Go on, at what stage, post Newmarket, did you expect to see City Of Troy trading as 7/4 favourite for the Betfred Derby?
There was plenty of 6/1 available in the moments that followed the lacklustre return behind Notable Speech in the QIPCO 2000 Guineas and the conservative layers weren’t exactly knocked over.
And it’s not as if he’s returned to the summit off the back of the mystery of that performance being completely solved.
Aidan O’Brien thinks he had him too fresh.
No reports either of Frankel-esque gallops, the son of Justity hasn’t thundered past the local commuter service in Tipperary, although had Sir Henry Cecil’s behemoth been based in Yorkshire and got the better of a Transpennine or Northern Rail offering he’d only have been following in the wake of countless joggers, cyclists and sedate walkers.
No, he’s there because the trials are over and the picture is murkier than when they began.
Charlie Appleby looked to hold a very strong hand, but it’s been weakened, tragically in the case of Hidden Law and frustratingly with Arabian Crown.
The former briefly lit up the Classic picture when storming clear of his rivals to win the Chester Vase and put himself on course for Derby favouritism only to sustain a leg fracture moments after passing the line. We will never know the ceiling of his ability.
Such a loss will of course have meant his trainer was able to put into context the news on Friday morning that Sandown Trial hero Arabian Crown would have to skip Epsom following a small setback.
Now he’s left with Ancient Wisdom who reappeared in Thursday's Al Basti Equiworld Dante Stakes only to receive an increasingly distant rear-view of Economics.
A mile-and-a-half will suit, cut in the ground too, and with the news of his stablemate’s absence connections are more likely to roll the dice now than they were as he circled in front of them after the York race.
I’m not sure those of the Dante winner are.
Look, if it were you or me making the decision – we’d roll the dice. Yep, we took him out in the first place, but £75,000 to win £850,000 – and you’re 7/4 with-a-run to do just that? We’re edging towards no-brainer territory.
Throw in a meaty Timeform rating off the back of the Dante - 121p - which means he’s the second highest in the race and only two pounds below the p-less City Of Troy. It’s game on.
But then listen to the William Haggas's pre-race interview on Wednesday's Nick Luck Daily Podcast. Even before the fireworks that followed in the afternoon there were doubts about whether the Derby was the right way to go with the son of Night Of Thunder.
On pedigree the stamina isn’t copper-bottomed for a mile-and-a-half. He’s a big colt, a work in progress. He’s come a long way in a short space of time but his two wins this spring have been on the galloping terrain of Newbury and York.
His education wasn’t fast-tracked at Lingfield or Chester. How will he handle the undulations, camber, the occasion? It will all be factored in.
He would add so much to the race, though. Because if you look beyond the top two in the market using Timeform ratings, your next port of call is Ancient Wisdom. Yes, distant Dante second Ancient Wisdom on 118.
Then there’s the feel-good story and runaway Lingfield trial winner Ambiente Friendly on 117. James Fanshawe and Bill Gredley combining for a Derby winner? Now that’s refreshingly different.
But maybe we’re heading into one of ‘those’ Derbies – where the stamina-laden Ballydoyle second or third string prove too strong for their rivals in that final, lung-bursting two furlongs. Come on, you’ve seen them plenty of times before.
Step forward Dee Stakes winner Capulet (112p) and Leopardstown Trial hero Los Angeles (110p).
Elsewhere, well the cupboard is getting a little bare. Bellum Justum (103p) earned his place in the line-up when winning the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom.
Dancing Gemini (114) is a son of Camelot who looked a little unfortunate not to win the French 2000 Guineas. He’s trained by Roger Teal who appears inclined to roll the dice and go for gold in the blue riband.
He might be the horse of a lifetime for these connections and while it’s clearly a very different test to the stop-start sprint over a mile at ParisLongchamp, the dam won over ten furlongs and is from a relatively stout family. And this looks a Derby where it’s worth a roll of the dice.
There are two horses in it who look like they could blow it apart. One is City Of Troy, all 16.1 hands of him. After Auguste Rodin last year, we know how this story can end.
But the other is Economics; rapidly improving Economics. Much to ponder for William, Maureen and the colt’s owners. Despite his name, this isn’t about a financial gamble. If it was, he'd run.
It's down to gut feeling over whether he’s ready for the test, if it's the right move at this stage of his fledgling career.
Too high too soon, a price can be paid. Reputations have been shattered at Epsom. It's almost a yearly occurrence. But the chance to win the Derby? This Derby. When you’re only two pounds off the favourite, who was 43 short of his peak figure on the most recent start?
If you’re fit and firing, it’s going to be very hard to say no.
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