Our form expert had 10/1 and 16/1 winners at Cheltenham last weekend and he has three selections for Saturday's Howden Christmas Saturday at Ascot.
The Verdict: Saturday December 20
1pt win General Medrano in 13:50 Ascot at 6/1 (bet365, 11/2 General)
1pt e.w Doddiethegreat in 14:25 Ascot at 28/1 (William Hill 1/4 1,2,3)
1pt e.w Threeunderthrufive in 15:00 Ascot at 16/1 (William Hill 1/4 1,2,3,4)
Back hot Doddie in the Long Walk
The horses that dominate the market for Saturday's Grade 1 Howden Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot are largely priced up on potential and it’s probably a much more open race than the odds would have you believe.
JP McManus owns the top two in the betting in Honesty Policy and Impose Toi and while both are respected they simply don’t have the form to take such a big percentage out of the book and I’d rather take them on with DODDIETHEGREAT each-way.
I think there’s an element of him being an inflated price due to his position as Nicky Henderson’s second string behind Impose Toi, while he has to reverse Newbury form with that stablemate, too, but he’s an improving stayer in his own right who might just take his form to a new level here.
He can be a bit quirky and carry his head awkwardly, but I do think he’s a horse that is happier in a bigger field off a stronger gallop where there’s plenty going on, and he certainly thrived last spring when initially stepped up to three miles in huge-field handicaps at Cheltenham and Punchestown.
I think he’s run well in two small-field assignments this season, as he was forced to make his own running at Wetherby and then he was outpaced when the race turned into a sprint in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury.
He wasn’t beaten far in either, but I think he’ll be better in this bigger field off a likely stronger gallop, with Beauport and Potters Charm two that could set the pace for the Twiston-Davies team.
James Bowen rides and he has an excellent 20% strike-rate both at Ascot and for Henderson, while I quite like him in this scenario with the pressure off as he can just ride his own race and see how far things take him.
The Verdict: Back DODDIETHEGREAT in the 14.25 Ascot
Threeunder to land the Silver
The big handicaps at Ascot look tricky and I struggled to find an angle in the closing Ascot Rotary Club Festival Handicap Hurdle.
Wilful’s Chepstow form couldn’t have worked out much better and he has a 19lb pull at the weights with Alexei, but such a swing was always going to see him well found in the betting and he was a shortening 9/2 chance on Friday afternoon.
The drop in trip and the big field should suit his style of racing but with the ship having sailed I’d rather back old favourite THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE in the preceding Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase at 18/1 for Paul Nicholls.
Regal Encore showed in this race that experience can count for plenty and I like that Threeunderthrufive has racked up a serious course and distance record including in this race last year when he was third.
He’s 8lb better off with Victtorino here on last year’s running when he came into the race fresh, but this time around he’s had a run at Wincanton which should’ve brought him on significantly fitness-wise.
This is his second run back from wind surgery and Nicholls’ stats second run back from a wind op are encouraging (a win strike-rate of 21% compared to 18% first run after wind surgery) which reinforces the thinking that this may have been his main target for a while.
The handicapper has given him a chance dropping him to 150, certainly considering his last two runs in the Swinley Handicap Chase over the course and distance in February where he won off 152 and was beaten a nose off 153 in the last two renewals.
A solid jumper who clearly loves the test that Ascot provides, he looks a good spot of each-way value against the younger brigade.
The Verdict: Back THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE in the 15.00 Ascot
General to motor home for Bowen
Finally, GENERAL MEDRANO can get in the winning groove again now he steps back up in trip to 2m3f in the Howden Handicap Chase.
The eight-year-old is starting to look well handicapped off 136 given he was rated 7lb higher just three starts ago and he’s well worth another go over an intermediate distance having been campaigned at trips around two miles on his last eight starts.
He’s shown form at Newbury and Doncaster that would be good enough to win this off his new rating amongst those runs and he’s performed well at Ascot, too, keeping on for fourth over 2m1f in November like he would appreciate this extra distance.
Emma Lavelle clearly thinks the time is right to go back out in trip and it’s noticeable she’s booked Sean Bowen, for the first time in six years, for the ride.
He’s a good man to get him settled and I think he might just enjoy using his two-mile gears in this scenario.
The Verdict: Back GENERAL MEDRANO in the 13.50 Ascot
Preview posted at 16:00 GMT on 19/12/25
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