It's the busiest Saturday of the season with action from Ascot, Newmarket and York and our form expert has six selections for the afternoon.
The Verdict: Saturday July 12
1pt e.w. He’s A Monster in 2.50 Newmarket at 22/1 (BetVictor, Sky Bet, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt win Naqeeb in 3.10 York at 9/1 (Ladbrokes, 8/1 General)
2pts win Secret Theory in 3.25 Newmarket at 17/2 (BetVictor, William Hill, Paddy Power)
1pt win Believing in 4.35 Newmarket at 10/1 (William Hill, Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
0.5pts e.w. Jasour in 4.35 Newmarket at 22/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)
0.5pt e.w. Germanic in 4.50 Ascot at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
Take on Speech in the feature
It’s Super Saturday or Saturated Saturday depending on your viewpoint but either way it’s a punter’s paradise and the best race of the day, the Group 1 Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai July Cup Stakes, serves up a tantalising puzzle at Newmarket.
The key element is whether you want to be with or against favourite Notable Speech, the undisputed best horse in the race but unproven over the six-furlong distance against a group of sprinting specialists.
We’ve seen a few milers drop back to win this contest over the years and he is a miler with gears, but his form has dipped a little this season and after sustained support he looks very short now at around 9/4, so I’m happy to take him on.
The one I want to be with is George Boughey’s BELIEVING at 10/1, as a speedy six furlongs on fast ground looks her optimum scenario and she should be spot on for this after just the one run this domestic season.
That was in the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot where she was sent off the 3/1 favourite only for things not to fall in her favour. Drawn right on the wing in stall one, she was forced to race prominently in the unfavoured far-side group and she could never get competitive the way things panned out.
It’s a performance that’s easily forgiven and much of the rest of her form is compelling considering her price for this test; particularly her seconds at Goodwood, York and the Curragh over five furlongs last season and her Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint victory over six at Meydan in the spring.
That batch of form makes her the main threat to the favourite for my money and this in-foal mare (to Frankel) is drawn nicely around the pace with Spy Chief and Inisherin likely to give her a tow into proceedings.
She could give Boughey his second domestic Group 1 and jockey Billy Loughnane his first top-level success in a race that looks set to be her final career start.
I also can't resist a small each-way bet on JASOUR at 22/1 with Saffie Osborne taking over in the saddle for the first time.
There’s no doubt this horse is a bit of a thinker and he’s been too keen for his own good throughout his career, but trainer Clive Cox is a genius with sprinters and I think he’s gradually working him out.
Last time he just about settled well enough to come home well for sixth in the Jubilee behind Lazzat in a hood and tongue-tie combination, headgear that is retained here, and if he does put it all together he has the natural talent to win a race like this.
Jim Crowley partnered him to victory in the July Stakes on this track the first time he ever rode him and a new jockey might just work the oracle for the mercurial grey.
It’s therefore encouraging Osborne has a good record for Cox (nine wins from 43 at 21%) and if she somehow manages to switch this fellow off he might just come home with a strong run at a big price.
The Verdict: Back BELIEVING and JASOUR IN THE 4.35 Newmarket
The Secret’s out for Appleby
The best bet on Super Saturday for my money is SECRET THEORY in the bet365 Mile Handicap at 17/2.
Whether he wins the July Cup or not it’s been another fantastic July Festival for Charlie Appleby and he’s got a very strong hand in this race, a contest he has won four times in the last seven years, with Bedouin Prince joining Secret Theory in the line-up.
Bedouin Prince looks the likely favourite and is respected, but I think he's going to want 10 furlongs soon enough and a quick mile on fast ground could catch him out.
His presence arguably deflects the attention away from his stablemate in the Godolphin red cap, Secret Theory, which is good, as this son of Dubawi has bundles of talent.
He is very nicely bred from a family Appleby knows well and all of them go on fast ground, while Secret Theory started the season with a very tidy win in a Nottingham novice (see free video replay, below) where he gave 7lb and a beating to subsequent winners Archivist (favourite for the John Smith’s Cup at York) and Mister Winston.
That performance marks him out as a pattern horse in the making and there was no disgrace in him being beaten by two subsequent Royal Ascot winners in a hot Goodwood novice after that, especially as he seemingly didn’t handle the track.
He’s been gelded since then and Appleby also whips the hood off here, a training method he uses to great effect (he’s six from 17 at 35.29% when opting for no headgear after using a hood last time in the UK).
A strong traveller with bags of potential, James Doyle might have just struck lucky getting on this one.
The Verdict: Back SECRET THEORY in the 3.25 Newmarket
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Monster gamble in the Bunbury
William Haggas’ More Thunder has been backed like defeat is out of the question in the bet365 Bunbury Cup and while he looks a horse going places I can’t help but feel his price has got a little bit silly.
As I look on Oddschecker he’s 11/8 in most places which is way beyond the basement price I'd take and I've a few concerns considering the current market rate; his wing draw in 13 for one and more importantly the worry that he gets outpaced again, just as he has done in all of his starts this season.
Yes, he won two of those over shorter trips, but they were off lower marks and though the extra furlong looks in his favour he could still get outpaced over seven considering the field size and the fast ground.
Given the percentage he takes out of the market I want an each-way bet against him in a 13-runner field getting four places and HE’S A MONSTER appeals at 22s.
Things didn’t work out for him in France and Qatar last year but the ex-Archie Watson horse is back in Newmarket with Hamad Al Jehani now and the Wathnan trainer has quickly got him back to peak form judging by his stable debut at Newcastle.
Sent off 50/1 that day, he was beaten a head in a frantic finish over six furlongs and he’s arguably even better over seven. Added to that, his record in handicaps is excellent. From six goes he’s had four wins and that head third, while he runs from a rating 3lb below his last winning mark on Saturday.
His prominent style of racing lends itself well to this track and No Nay Never progeny go well here too, so there are reasons to believe he’s underestimated in this spot at big odds.
The Verdict: Back HE’S A MONSTER in the 2.50 Newmarket
So Camacho at York and Ascot
Finally, Julie Camacho is in red-hot form and I like a couple of hers at York and Ascot.
NAQEEB has become a regular for this column this season but there’s no need to desert him now after his fine third in the Duke Of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot and a bold bid is expected in the John Smith’s Cup.
He's a couple of pounds well-in here after that run where he travelled strongly again and you can see why connections have opted to drop him in trip to 10 furlongs for this race.
He hasn’t run over a trip this short since his first two runs but his new yard have sweetened him up to such a degree that it now looks the obvious move.
Earlier in the season he was a massive eyecatcher when pulling hard over further in a hot race at this track and going half a stride quicker should suit him well.
Also, his stablemate GERMANIC looks worthy of each-way support down at Ascot in the LK Bennett Butterfly Mark Heritage Handicap over five furlongs.
Like Naqeeb he was formerly with Haggas but he has shaped well in his early starts for his new yard, particularly at Newcastle where he finished second to Ferrous in a hot race.
He has taken a keen hold in all of his races over six this season and dropping him to five for the first time looks a shrewd move. The likely very strong gallop can help him settle and I like his central draw giving Cieren Fallon, three from 13 for the yard (+£17.00 to £1), options on the Ascot straight track, for all that straight down the middle could be the order of the day.
The Verdict: Back NAQEEB in the 3.10 York and GERMANIC in the 4.50 Ascot
Preview posted at 1530 BST on 11/07/25
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