Becher Chase tips: Antepost preview and best bet for Aintree feature
Antepost Value Bet tips: Saturday, December 4
1pt e.w. Hogan's Height in Becher Chase at 25/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4)
This year’s Unibet Becher Handicap Chase has the makings of a top-quality edition of the race.
Chris’s Dream would become only the second 160-plus rated chaser to compete (after Don Poli) in the past decade if running for Henry De Bromhead, and there have been positive noises from the camp regarding the nine-year-old's participation.
He was running a bold race under a big weight (able to compete off 2lb lower now) before unseating rider in the Grand National here in April and his two most recent seasonal reappearance runs have produced a wide-margin win the Troytown, and a neck second in the Grade One Champion Chase at Down Royal last October.
One thing he looks unlikely to be getting at Aintree, however, is optimum racing conditions as one look at the long-range forecast makes it pretty clear we’re in for another couple of weeks of relatively dry weather.
That could obviously see some of the naturally classy chasers come to the fore and I couldn’t be too hasty when it comes to ruling out the Lucinda Russell-trained Mighty Thunder. Granted, he’s one of the early favourites at 12/1 with a few firms, but he improved enormously for last year’s comeback and looks likely to leave his Charlie Hall Chase form well behind in time.
A mark of 150 – 6lb higher than when winning the Scottish National at Ayr in the spring – might just be enough to thwart him here, but there’s a lot to like about him otherwise, especially if the top horse keeps the weights down for everything else.
If you like Mighty Thunder then the general 16/1 about Dingo Dollar must be quite tempting.
An absolute natural on decent ground, he was moved from Alan King to Sandy Thomson at the beginning of last season and seriously rediscovered his mojo thereafter, dotting up in at Newcastle before a gallant, three-quarter-length second at Ayr.
He’s 2lb better off with Mighty Thunder on the revised terms and he’s also had a respectable recent run when fourth at Kelso, a race used by Le Breuil before he was third in last year's Becher, and by One For Arthur a month before he was fifth in the big race in both 2016 and 2019.
Others who appear to have been primed for December 4 following recent reappearance efforts include Cap Du Nord and El Presente (fourth and fifth in Wincanton’s Badger Beer respectively), Checkitout (second at Sandown) and the returning Le Breuil, who looked badly in need of it at Fontwell.
However, splitting the Grand Sefton (replay below) off from this meeting in order to help spearhead Aintree’s opening November fixture was always going to provide a good angle for connections looking for a perfect prep and the first, third, fourth and sixth could all be involved again.
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The winner Mac Tottie has gone up 7lb on the back of it, with the others all eased in the ratings since. Manwell, down to 118, could struggle to make the cut for the Becher while David Pipe’s new recruit Via Dolorosa (also down 2lb) doesn’t look an obvious one to improve for the extra half-mile on offer in this race.
However, HOGAN’S HEIGHT looks an ideal candidate, having been dropped 3lb for his staying-on sixth, and the Becher could be right in his sweet spot trip-wise these days, having won the 2019 Sefton by 16 lengths, while he didn't see out the extended four and a quarter miles when 12th behind Minella Times in this year’s Grand National.
The mud was flying when he won the Grand Sefton, making it a fair test on the day, but he’s got plenty of form on good ground too, including a couple of novice hurdle victories (one of which came over 3m1f), while he’s back on a mark just 1lb higher than that career highlight a couple of years ago.
Six of the last 10 winners were running off marks in the 130s so while plenty of the long-range focus may be around those more towards the top of the handicap, Hogan’s Height scores pretty highly on just about every metric given his past experience of the course.
He's a 10-year-old now and having established he's probably never going to have the stamina for the National itself, it would be reasonable for trainer Jamie Snowden to be treating the Becher as 'his Gold Cup', and the current 25/1 doesn’t do him justice at all.
Published at 1430 GMT on 21/11/21
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