Cazoo Oaks tips: Rory Delargy horse by horse guide to Friday's Epsom Classic
Cazoo Oaks (Group 1)
- When: 4.30pm, Friday June 4
- Where: Epsom Downs Racecourse, Surrey
- TV: ITV1 & Racing TV (Sky channel 426)
- Odds: Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
- Racecard & FREE video form
Divinely
Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| Trainer: Aidan O’Brien| OR: 95
Full-sister to Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe heroine Found and landed a Group 3 in the mud last season. Improved further when two lengths fourth of eight to Sherbet Lemon in the Oaks Trial at Lingfield last time; seems held on that, but it would hardly be a shock if she progressed again in a well-run race and her stable has scored in this with less likely sorts in Was and Qualify.
Dubai Fountain
Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| Trainer: Mark Johnston| OR: 110
Ran her best race as a juvenile when a close fourth in the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile on soft ground, forcing the pace and shaping as well as any. Had the run of things when beating Zeyaadah in the Cheshire Oaks and not much between the pair given the latter had a penalty on that occasion. One of the likelier pace angles among the market leaders.
La Joconde
Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| Trainer: Aidan O’Brien| OR: 92
She’s no Mona Lisa (geddit?) and seemed to be outstayed when fourth in the Cheshire Oaks behind Dubai Fountain but this half-sister to Irish Derby and Queen’s Vase winner Santiago should get every yard of this trip on pedigree and it’s possible she was just a tad undercooked in her prep. Another O’Brien outsider who can’t be ignored despite the seeming enormity of her task.
Mystery Angel
Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| J: B A Curtis| Trainer: George Boughey| OR: 100
Tough and likeable filly who showed she’d trained on well when winning a sub-par Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket’s Guineas Meeting. Just a respectable fourth of seven to Snowfall in Musidora Stakes at York last time though and the prospect for further improvement isn’t obvious after five runs this season alone.
Ocean Road
Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| J: Oisin Murphy| Trainer: Hugo Palmer| OR: 95
Just a novice win in three starts to date and she’s been slow to stride each time. Latest length-and-three-quarter third of eight to Sherbet Lemon in Oaks Trial at Lingfield was very encouraging, as she lacked a prep run and the race was not run to suit her. Can’t afford to blow the start but remains open to above-average improvement and makes appeal for all she remains relatively inexperienced.
Saffron Beach
Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| J: A Kirby| Trainer: Jane Chapple-Hyam| OR: 109
Smart and progressive filly who has done all her racing on the Rowley Mile at Newmarket and kept on well when a length second to Mother Earth in the 1000 Guineas last time. She’s clearly got the class to play a prominent role but while bred to get a mile-and-a-quarter, stamina for this trip must be taken on trust, as must her ability to cope away from Newmarket.
Santa Barbara
Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Was heavily backed for the 1000 Guineas on the back of a single run last year and did well to be a close fourth given her inexperience. Clearly a potential superstar, and physically full of scope for improvement; her pedigree would also suggest the Oaks is more suitable than the Newmarket Classic. However the issue with her again is that two runs at shorter trips does not constitute an ideal preparation for a race of this magnitude and at a track this unforgiving.
Save A Forest
Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| J: Callum Shepherd| Trainer: Roger Varian| OR: 97
One of a trio in the final confirmations for the Roger Varian yard, she improved on the form of her Windsor handicap success when three-quarters-of-a-length second of 8 to Sherbet Lemon in the Oaks Trial at Lingfield. Benefited from her relative experience in that messy contest, however, and lacks the obvious potential of a few of her rivals.
Sherbet Lemon
Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| J: Hollie Doyle| Trainer: Archie Watson| OR: 99
Stayed on well when fourth to Noon Star at Wetherby, and much improved when winning the Oaks Trial at Lingfield. Came in for a very good ride in a race which was run at a very uneven tempo at Lingfield, and feeling is that she might be flattered in relation to a couple she beat, notably Ocean Road.
Snowfall
Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| Trainer: Aidan O’Brien| OR: 108
Seemed to have her limitations exposed as a juvenil but produced a career best on her return when making all in the Musidora Stakes at York, beating Noon Star and Teona by daylight. Appears a big player on that run, but she utilised her track-craft against inexperienced rivals there under a superbly judged ride, and that perfect storm isn’t sure to strike again.
Technique
Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| J: S M Levey| Trainer: Martyn Meade| OR: 97
Handles the track having finished a close second in the Blue Riband Trial here in April, but that race has not worked out at all despite looking fair form at the time. She was a disappointing seventh to Sherbet Lemon at Lingfield. Perhaps she wasn’t over her exertions, or found the soft ground against her there, but needs to put that well behind her.
Teona
Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| J: David Egan| Trainer: Roger Varian| OR: 100
Showed huge potential in two starts on Newcastle’s Tapeta as a two-year-old and improved despite failing to justify her reputation when third in the Musidora behind Snowfall. Got upset in the stalls and was too keen behind a steady pace there, so did well to thrown down a challenge. Sure to progress, but another for whom relative inexperience could be a stumbling block.
Willow
Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| Trainer: Aidan O'Brien| OR: 96
Her dam Peeping Fawn almost sprang a shock in Light Shift’s Oaks before showing herself the best of her generation, which remains a good reason to judge this stable’s late-maturing fillies kindly in races like this. Her best effort came when third in the Group 3 Blue Wind Stakes last time, which shows she’s progressing, but given she was prominent in the ante-post market for this race, her improvement appears too little, too late.
Zeyaadah
Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| J: Jim Crowley| Trainer: Roger Varian| OR: 105
Went into the notebook when producing a powerful and sustained run to beat Mystery Angel in the Listed Montrose Stakes in Newmarket’s November mud, and improved further when a length second to Dubai Fountain in the Cheshire Oaks on her return. Had to wait for a gap as winner got first run there and was conceding a penalt too, so it’s easy enough to see her turning the tables. Best form on soft/heavy, but she did land a novice on good ground last summer.
Who will win the Cazoo Oaks?
Aidan O’Brien has two clear and three less-obvious contenders. The pair with the best form have questions to answer, with Santa Barbara lacking the requisite experience for this contest, but looking to have enormous potential after a promising fourth in the Guineas. Snowfall stole the Musidora, and may not get so lucky a second time, and I’d rather be a backer of one of his outsiders given the stable has a record with getting such fillies right on the day. Divinely was beaten in a messy Oaks Trial at Lingfield, but will progress and could be the Cinderella story, if a full-sister to Found could be described as Cinderella.
La Joconde also shaped better than the result in the Cheshire Oaks for O’Brien, but she was beaten eight lengths there, and she will do well to overturn such a deficit, especially as Dubai Fountain and ZEYAADAH are likely to progress again. That comment applies especially to the latter, who had to carry a penalty for a Listed win as a juvenile, and shaped best of all having had to come from further back than the winner. Beaten jockey Jim Crowley was almost purring as he looked forward to a rematch in the immediate aftermath, and the only worry is whether she will cope if the ground comes up very quick.
The Musidora apparently pricked the bubbles of both Noon Star (now an absentee) and Teona, but neither had the tactical speed to cope with Ryan Moore’s masterful smash-and-grab ride on the winner, and both will do better for the lesson they were taught there. Noon Star comfortably disposed of Lingfield Trial winner Sherbet Lemon at Wetherby, but while the Musidora was clearly a better race on paper than the Lingfield contest, the likes of Divinely and Ocean Road were not seen to best effect in the latter, and collateral form has a habit of blowing up on big race days.
1. ZEYAADAH
2. Santa Barbara
3. Divinely
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