Champion Stakes tips: Who is worth a bet at Ascot?
Our man looks at the five Group races on QIPCO British Champions Day and pinpoints the horses he thinks are potentially overpriced at this stage.
1.25 QIPCO Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2)
Waterville is hot in the betting here, though can he really dethrone two-time winner Trueshan with rain expected?
Aidan O’Brien reckons he’s a ‘massive’ horse who could be a potential king of the Cup division next season based on last month’s extraordinary win the Irish Cesarewitch, but he’s still got a relatively massive job on his hands to make the smooth transition from handicapper to Group-race hero.
Timeform have him down as an ‘exciting’ prospect at four and it’s not hard to take a similar view after eventually mowing down the classy and versatile Echoes In Rain from what looked an impossible position two furlongs out at the Curragh.
That made it 2-2 over distances of 2m+ for the son of Camelot – he shares the same dam as Irish Oaks winner and Arc runner-up Sea Of Class – and despite the gulf that remains between their respective ratings, Waterville could quite conceivably be measuring up to Trueshan in the fulness of time, there just has to be a doubt as to whether that will be achieved as early as this weekend.
Eldar Eldarov is the other three-year-old snapping around Trueshan’s ankles and there’s no denying he has achieved more than Waterville to this point.
His one blip came on ground a fair bit quicker than advertised (good to soft, officially) in the Paris sunshine at Longchamp in July and he took a big step forward for the return to easier conditions, and longer trip, in last month’s St Leger (replay below).
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Not many quality Dubawis have peaked after five starts so further progress looks almost guaranteed and there was precious little in the Doncaster effort that would give you concerns about him tackling two miles for the first time.
He’s already rated higher than Trueshan’s Doncaster Cup conqueror Coltrane and the weight-for-age allowance is still 9lb over this trip at this time of year, which underlines the fact why he’s shorter in the market than Andrew Balding’s horse. There's a near-watertight form argument for him being shorter than Waterville too.
Overpriced: Eldar Eldarov at 4/1
2.00 QIPCO British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1)
They won’t be hock-deep this year by all accounts but a tough attitude and/or ability to stay further than the advertised six furlongs has often been the difference between winners and losers in the Champions Sprint.
Back-to-back winners are few and far between which may put a few off the top of the market where Creative Force currently resides, though he was evidently still operating close to his peak 2021 level when chinned at Royal Ascot and fourth in the July Cup when last seen in action this summer.
The subsequent layoff essentially comes down to him missing Haydock’s Betfair Sprint Cup due to the oddly quick ground at the time and, having been Appleby’s first ever runner on a Champions Day card when winning 12 months ago, his form claims – combined with that proven versatility around trip and ground – are pretty obvious once more.
Rohaan is the epitome of an Ascot specialist and Brad The Brief would love a Friday night deluge of rain, but if stamina is what you’re after, Kinross is the answer after his coming-of-age G1 win in the Foret.
You can’t argue that hadn’t been coming either as he’s looked better than ever as a five-year-old and another glance at last year’s Champions Day effort shows a strict reading of the form does not suffice. Dettori was badly squeezed when first looking to mount his run and was ultimately left with no option but to push him out hands-and-heels to finish ninth long after all chance of winning had evaporated.
The Frankie factor can’t be underestimated at any Ascot meeting and Kinross – who has never won a six-furlong race of any description but possesses all the qualities for this particular test - being sent off well-backed on Saturday would come as no shock. He really should be favourite.
Overpriced: Kinross at 6/1
2.40 QIPCO British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1)
A good race for the Fillies & Mares – probably a slightly better one that Eshaada won 12 months ago. She remains a key form figure, though, after being brushed aside by the hooded Mimikyu in the Park Hill at Doncaster last month.
The Gosden-trained Mimikyu has the hallmarks of a late-blooming, strong-staying filly from a family the yard knows so well – she’s a full-sister to Journey who won this event in 2016 – and the headgear has obviously triggered a good deal of improvement.
Whether she’s suddenly the stable first-string here could be a little hasty as a back-to-form Emily Upjohn strictly has the better form based on her Musidora cakewalk and subsequent near-miss behind Tuesday in the Oaks at Epsom.
There was no explanation offered for her rogue run in the King George though we can read between the lines, and 84-day absence, to assume something somewhere must have been amiss.
Emily Upjohn is a risky bet on the face of it, whereas Sea La Rosa looks about as rock-solid as they come, for all that she may lack a little on the sexiness scale. Her change of gear is not instant but her transformation from maiden at two, to Listed scorer at three, to G1 winner at four is testament to trainer William Haggas.
If she’s found wanting for speed back in trip, the equally progressive Eternal Pearl may look to exploit the situation. She fluffed her lines in a Newbury maiden at the end of May but hasn’t looked back since, winning four times around this mile and a half distance.
Her Dubai Stakes form was let down fractionally by runner-up Peripatetic finishing only fourth in another Group 3 back there last Friday.
Shaara was only sixth in that Pride Stakes last week which takes a little bit of the gloss off Mise En Scene’s Yarmouth near-miss, though James Ferguson’s filly does remain a potential dark horse if asked to tackle a mile and a half for the first time here. It'll be interesting to see if she improves for it as you'd be hopeful based on the dam’s side of her pedigree, and she’s a little overlooked in the betting at present.
Overpriced: Mise En Scene at 33/1
3.20 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Sponsored by QIPCO) (Group 1)
Just the 10 left in contention at the five-day stage, Inspiral hardening at the head of the market, although she was already a fraction of odds-on after it became clear Maljoom had lost his race to be fit in time.
She’s got a lot to recommend her, that much is clear, including the course and distance form when visually very impressive in the Coronation Stakes at the Royal meeting. It was quick underfoot that day and soft ground would be new to her so, while as a daughter of Frankel you’d expect her to handle anything the weather has to throw at the place, it is an unchecked box in which you’d prefer to see a tick.
Sticking with the ground, Charlie Appleby won’t be desperate to run Modern Games in gruelling conditions ahead of his return to America where the Breeders’ Cup Mile has been the long-term goal for a while Checkandchallenge wasn’t disgraced at Longchamp but might be more effective on a sound surface too.
That could leave the door slightly ajar for something else and Bayside Boy is interesting if the blinkers are retained (and do the same job in switching him on) on the back of his soft-ground confidence-booster at Sandown last month.
The one who is underestimated most, however, is Tempus who was third – a place behind Bayside Boy’s stablemate El Drama – when a slow start did for him in the Joel Stakes at Newmarket. He’s normally quickly away and prominent from the off, so it was another really sound effort in the circumstances.
A half-brother to Time Test, he’s finally living up to his breeding as a six-year-old this time around and there’s no way I’d be laying him at the odds on offer given his quality course record and ability to handle cut in the ground.
Overpriced: Tempus at 25/1
4.00 QIPCO Champion Stakes (Group 1)
Much will be made of Baaeed’s attempt to sign off with a perfect record intact but it does basically boil down to whether Adayar can find a little more improvement which may seem unlikely, but is far from impossible.
Only William Buick knows precisely what feel he was giving him in the three-runner conditions race at Doncaster last month but, from the outside looking in, it appeared to more than resemble the 2021 Adayar that won the Derby by a wide margin before smashing up Mishriff in the King George.
A heavy-ground Arc left its mark but Appleby wasn’t interested in making the same mistake again and Adayar has only got around 7lb to find with a horse described by Timeform as ‘one of the very best at any distance in Europe this century’.
He’s the only genuine threat on paper and will cope with conditions, something we assume is likely to be the case with Baaeed, though connections were quick to temper enthusiasm heading into last year’s QEII when there was seemingly a real danger of him being pulled out had it become desperate.
Baaeed has never raced on officially soft going which leaves me with the feeling there’s slightly too big a discrepancy in their prices at present.
Overpriced: Adayar at 4/1
Published at 1545 BST on 10/10/22
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