Our form expert struck with 11/2 advised winner Ma Shantou last weekend and he has three selections for Saturday's ITV action.
The Verdict: Saturday January 31
1pt win Lylian in 13:25 Sandown at 14/1 (Paddy Power, 12/1 General)
1pt win Welsh Charger in 13:43 Musselburgh at 9/2 (General)
1pt win Dr T J Eckleburg in 14:02 Sandown at 6/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
0.5pts e.w. Monty’s Star in 15:30 Leopardstown at 50/1 (CANCELLED)
Dr to provide a tonic for Williams
The weather is causing a few issues in England and Ireland with Sandown subject to a 7.30am inspection Saturday morning and Leopardstown due to look half an hour later ahead of day one of the Dublin Racing Festival.
In Dublin they’ve had 193mm of rain in the last fortnight and they could get up to 20mm more on Saturday, so that card looks in the balance, but clerk of the course Andrew Cooper sounded more positive about Sandown’s prospects.
I’d be more hopeful for the Esher track ahead of their Grade 1 Virgin Bet Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase meeting and while I’m in no mad rush to take on the Irish raiders in the feature there are some handicaps to get stuck into on the undercard.
I like the look of the Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Handicap Chase at 14:02 as there should be a strong pace to aim at here with Haddex Des Obeaux, Escapeandevade, Classic Maestro and Hypotenus in the field.
That could bring the closers into it in what could be an attritional finish up the Sandown hill and in such a scenario last year’s second DR T J ECKLEBURG appeals for Evan Williams.
In last year’s race he effectively ran off a mark of 124 given he raced from out of the weights and 12 months on he gets a 4lb pull on that form with the winner Gunsight Ridge who might not have held on in another 100 yards.
Dr T J confirmed his well being three weeks later when winning at Chepstow but he hasn’t hit those highs since in seven defeats.
However, he has dropped a stone in the weights this season back to 120 and there was much more to like about his latest third at Windsor in first-time cheekpieces where he kept on well to be beaten just five lengths in soft ground at 40/1.
He relishes testing ground and he has lots of soft and heavy form, while his rating has plummeted after racing on much quicker conditions in his most recent starts.
A test at this trip is exactly what he wants and in his optimum scenario he’s worth backing now given he is well treated on his best form.
The Verdict: Back DR T J ECKLEBURG in the 14.02 Sandown
Lyli to savage Sandown rivals
I can’t process a Sandown testing ground card without considering a Gary (and Josh) Moore-trained horse and while Nassalam will have his supporters in the finale I like the look of stable second-string LYLIAN in the Virgin Bet A Good Bet Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase over 2m4f.
The Moores must think a lot of this horse as he went off 4/1 on his stable debut at Ascot in November against No Questions Asked and Viroflay, only for the task to prove too big as he struggled with his jumping.
On the bare result he didn’t fare any better at Lingfield last time, but I thought he jumped much more fluently on the front end in that race, only for him to pay the price for trying to keep tabs on the runner-up Vanderpoel who has looked upwardly mobile in two subsequent victories.
Lylian has been given two months off since those runs on good ground and he might well be a different proposition now on more testing conditions that he’ll be well used to from when he raced in France.
Willie Mullins must be a big fan of his sire, Tunis, given his purchases Kiss Will, Kawaboomga and Al Arrivee are all by that stallion, and I think Lylian is likely a much better horse than the one we have seen on his first two British starts.
And it’s most interesting to see Moore point him at Sandown for his return, a track where he is 11 from 39 at 28.21% in novice handicap chases and 5 from 11 with his five-year-olds in such races.
Unexposed five-year-old Lylian has been chalked up as the outsider of the field, but he’s well worth a bet at double-figure odds in this line-up.
The Verdict: Back LYLIAN in the 13.25 Sandown
Welsh wonder in Scotland
There should be no such weather concerns in Scotland where there might even be a bit of Good to Soft in the description for day one of Musselburgh’s Cheltenham Trials meeting.
Teddy Blue was on the radar for the bet365 Scottish Champion Chase as his two-mile speed could be a weapon in that 2m4f handicap, but it looks quite a competitive renewal and he’s been well found in the market.
I can’t resist Alastair Ralph’s WELSH CHARGER at 9/2 in the bet365 Scottish County Handicap Hurdle, however.
This horse simply loves Musselburgh, winning here twice from two goes including this race last year when competing off just a 1lb lower mark than the one he races off on Saturday.
Added to that he could get the run of this in a prominent position with plenty of hold-up horses in against him and he’s been running well in deeper races than this at Cheltenham and Ascot this season.
He didn’t jump great at Ascot last time, but he still shaped as though he’s in good form and dropped 2lb ahead of this ideal test he is preferred to Afadil who was beaten in a weaker race than this one at this track on New Year’s Day.
The Verdict: Back WELSH CHARGER in the 13.43 Musselburgh
Star to shine at the DRF (CANCELLED)
Finally, just in case Leopardstown beats the weather, I want Henry de Bromhead’s MONTY’S STAR (CANCELLED) on side in the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup at 50/1.
He came on significantly for his below-par effort in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury to be beaten just eight-and-three-quarter lengths in the Savills Chase at Christmas, where he finished a little over five lengths behind Galopin Des Champs.
That was on Good ground, but he stayed on very nicely late on after being outpaced and any extra emphasis on stamina here could see him involved in the finish.
He’s from a family of stout stayers, he shapes like a strong stayer and he’s hugely unexposed on soft and heavy ground having hardly encountered such conditions either last season or this.
He impressed when winning a beginners chase in heavy ground at Punchestown as a novice, though, while he has also run fine races in such conditions in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham and at Tramore on New Year’s Day last year.
On a losing run of eight, he’s clearly a punt in this company, but at 50/1 there’s enough there to take a chance at a huge price to small stakes.
The Verdict: Back MONTY’S STAR e.w in the 15.30 Leopardstown
Preview posted at 15:40 GMT on 30/01/26
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