Our form expert has four selections for the opening day of the 2025 Cheltenham Festival.
The Verdict: Tuesday March 11
1pt win L’Eau du Sud in 2.00 Cheltenham at 9/2 (General)
1pt win Crebilly in 2.40 Cheltenham at 9/1 (General)
1pt win Murcia in 4.40 Cheltenham at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Resplendent Grey in 5.20 Cheltenham at 9/1 (General, 10/1 bet365)
Taking on Majborough in the Arkle
The four best days of the jumps season are finally here and all eyes are on Constitution Hill v Brighterdaysahead in what could be a spectacular race for the Unibet Champion Hurdle.
It’s a much-needed boost for the day one feature and if things go to plan we could be treated to the best renewal for a long time.
Is Constitution Hill as good as he was? Will he need to be? Is Brighterdaysahead the real deal at this trip at this level after what she did at Leopardstown over Christmas?
Those questions are going to be answered and while I have a slight preference for the mare at the prices I'm happy to sit back and watch what should be a fantastic race.
Willie Mullins might have to take a backseat in the Champion Hurdle, even with reigning champion State Man back for more in the race, but he could otherwise take day one by storm.
Gauging which ones to take on will be a theme of the week and I’m in no mood to oppose either Kopek Des Bordes in the Michael O’Sullivan Supreme Novices’ Hurdle or Lossiemouth in the Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle, but I do think we can get Majborough beaten in the My Pension Expert Arkle Challenge Trophy at 2.00.
Last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner is two from two over fences this season including an emphatic Irish Arkle win at Leopardstown last time, but his jumping took a while to warm up at the Dublin Racing Festival and he won’t be able to miss a beat here.
He’s clearly a smashing prospect but he’s had just five races in his life and the margins can be fine in two-mile steeplechases at the Festival.
Experience could be a factor and it’s worth noting that five-year-olds are 0 from 11 in the Arkle since they lost their weight-for-age allowance in 2008, a number that includes fancied horses like Fakir D’oudairies and Riviere D’Etel.
None of that may matter to Majborough who looks the best five-year-old to have run in the Arkle in that timeframe, but I do think he’s very short at 4/7. I'd have him and 9/2 chance L’EAU DU SUD closer together in the betting.
Dan Skelton’s grey is much more experienced with 16 career runs under his belt and he has taken his form to a new level for seeing a fence, his jumping looking a real asset now he’s facing the bigger obstacles.
He wasn’t a bad hurdler by any means and his best run over timber came at last year’s Festival when he was second in the County Hurdle, but he has significantly improved his form since going chasing as he’s assembled a four from four record.
I think the best he’s looked all season was when he scooted clear here on the Old Course at Cheltenham on good ground last November and I don’t think he was at his best when landing the Henry VIII at Sandown after that.
He still won well but on softer ground his jumping wasn’t as slick late on and for that reason alone I’d be wary of measuring his chance against Majborough through Touch Me Not.
I liked his prep run at Warwick last time as he jumped beautifully, had the race won at the top of the home straight and that should’ve teed him up nicely for this test.
Back on better ground, a career-best performance could be incoming and that would give him a chance even against another Mullins monster.
The Verdict: Back L’EAU DU SUD in the 2.00 Cheltenham
Murcia to break Mullins’ Fred Winter duck
Mullins has never won the Fred Winter, remarkably, although Gaelic Warrior came very close for him three years ago, but he could change all that with Kenny Alexander’s MURCIA.
This filly really caught the eye at Naas last time out, running on strongly from the rear to be beaten a neck in second by Bacchanalian, Declan Queally’s horse boosting that form with an emphatic 11-length Grade 3 win subsequently.
That Naas race has thrown up three Fred Winter winners in the last six years thanks to Band Of Outlaws, Aramax and Brazil, and the way Murcia finished off her race suggests she is really getting to grips with Mullins’ regime.
She looks a strong stayer at two miles and will probably want further in time, but I don’t mind that in the Fred Winter and while her hurdling could do with improving this is a race where you can get away with such things if you’ve got the engine.
Fillies have a good record in this contest and I think she’s going to love the strong gallop, so 12/1 looks very fair about Rachael Blackmore having another Festival win in the famous colours of Honeysuckle.
The Verdict: Back MURCIA in the 4.40 Cheltenham
Crebilly the Ultima warrior
In the Ultima Handicap Chase there are a few of the market leaders I want to take on.
The Changing Man is an understandable favourite now he has broken his duck over fences, but I wonder if his jumping will hold up in a big field, while Broadway Boy’s price has gone considering he’s become tough to win with.
Katate Dori is respected for the excellent Sam Thomas but he was ridden brilliantly by Charlie Deutsch off a fierce pace last time and this is very different up 12lb.
Lucinda Russell’s pair of lightly-raced novices, Whistle Stop Tour and Myretown, were both on the shortlist, but the one who I think should be favourite is CREBILLY and he’s worth getting on side at 9/1.
Jonjo & AJ O’Neill have worked wonders getting this horse to the tapes 2lb lower than when he was second in last year’s Plate at this meeting and all throughout his career he’s hinted he’s got a race of this nature in him.
He’s got form with Crambo, Libberty Hunter and Ginny’s Destiny, while his novice chase season was a Festival project that so nearly came off.
This campaign looks to have been all about the Ultima and he ran well when returning to fences over two miles at Windsor before his tee-up race over 2m4f at Kempton was a success in so much that it got him down a further couple of pounds in the weights.
A former pointer from a staying family, he has tried this 3m1f trip just once before at Aintree, but he was on the back foot straight away that day after hitting the first and he’s well worth another chance to show he can excel at such a stamina test.
The Verdict: Back CREBILLY in the 2.40 Cheltenham
Grey area for Murphy and Bowen
Finally, RESPLENDENT GREY could be the one to give Olly Murphy and Sean Bowen their first Festival winner in the Princess Royal National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices' Handicap Chase.
Now a 0-145 handicap, he’s one of the horses towards the top of the weights but he looks a class act and his form has worked out well all season.
His debut over fences came when winning at Uttoxeter and that was franked by Hoe Joly Smoke at the weekend, while he split Hyland and Springwell Bay at Cheltenham in November before chasing home Handstands in Grade 2 company at Sandown.
He didn't jump great at Cheltenham last time in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase on Trials Day, a race that is often a rich source for Festival winners, but that was over 2m4f and he stayed on really well up the hill.
I don’t think he’ll mind the better ground and I’d expect him to jump better at this trip, while Murphy and Bowen couldn’t be in better form. He looks their best chance of the week.
The Verdict: Back RESPLENDENT GREY in the 5.20 Cheltenham
Preview posted at 1545 GMT on 10/03/25
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