing enough run behind Solness and he’s 9/2 from 5/2 NRNB for the Champion Chase. Given the Willie Mullins team were in red-hot form as usual at this meeting, you can probably assume Sainte Lucie didn’t give her true running in the Grade One Juvenile Hurdle, nevertheless she is 16/1 from 7/1 NRNB for the Triumph next month.
So where do Sky Bet stand from a trading perspective on the back of last weekend? Final Demand was an impressive winner of the two-mile-six-furlong contest on Saturday. It is hard to knock a horse winning in that fashion on only his second start under rules, however 5/2 for the Turners Novices’ Hurdle is a price we are looking to lay given that race at the Dublin Racing Festival is one typically won by a staying type. The New Lion is 3/1 for the Turners and is another we are happy enough laying for that race.
Despite winning snugly in the end on Sunday, Ballyburn’s jumping is still a concern over three miles at Cheltenham and the 2/1 ante-post for the Brown Advisory is a price we want to lay too. There will be a lot more pressure for the lead next time and, barring over two miles against Sir Gino, he has yet to be put under serious pressure for poll position in a race. It is a case of will his jumping hold up in that scenario? At 2/1 we would be happy to take the view that it won’t.
With a view to the handicaps, it is just worth noting that the Irish handicapper has not taken lightly to a few of those races over the weekend. Backtonormal is up to a rating of 142 from 130 for winning the extended two-mile-five-furlong handicap chase on Sunday. McLaurey was given a 13lb rise to 133 for winning the two-mile handicap hurdle whilst the fast-finishing second in that race, Storm Heart, is +7lbs to a mark of 147.
Festival Favourites
Sky Bet’s popular Festival Favourites series runs each week in the lead up to the Cheltenham Festival.
It consists of a multiple which will be top-price across the industry and goes live every Monday for a limited time. A non-runner will result in bets being settled as an enhanced single.
Click here to back Ballyburn to win the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase and Galopin des Champs to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup at 5/1
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