Matt Brocklebank takes an early look at QIPCO British Champions Day and has a couple of big-priced selections to consider.
Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
Matt Brocklebank's running total (including Antepost Value Bet) from June 2020 to present: +245.96pts to advised stakes/prices.
Antepost Value Bet Tips: Saturday October 18
1pt win Wemightakedlongway in British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes at 20/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Fox Legacy in Champion Stakes at 25/1 (bet365, Unibet, BetMGM 1/5 1,2,3)
This year’s QIPCO Champion Stakes is hopefully going to be the jewel in the crown on October 18 and even if we get a couple of the current top three in the betting showing up then it should be a really good spectacle.
Calandagan and Ombudsman are undoubtedly two of the middle-distance stars of 2025, each collecting a couple of Group 1s along the way, and there’s no obvious reason to believe they won’t be able to hold their form right through to the depths of autumn despite being on the go since April and May respectively.
Ombudsman has his top-class course and distance win in the bag after beating Anmaat (on very fast ground) in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, while we know Francis Graffard's Calandagan also relishes Ascot having visited three times and cleared off back to France with two prestigious prizes.
His sole defeat at the course came on this day last year when getting stuck in a pocket behind weakening rivals for a fraction too long, before ultimately getting picked off by Anmaat having looked to have done most of the hard work.
Anmaat, 7/1 at best this year compared to when springing a 40/1 surprise in last year’s Champion, is a consistent thread running through a lot of the key pieces of form, not least last weekend’s Irish Champion Stakes where he couldn’t quite reel in Aidan O’Brien’s Delacroix, who was given a fine ride by Christophe Soumillon.
Whether that turns out to be Delacroix’s last act still remains to be seen but he’d obviously be another big player here despite the race coming at the end of a long season for him as well.
Away from the head of the market, Godolphin’s less-heralded Tornado Alert is vaguely appealing although he’s reportedly being aimed towards the Bahrain International Trophy before Dubai, while Calandagan’s connections also have Daryz engaged and he at least looks to be back on an upward trajectory having been a long-term Arc de Triomphe fancy of mine.
The very smart filly Whirl might come into the equation for this too after spectacularly failing to seal her free Arc supplementary entry when last of six in the Prix Vermeille, but that run could hardly have been less bet-inspiring. The Prix de l’Opera back at 10 furlongs seems the likely next port of call for her now.
Almaqam, also in action on the recent Qatar Arc Trials Day card having fared quite well when third in the Prix Foy, has a notable length and three-quarter verdict over Ombudsman from the Brigadier Gerard on his CV, but he hasn’t been able to deliver on that in two subsequent starts. Expecting Ed Walker’s horse to simply grow another leg on testing ground next month could be asking too much – he was beaten by Jayarebe on soft at Longchamp last October, don’t forget.
One possible contender who is without question a different horse when there’s plenty of ease underfoot is White Birch. He’s already a Group 1 winner at the trip having hammered Auguste Rodin in last year’s Tattersalls Gold Cup, and if you focus purely on his mile and a quarter form when the ground has been officially described as soft or heavy you get form figures of 111.
I was slightly surprised, then, to learn that he’s being trained for the Arc and, given that recent report also stated it would be either the French race or Ascot for the grey, rather than both, I can’t be suggesting him as a good bet antepost, despite the stiff 10 furlongs on a right-handed track in deep ground looking right up this horse's street.
Balding improver set to pounce?
It was interesting to see how the market reacted after Saturday’s victory for Almeric in the Listed Doonside Cup at Ayr, some firms going as short as 12/1 but others happy to dangle 33s.
I’d be a bit taken aback if his trainer Andrew Balding threw him into a race of this nature, especially as he’s also got FOX LEGACY engaged, and it’s the King Power runner who interests me most at 25/1 (20s also fine).
With Never So Brave gunning for the Queen Elizabeth II and More Thunder well in the mix for the Champions Sprint, it could be a remarkable afternoon for former Sir Michael Stoute-trained horses and there’s no question Fox Legacy has taken off on a remarkable journey since arriving at Balding’s yard.
The son of Lope De Vega has made four starts this term and gone from winning a nine-furlong handicap off 90 on the Rowley Mile back in the spring to bolting up in a conditions event at Goodwood last month, that most recent win seeing his Timeform rating shoot up again to 117.
Sandwiched between those two races were a creditable effort in the Hunt Cup (first of seven that raced in a small centre group) and a tremendous success from stall 19 in the John Smith’s Cup at York.
The revised rating still leaves him around stone shy of Ombudsman but he’s within hailing distance of Anmaat (125), Almaqam (124) and White Birch (120+) so he’s got each-way claims on what he’s already achieved, and it’s the potential for further improvement that makes him so fascinating.
WATCH: Fox Legacy wins easily at Goodwood on August 1
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You sensed his five and a half-length winning margin over Jeff Koons (to whom the winner was conceding 3lb) at Goodwood last time could have been doubled had Oisin Murphy been keen on the idea, and he does remind me slightly of the Stoute-trained Bay Bridge, who went from an official mark of 90 at the start of his three-year-old campaign to winning the following year’s Champion. It’s also worth recalling that Anmaat himself won the John Smith’s Cup en route to becoming a Champion Stakes hero, so it’s not unheard of by any means.
Fox Legacy has, admittedly, done most of his racing on a sound surface but there was some juice in the ground for his eyecatching effort at Leicester last May and again at Goodwood (officially good to soft) last time, for all that it was much closer to good ground based on times.
His ability to travel powerfully and quicken is the most appealing asset and that should stand him in good stead against the proven push-button Group 1 performers at the top of the market here. I doubt very much he will look out of place and I just hope connections are bold enough to roll the dice.
O'Brien can strike with progressive filly
Last year’s winner Kind Of Blue is top of my shortlist for the QIPCO British Champions Sprint Stakes but I’d like to know the full make-up of the race really as Wathnan might not run all three of theirs, while the draw is a major consideration too.
The aforementioned More Thunder is a player and if the ground is bottomless on the day then it might be worth giving another chance to James’s Delight at what seems sure to be a huge price (currently 50s) but, again, it’s just not a race I want to be getting involved with quite this far out.
Taking on Field Of Gold in the QEII isn’t something I’d be against per se, but that could be another challenge I’ll take on closer to the time, whereas I image the British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes will cut up and look very different to the one we’re faced with if listing them in price order at this point. That's arguably the best time to strike a bet, proving you can successfully navigate those nuances.
Kalpana, Minnie Hauk, Aventure, Gezora and Estrange are among the top six in the betting for this and all of them will potentially line up in next month's Arc. Should one of them win in Paris then their Ascot participation would inevitably come into question; if they’re beaten then in all probability they'll drift in the antepost market for Champions Day.
The difficult part is identifying the one who can muscle in on the action but this race has been all about the three-year-olds (eight of the past 10 winners from the Classic generation) and I’ve settled on the Joseph O’Brien-trained WEMIGHTTAKEDLONGWAY, who has a smart turn of foot and handles all types of ground.
The slight issue is that the daughter of Australia has been out of action since July 19, but she did start off by running against Delacroix in the Ballysax at the end of March so you can understand why she might have needed a break having since taken in the Oaks, Pretty Polly and the Irish Oaks.
The Irish Oaks performance, when second to Arc favourite Minnie Hauk (replay below), who she had actually beaten by two and a half lengths in a Cork maiden last year, was a new career best from Wemightakedlongway and I’ve no real concerns about her getting the mile and a half trip at Ascot on that evidence.
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Discover Sporting Life Plus BenefitsHer soft-ground form when beating Catalina Delcarpio in a Navan Group 3 earlier in the spring reads well enough and she’s obviously held in very high regard having been pitched in against not only the colts but the older fillies too at the Curragh in June.
She actually ran a hugely encouraging race that day, coming from the back of the field to finish fourth behind Whirl and Kalpana – who had dictated from the off – and the general 20/1 on offer about her could be long gone if and when she’s confirmed to be on target for the meeting.
O'Brien has yet to win the Champions Fillies & Mares but he did have the 25/1 fifth last year and 12/1 fourth the year before that so isn't afraid to target the race, and I'm very much hoping this one has been laid out for the autumn, with the 10-furlong Prix de l'Opera presumably a tempting option en route to Ascot.
Published at 1600 BST on 21/09/25
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