The famous Cesarewitch Handicap comes under the microscope in Matt Brocklebank's latest preview and he's got an Irish-trained 14/1 shot on his mind.
Antepost Value Bet tips: Cesarewitch, October 9
1pt win Coltor in Together For Racing International Cesarewitch Handicap at 14/1 (General)
Irish domination to continue?
Willie Mullins has won the last three runnings of the Together For Racing International Cesarewitch Handicap so it’s no surprise he has the clear favourite this year in M C Muldoon (8/1).
At this stage that one looks the first choice from the Irish trainer’s quite remarkable 15 initial entries, but things will become clearer after Tuesday’s scratching stage and it looks worth having a bet elsewhere before the field is whittled down a little.
Inevitably, the Irish challenge doesn’t start and end with W P Mullins, including three likely types currently still in the mix for nephew Emmet, in Cape Gentleman, Zero Ten and Crowns Major.
The talented but fragile eight-year-old Zero Ten looks one of the more interesting having readily won a Grade Three novice chase over two miles, two furlongs last March, and his Flat form this summer over shorter distances looks highly encouraging in terms of the ability remaining intact.
However, he’s probably not been completely missed by the BHA handicappers with a mark of 98 if taking in the Cesarewitch ahead of a likely return to jumping through the winter.
Weld with vintage preparation...
Conversely, one potential Irish hope who may have slipped through the British assessor's net slightly is the Dermot Weld-trained COLTOR, who was teed up for the Fred Winter at Cheltenham last jumps season and ended up running a good race in fifth.
He's had mixed fortunes in a couple of 2021 Flat outings since the Festival, showing next to nothing in first-time cheekpieces on really bad ground at the Curragh in May before returning a couple of months later with a game victory under Finian Maguire (click for free replay) in the valuable amateur riders’ race over two miles and a furlong at Galway.
A request was made to explain the apparent improvement in form from Coltor’s previous start, the trainer stating better underfoot conditions and the application of a tongue-strap may have contributed, but either way the Galway win smacked of a horse still very much heading in the right direction as a stayer in both codes.
There are few shrewder operators in racing when it comes to keeping the powder dry for a big day and after hitting the target at a meeting and in a race that obviously means a lot to him, it should be no surprise to see the horse having been laid out for another big pot by Weld – one he last won with Vintage Crop in 1992.
The Cesarewitch is Coltor's only entry at the time of writing and while his participation is not guaranteed, Weld has already snared one major staying prize in Britain this year in the Chester Cup so must be at least considering it very seriously. At 14/1 generally he’s the one to get on side at this point.
Zee best of British chances
The home team could be up against it once more if the majority of the raiders stand their ground, though Elysian Flame – reopposing M C Muldoon on the same terms as when just behind him in the Ascot Stakes – is a solid each-way option at 16/1 without looking a likely plunge horse in the lead-up to the race.
At 20/1 Zeeband also remains of some interest. He’s not got many miles on the clock at all and really impressed with the way he went about his business in the first-time visor when winning the Northumberland Vase at Newcastle in June.
Raised 8lb for that subsequently, I’m not convinced it was the new mark which scuppered his follow-up bid back on turf at Newbury the following month, rather the first time the son of Sea The Stars had encountered genuinely fast ground.
His trainer Roger Varian will be hoping the going eases appreciably over the next three weeks, in which case Zeeband’s revised mark of 95 (eased 1lb from Newbury) could prove manageable.
Elsewhere, David O’Meara’s Makawee is a half-sister to Prince Of Arran and her form at two miles-plus reads 2203, which leads me to believe she could still have a bit more to offer in marathon races of this nature.
She may have been feeling the effects of her fair Ebor run when well below form back over a mile and a half at Doncaster last time and could bounce back in a race she won in 2020 at Goodwood this Wednesday.
However, Makawee is already 3lb ‘wrong’ in the Cesarewitch so another 4lb penalty wouldn’t be welcome at all which puts me off chancing her, even at 50/1 (bet365).
Published at 1600 BST on 19/09/21
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