Best value bets: Preview & tips for Newmarket & Ascot on Saturday October 2
Value Bet tips: Saturday, October 2
1pt win Ms Gandhi in 1.45 Newmarket at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Foden in 2.20 Newmarket at 12/1 (BetVictor)
1pt win Ascension in 3.50 Ascot at 18/1 (BetVictor)
Foden backed to score for Hannon
Something has evidently clicked back into gear at Ballydoyle recently and while Aidan O’Brien’s prospects of claiming more Group One success in Paris this weekend may effectively rest on the shoulders of Snowfall in the Arc, Mother Earth could be hard to beat in Saturday’s Newmarket feature.
The 1000 Guineas and Prix Rothschild winner compares very favourably to O’Brien’s three previous Kingdom Of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes victors – namely Halfway To Heaven, Alice Springs and Roly Poly – and she was clearly desperately unlucky having been blocked in her path en route to finishing third under a helpless Ryan Moore in the Matron Stakes last time out.
Having her sixth start of year at Leopardstown, the busy campaign doesn’t look like catching up with her and returning to the Rowley Mile – the scene of her Classic success back in May – is a positive.
I'd expect her to reverse Falmouth form with Richard Hannon's Snow Lantern on easier ground here and the 7/2 about the O'Brien runner doesn’t look bad business at all despite the 5s and 6/1 from midweek now a distant memory.
Nothing appeals significantly away from the top two in the market so as it stands I’d rather swerve the feature entirely and have a small dart at Snow Lantern’s stablemate FODEN in the £150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes.
The Hannon team has always been deadly in these races (including winning this is 2017) and relatively cheap purchase Foden (9,500 guineas) looks like he’ll love the underfoot conditions and big-field scenario of this event, having fairly dotted up on soft in a 13-runner maiden at Lingfield when last seen in June.
That came on the back of a really promising debut third when very slowly away and he was duly much better from the gate second time out. He was niggled along in fifth three furlongs from the finish but suddenly arrived on the scene pulling double and was ultimately eased right down to win by five and a half lengths.
The bare form looks flaky enough (0-24 subsequent winners), admittedly, but he was in another parish completely and impressed on the clock as well. With room for plenty of further improvement and the drop back to six furlongs looking an interesting move, the son of Garswood could be up to taking advantage of the 10lb he gets from Mill Reef third Fearby.
Gandhi has plenty in her favour back at 10f
The other race I’m drawn to for a bet at HQ is the British EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap, in which MS GANDHI is expected to appreciate a return to 10 furlongs.
The daughter of Kingman (whose progeny do well in the autumn on the whole) looked to be going places when readily beating the in-form Myristica by a couple of lengths at Ripon in mid-August, and I’m not going to hold last month’s Doncaster third against her too heavily.
Tackling a mile and a half for the first time on Town Moor, she was a bit too keen at the back as the leaders dawdled through the early stages. Ms Gandhi consequently wasn’t in a great position when the tempo increased and winner Sea La Rosa got first run, but Roger Varian's horse showed a nice change of gear to try and mount a challenge before her effort rather flattened out in the final furlong.
Based on that performance she’ll be better suited back at this shorter trip, with a decent pace to aim at courtesy of The Flying Ginger and Swoon, and I don’t imagine softer ground will be an issue at all given her half-sister Baby Pink won twice on heavy going.
Stick with Varian team at Ascot
There’s a really good card at Ascot as well, right through from the fillies’ Listed race which kicks things off to the closing contest – a 0-105 five-furlong handicap.
The best bet among the lot could be fellow Varian inmate ASCENSION in the Equine Productions 'The Fall' Challenge Cup.
His trainer didn’t have a brilliant September by his own high standards (11-71 at 15%) but I’d expect the Newmarket man to end the season strongly as he has a bunch of a horses who love to get their toe into the ground.
Dark Angel gelding Ascension is right among them, with all four of his turf wins coming on ground described as good to soft or soft. He also has placed form on heavy going so the recent rain will be music to the ears of connections.
Regular readers may recall I fancied him for the big mile handicap – the Clipper Logistics - at the Ebor Festival but he was withdrawn at York on the morning of the race when the wet stuff failed to materialise until later in the week.
As touched upon then, this is a horse who has always come good towards the back end of his campaign so it was slightly surprising to see him winning at Newbury in May, though the ground came right for him there and he took full advantage, readily defying a mark of 95 in the process.
He’s now only 4lb higher after a couple of starts in red-hot handicap company, the most recent of which saw him travel really well before simply not getting home in the 10-furlong John Smith’s Cup.
Cutting right back in trip is going to be a challenge at Ascot but it’s one I expect him to relish given the way he goes through his races (the Newbury handicap was over a mile) and it’s not like he doesn’t have strong seven-furlong form in the book too, having won twice at the distance last August/September.
The form book also highlights the fact he doesn’t have any positive Ascot form to his name but one course appearance – in a fast-ground Hunt Cup when not getting a clear run anyway - isn’t enough evidence to suggest he doesn’t like the place, and at the prices I’m more than willing to give him another chance this weekend.
Published at 1600 BST on 01/10/21
Where can I watch the Saturday racing?
- Newmarket 13:45, 14:20, 14:55; Ascot 14:05, 14:40, 15:15, 15:50, Redcar 15:35
- TV: ITV4, Racing TV (426), Sky Sports Racing (415)
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