Our form expert has four selections for Saturday's ITV Racing at Ayr and Newbury including in the feature Ayr Gold Cup.
The Verdict: Saturday September 20
1pt win Kerdos in 1.30 Newbury at 10/1 (bet365, 8/1 General)
1pt e.w Gweedore in 2.25 Ayr at 16/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, bet365, 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt win Mustazeed in 2.40 Newbury at 12/1 (General)
1pt e.w Jubilee Walk in 3.35 Ayr at 18/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Ayr to celebrate a Golden Jubilee
Two three-year-olds who put in career-best performances at York head the market for the Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup on Saturday and one of them has 13lb in hand of the handicapper and the other is 2lb wrong.
The latter fact has not put people off backing Northern Ticker and that’s of no surprise really, as Michael Dods is a dab hand at getting more and more out of this type of horse and he could easily follow the Commanche Falls-Dakota Gold route to pattern company.
I’ve nothing against him other than his price, as he just looks a bit skinny at 6/1 given he’ll have to improve again in a very deep 25-runner field.
Ain't Nobody is the horse with 13lb in hand on the back of his running-on second in the Nunthorpe and if he's in that form here then Kevin Ryan's horse will be tough to kick out of the frame.
The problem is the six furlongs as he’s 0/7 at the trip and he really looked to improve for being dropped back to the flying five on the Knavesmire, so at single-figure prices he’s also worth dismissing from calculations.
There are a few other horses officially ‘well-in’ including JUBILEE WALK and James Ferguson's runner makes plenty of appeal at odds of 16/1 and bigger getting the six places.
He’s 3lb ahead of the handicapper after bouncing back to form with a good second at Ascot last time, his previous run at York when beaten four lengths by Northern Ticker easily forgiven after he stumbled at the start and then found trouble in the run.
His form at Chester and York in the spring has worked out really well and following wind surgery and being gelded he has shaped all season long like he has a big handicap sprint in him.
We’ve never really got to see what this horse can do in the autumn as his previous seasons have never made it past August, but while he’s inherited plenty of speed from his dam he's by a stamina influence in Study Of Man and a tough six furlongs could be perfect for him.
With the big field and bit of cut in the ground making this a stamina test at the trip I wouldn’t be surprised to see him produce another career-best and that would put him bang in the mix under Ray Dawson, who went so close to big-race glory last weekend in the St Leger.
The Verdict: Back JUBILEE WALK in the 3.35 Ayr
Scott in the hunt for Silver success
Jubilee Walk could get a form boost in the Ladbrokes Ayr Silver Cup as Binhareer, two lengths behind him at Ascot, looks likely to go off a hot favourite for William Haggas.
He wasn’t done too many favours by the loose horse at Ascot and has a good Ayr win under his belt, so his market position is understandable for all that once again I’d rather take him on each-way given the nature of these races.
The one I can’t resist is Katie Scott’s GWEEDORE who is very well handicapped on his efforts from a few years ago and he has loads of Ayr form in his locker including five wins and an excellent third in the Ayr Gold Cup off an 8lb higher mark two years ago.
Since then he has had setbacks and has been seen sporadically, including when he was sent off 150/1 and 125/1 on the all-weather in the winter, but if they were getting fit exercises he looked to have his mojo back at Musselburgh in the spring.
He ran two good races in second there within a week in April, form that has worked out well, both runs coming over seven furlongs including in first-time cheekpieces on the latter run.
Not seen since then, he’s won off six months breaks twice before and it wouldn’t be a surprise if his absence has been down to his mark being protected for a tilt at this race.
Either way, he’s got all the tools to be competitive in this race from his current rating and 16/1 getting six places looks very fair indeed.
The Verdict: Back GWEEDORE in the 2.25 Ayr
Kerdos a Trophy hunter for Cox
There’s good racing down at Newbury too featuring the Mill Reef Stakes and while that looks a contest to watch and learn from I want to back Clive Cox’s KERDOS in the opening Group 3 Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes.
This horse has undoubtedly disappointed ever since he won the Group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock 16 months ago, his official rating sliding from 111 to 102 in that timeframe.
However, I thought he ran well when beaten two lengths in the King Charles III at Royal Ascot and I’m not convinced tracks like Goodwood play to his strengths and you wouldn’t pick fast ground for him either.
Caught wide from a wide draw in the Beverley Bullet last time, I thought he ran better than the official result and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bounce back to his best on a flat track like Newbury with the softer ground in his favour.
Habooba and Shagraan could give him a lovely tow into this and Hector Crouch, who has remarkably never ridden him given his ties with Cox, can race in their slipstream and pull him out for a late challenge.
The Verdict: Back KERDOS in the 1.30 Newbury
Must bet for Eustace at Newbury
Finally, there’s a bit of rain forecast on race day at Newbury and if the ground gets softer then I’d expect further support for Harry Eustace’s MUSTAZEED in the Dubai Duty Free Handicap over 10 furlongs.
The son of Territories won this race last year a day after finishing second to Due To Henry over the same course and distance and he’s clearly well adept at backing up quickly.
Running just last week at the Leger meeting looks a positive then and he was dropped a further 2lb after blowing the start where he gave the field over 10 lengths.
Obviously he’ll have to be sharper from the gates here, but he’s back on a really competitive mark of 87 – just 1lb higher than last year where he bolted up – and he’s got bags of good Newbury form to his name.
The Verdict: Back MUSTAZEED in the 2.40 Newbury
Preview posted at 1545 BST on 19/09/25
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