Our form expert has three selections for Saturday's ITV Racing at Newmarket and York with Charlie Appleby forecast to have a good day.
The Verdict: Saturday October 11
2pts win First Conquest in 1.15 Newmarket at 9/2 (William Hill, 4/1 General)
1pt e.w. Saba Desert in 3.00 Newmarket at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
1pt e.w. Eye Of Dubai in 3.15 York at 14/1 (NON RUNNER)
Don’t desert Desert in the Dewhurst
It looks a good renewal of the Group 1 Darley Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday but the market has cornered on Distant Storm, Gstaad and Zavateri and I’m not sure it’s as simple as them having it between themselves.
The supporting cast has potential, too, including Charlie Appleby’s second-string SABA DESERT, who looks a big price after one poor run in the Vincent O’Brien National Stakes at the Curragh last time where he was eased down behind Gstaad and Zavateri.
Clearly, that was disappointing, but it was too bad to be true and the ground didn’t look to his liking, and it could be worth remembering the promise he had previously shown now he’s back on a sounder surface at Newmarket.
He looked to be on the Native Trail trail when winning the same Sandown maiden and the Group 2 Superlative Stakes on the July course on his first two starts, his Newmarket win over Italy and Woodbine second Wild Desert particularly impressive.
A length and a quarter separated himself and Italy at the line, a commanding distance considering he reared coming out of the stalls and ran green on his way to the victory.
Appleby applies first-time cheekpieces to him here in a bid to aid his concentration and he has a 25% strike-rate in that scenario, including the same win ratio when they are first applied to his two-year-olds.
You’d have to say it’s fairly unusual to see headgear applied to Group 1 juveniles, but headgear has also helped outsiders like Intense Focus (20/1), Beethoven (33/1) and Belardo (10/1) win the Dewhurst over the years.
Jockey Billy Loughnane is 0/14 in British and Irish Group 1s, but he broke his top-level duck on Godolphin’s Rebel’s Romance in Germany and winning his first domestic G1 looks a matter of time.
He’ll certainly be getting more opportunities for Appleby, his record for the Newmarket trainer now standing at a remarkable 18 wins from 31 at 58%. No wonder he's getting chances in races like the Dewhurst.
The Verdict: Back SABA DESERT in the 3.00 Newmarket
Appleby to strike in the Darley
Bet of the day looks to be FIRST CONQUEST for Appleby again in the opening Group 3 Too Darn Hot Darley Stakes over 1m1f.
We've just mentioned his first-time cheekpieces record and he really is a trainer with a superb knack of utilising headgear correctly, including using the hood as a training aid.
First Conquest has worn a hood ever since his fourth start, but it’s significant Appleby has dispensed with it now as he is six from 19 at 31.58% when he whips the hood off his horses who raced in them last time out.
Three of those winners were at Newmarket and First Conquest ran better than the result in the Earl Of Sefton here in April when he was held up in a small field in ground he didn’t like.
He’s much better on a sounder surface and he likes this specialist distance as he showed when winning out in Meydan, while he ran a cracker after four months off under a penalty in a Haydock Group 3 last time.
Appleby looks to have trained him for the part of the season when his Group 3 penalty has disappeared, namely this race, and I expect him to lay down a bold bid under William Buick.
The Verdict: Back FIRST CONQUEST in the 1.15 Newmarket
Eye up Quinn sprinter at York (NON RUNNER)
It’s a really disappointing renewal of the Cesarewitch with only 21 running and while I fancy Dawn Rising to go well I’m happy to leave the race alone after his price went on Friday.
He comes out much the best at the weights from those horses that raced in it last year, while he looks in good nick after another fine effort in the Irish Cesarewitch and Joseph O’Brien has booked Oisin Murphy.
I expect a good run, but he’s been well found now and with seven trading at single-figure prices it’s not a market I’m keen on getting involved in.
The Coral Sprint Trophy at York is a much better punting race and again last year’s renewal is well worth revisiting.
Watch what a cracking effort John & Sean Quinn’s EYE OF DUBAI (NON RUNNER) put in from stall 22, Jason Hart switching him between horses to join the far-side group after which he got squeezed in his run before staying on for third.
No wonder he’s been targeted at it once more and by a quirk of fate he breaks from stall 22 again, but I don’t think Hart will make quite such a drastic manoeuvre this time on much better ground.
A gentle drift to track the pace to his left towards the middle of the track will likely suffice and if he can follow the likes of Sergeant Wilko, Eternal Sunshine and Jordan Electrics he could get a lovely drag into this.
Eye Of Dubai took some time to get match fit this season, as he did the last, but he’s firing on all cylinders now and the cheekpieces are bringing out more in him, his very good win at Ripon last time on good ground a season’s best.
I think he can top that effort here, as so many Quinn handicap sprinters do when they get on a roll, and off just a 4lb higher mark than 12 months ago he can put in another bold bid.
The Verdict: Back EYE OF DUBAI in the 3.15 York (NON RUNNER)
Preview posted at 1530 BST on 10/10/25
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