Our form expert has three selections for Sunday's action in Paris including in the feature Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.
The Verdict: Sunday October 4
1pt win Monteille in 1.50 Longchamp at 13/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pts e.w Leffard in 3.05 Longchamp at 33/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt win One Look in 3.50 Longchamp at 14/1 (bet365, Ladbrokes)
Rouget outsider can have the last Leff
I couldn’t be too dogmatic about most things in this year’s Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe with many imponderables dominating the build-up to Sunday’s Longchamp highlight.
Aidan O’Brien’s Minnie Hauk deserves to be the favourite but even she has never run against a colt and while she’s a three-year-old who is expected to progress again you can say that about half the field and I’m not sure she’ll relish the conditions.
The softening of the ground will play to Kalpana’s strengths but she is back in at around the right price now for a filly that has been beaten in each of her four starts this season and two of the three-strong Japanese challenge have to defy wide draws.
Byzantine Dream looks the one best equipped to do that with the red-hot Oisin Murphy on board, while compatriot Alohi Alii has a different task under Christophe Lemaire with likely pace pressure coming from those drawn around him to the inside early doors.
Add into the mix a bunch of unsatisfactory trials and you have a wide-open Arc where much will depend on who gets the dream run through on the day.
With all that in mind I think it’s worth taking an each-way punt on LEFFARD at 33/1 for Jean-Claude Rouget and Cristian Demuro, a team who have won the Arc twice in the last five years with Sottsass and Ace Impact.
Leffard is somewhat a forgotten horse in the race after being beaten into sixth in his trial, the Prix Niel, where he was sent off the 19/10 favourite.
He had no chance in that the way things transpired, though, a slow early pace resulting in a slow overall time and it was always going to be difficult coming from the rear in that scenario, nigh on impossible after he raced so keenly in the early stages.
It’s not too surprising he was fresh and keen after 56 days off going into the race, but the way he stayed on to be only beaten two-and-three-quarter lengths despite adversity will have at least been some comfort to connections.
Clearly, he’s better than that and a stronger gallop should allow him to put his best foot forward on Sunday. He will love the rain-softened ground being by Le Havre out of a Montjeu mare and from stall six he has the perfect slot to gain a nice position early.
Is he good enough? We don’t know, but his Grand Prix de Paris win here in July over Trinity College looks to have been underestimated at least a little and I liked the way he travelled that day with the Arc test in mind.
He doesn’t have the same outstanding claims as Rouget’s Ace Impact had coming into the Arc, but like him he started in the same Cagnes-sur-Mer newcomers race when making his debut at three and he is a Group 1 winner with the possibility of even better to come.
In this Arc, with no outstanding contender, he looks a big price to run well.
The Verdict: Back LEFFARD in the 3.05 Longchamp
Abbaye rational
The draw is just as important in the Prix de l’Abbaye as it is the Arc and if you are drawn away from the rail amongst the high numbers then your task is made even harder.
It can be done – Mabs Cross won from stall 13 in 2018 for Michael Dods and Highfield Princess from stall 14 for John Quinn two years ago – but it clearly makes things more difficult.
Jm Jungle breaks from the same stall as Highfield Princess did for the Quinns and while I think he’ll love everything about this race he hasn’t drifted because of the draw and I think he should’ve done really.
If his odds do go out from the current 12/1 on Sunday I can see myself getting involved but as it stands the value could be at the top of the market with MONTEILLE.
Mario Baratti’s filly has improved significantly under his watch this season and five furlongs on softer ground looks her optimum.
Indeed, her win over the course and distance in the Group 3 Prix du Petit Couvert was a clear career-best last time and she chased the pace set by Ponntos from her low draw before taking control of the contest a quarter of a mile from home.
She could get that same dream scenario on Sunday from stall one again with Ponntos drawn next to her in two and at the two pole she might just have great track position compared to the closers out wide.
The Verdict: Back MONTEILLE in the 1.50 Longchamp
Trust lady Look in l’Opera
Finally, Paddy Twomey’s ONE LOOK is worth siding with in the Prix de l’Opera de Longines over 10 furlongs at 3.50.
See The Fire and Tamfana set the standard here on their best form but One Look isn’t far behind them judging by her Group 3 Meadow Court Stakes win at the Curragh in July, which was her first go at 10 furlongs.
She’s got loads more to offer at the trip and she is forgiven her defeat in the Blandford last time at the Curragh where the winner Barnavara (reopposes here) got away from her on the front end.
One Look came from the rear and had to challenge around horses, doing well to get second, but she finished with running left and there’s more to come from her over 1m2f.
Indeed, that Blandford second came on the back of a two-month break and Twomey looks to have primed her for this, her first go at Group 1 level where the softer ground (the Gleneagles filly is unbeaten when there has been soft/heavy in the description) could see her take another significant step forward.
The Verdict: Back ONE LOOK in the 3.50 Longchamp
Preview posted at 1545 BST on 04/10/25
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