Betfred St Leger Festival analysis: Kieran Clark verdict

It’s safe to say that Doncaster loves a two-year-old contest as much as Glorious Goodwood does a fillies’ race and, with as many as 11 having been run at this meeting so far at the time of writing, there have been clues aplenty with a view to next season.

As a Timeform analyst, it’s within my role to obtain physical descriptions when on course which can provide vital insight with a view to a horse’s future when it may still be very much in the infancy of its career. Such descriptions are mainly broken down into four categories and I thought it best to provide such insight and list those who have stood out in each this week. Trackers at the ready!

I’ll start with size. The biggest juveniles I’ve seen this week are the progressive Half Sovereign – who looks a bargain buy at just 12,000 guineas – and the Coolmore-owned Brussels (are there any capital cities left for Mrs Magnier to pick from?!), both very forward for their generation (well-grown) and it possible that they won’t train on, though both are of firm interest next time and a sales race at Newmarket for the former in the coming weeks looks hers for the taking.

Elsewhere, there was lots to like about Calendar Girl (tall) who landed a valuable sales race, as well as the Flying Childers winner Revival Power of the same description, most of the rest in that Group 2 lacking size.

Next comes substance which effectively falls into two categories, those that are above average and below. I’ll stick with the positives, and you need look no further than the Shiekh Mohammed Obaid-owned pair McMurray (well-made) and Hankelow (strong, lengthy).

Both went off short-priced favourites with the former winning a nursery and the latter chinned on the line in a strong-looking listed race. Both possess the frame to be even better as three-year-olds and they’ll win their fair share.

As expected when dealing with inexperienced juveniles there were plenty who have filling out to do, these obtained the Timeform description of ‘unfurnished’ and are ones to keep on side for a while, chiefly the unbeaten Avicenna (tall, unfurnished) who denied the aforementioned Hankelow and, to a much less obvious degree, Tres Chaud (lengthy, unfurnished), who put in some good late headway when sixth in a deep-looking maiden won by the Group-1 entered Classic Cuvee, watch out for her next time and into next year, likely to come on a bundle fitness wide, too.

The third category is shape, a more wide-ranging one but again the principal descriptions are derived from variations from the average, in terms of length, height and width. One that impressed in this regard was the beaten May Hill favourite Moon Target (lengthy), who certainly has more improvement to come and can be excused her effort having received no cover from the strong headwind that plagued the opening day’s card.

Rangy is another often-used term to describe one of above average height, length and quality and the William Haggas-trained Fractional must go down as the biggest eyecatcher of the meeting, looking backward beforehand but the penny really dropping late on in the valuable fillies’ maiden mentioned earlier, very much deserving of a Timeform P.

Finally, we reach quality. This one rather sums up the overall impression that the horse has created and is more to do with looks than shape. Frescobaldi (lengthy, quite attractive) acquitted himself well in the Flying Scotsman and has more to give as he matures, as does Ayling of a similar description. She may have been seen to advantage in the May Hill by sheltering from the wind but is a striking type, for all that the Fillies’ Mie might be a bridge too far.

Ground for concern

Another major Festival and another controversial going change. On times the ground was borderline good to firm following Friday’s card and, after half an hour of rain before the Champagne Stakes, the going description was changed by the Clerk of the course David Attwood from good, good to soft in places to soft following the next race, presumably on advice of the riders as there was little reason to based on the time, something that was backed up by later races.

The Park Stakes was run nearly three seconds faster than the Timeform standard which strongly suggested that the going was still no worse than good, as did the truly-run St Leger.

This is by no means the first instance this season at a major Flat Festival of the official going description bearing little resemblance to one based around race times and while huge strides have been made around data provision to allow racing fans to make far better informed decisions, it is a pity that the ground, considered by many to be one of the most important factors by punters when making their selections, remains decided on such an anachronistic approach.

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