Our form expert has three selections for Friday's action at Windsor live on ITV as the three-day Winter Million begins.
The Verdict: Friday January 16
1pt win Bluey in 14.25 Windsor at 11/2 (Paddy Power)
1pt win Altobelli in 15.00 Windsor at 8/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Milldam in 15.35 Windsor at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
Go for a Mill at Winter Million
It’s day one of the Winter Million at Windsor on Friday and after a very wet Thursday afternoon it’s going to be testing enough ground given they already had 36mm in the week leading up to Wednesday.
That’s not unusual at this time of year but it is worth bearing in mind in the Fitzdares Sovereign Handicap Hurdle over two miles at 15:35 as a lot of the recent form on show in this race has come on much better conditions.
Wilful’s well represented Ascot form came on Good to Soft ground, for example, and those strong travellers who thrive on quicker terrain might just come unstuck here in the mud with a strong gallop also likely on the cards in this big field.
I’m happy to look away from the obvious form lines that dominate the betting and with conditions firmly in mind, along with his price, I’m drawn to the claims of Jamie Snowden’s MILLDAM at 25/1.
This horse loves it when the mud is flying having won his last four races when the ground has been officially heavy and after running down the field on better ground on his last three runs he’s dropped 5lb in the weights to a mark of 127.
That’s just 2lb above his last winning rating when he ground things out on the front end in Haydock heavy 13 months ago, and he becomes of interest now that conditions have swung much more in his favour.
He isn’t always the most fluent of jumpers but Snowden has found a good race for him in that regard here with just eight hurdles to negotiate and I’d expect him to be ridden far more prominently than he has been so far this season which looks the place to be on this sharp track.
His trainer had a couple of winners here at the November meeting and with the conditions set to possibly turn the formbook on its head the bookies look to have underestimated Milldam’s chance under Gavin Sheehan.
The Verdict: Back MILLDAM in the 15.35 Windsor
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Bluey can show her class
Earlier on at Windsor Emma Lavelle’s BLUEY can defy top weight in the Fitzdares Telephone And Text Betting Service Mares' Handicap Chase over 2m4f.
The seven-year-old was a good novice hurdler and ran a close second to the now 140-rated Jubilee Alpha over timber at this meeting last year, but she has improved significantly for seeing a fence.
She jumped like a natural on chasing debut when winning at Kempton in October and then was beaten only four lengths when giving subsequent Grade 2 winner Mambonumberfive 4lb at Newbury’s Coral Gold Cup meeting.
Last time she ran well again when beaten almost five lengths by the reopposing Hollygrove Cha Cha in heavy ground at Exeter, but this switchback track isn’t guaranteed to suit that horse as she can jump to her left.
Bluey gets a 6lb pull at the weights, as well, to help her cause, and I like her going out in trip to 2m4f as she’s a 3m point-to-point winner who is very much bred for this intermediate distance.
Lavelle has given her a wind op since she was last seen and the stats tell us she is 12 wins from 48 at 25% first time after wind surgery, so there’s a good case to be made for Bluey disputing outright favouritism in this with her yard also going well.
The Verdict: Back BLUEY in the 14.25 Windsor
‘Belli fly for a Fry guy
Finally, ALTOBELLI looks worth a bet in the Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide Hurdle at 8/1 with the race conditions working in his favour.
He gets weight from everything bar Royal Infantry and the handicapper considers him to be a 9lb better horse than that rival off level weights and the 8lb he gets from Nemean Lion and Potters Charm gives him a real chance.
Indeed, he was only beaten just over a length by the latter in the Ascot Hurdle on his reappearance when getting 3lb, while he didn’t stay when highly tried in the Grade 1 Long Walk over three miles last time.
He’ll be much more at home over this 2m4f trip, has no problem with this sort of ground, and trainer Harry Fry was two from four at this meeting last year after wins for Gidleigh Park and Idaho Sun.
The Verdict: Back ALTOBELLI in the 15.00 Windsor
Preview posted at 16:00 GMT on 15/01/26
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