Ben Linfoot's Weights & Measures | Kim Bailey on First Flow's Champion Chase chance and more

Firing Flow ready for Cheltenham test

• First Flow ⬆ 10lb to 166
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FIRST FLOW was a brilliant winner of the Grade One Matchbook Betting Exchange Clarence House Chase at Ascot on Saturday, under a buccaneering David Bass ride, and the question now is - can he go on and win the Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham?

By putting him up 10lb to a new rating of 166 the handicapper clearly thinks he’s right in the mix, as you would expect after he just saw off the reigning Champion Chase winner by seven lengths on his first attempt at the top level over fences.

Trainer Kim Bailey has watched the replay of the race umpteen times since, but hasn’t quite managed to convince himself just yet that his horse can go on and claim Festival glory.

He said on Tuesday: “It was one of the best races I’ve watched for a long time and one of the few races I’ve watched more than once.

“I’ve seen several replays. At the time I stood there slightly amazed at what the jockey was doing and now I’ve watched it again you can see what he was doing and why he was doing it.

“He’s 3lb behind Altior which rather sums it up doesn’t it? It does take handicaps off the agenda, which I knew was going to happen anyway.

“Lots of people are trying to pick holes in the race on Saturday but the handicapper thinks it was a truly-run race and has taken it on face value, which is the right way to do it.

“We’ve a long way to go [to Cheltenham] yet and if it was fast ground he wouldn’t run, but he’s got every right to be going there. Is he good enough? Probably not.”

All of First Flow’s form is on soft or heavy ground and given he needs such conditions, or something approaching those conditions, to even run, he doesn’t really appeal as an ante-post prospect at a top-price of 14/1.

But a wet Cheltenham suddenly brings him right into the picture, although he does lack experience of the track, as well.

The nine-year-old was entered in the Arkle last year, but his trainer didn’t think he was ready at the time for the heat of battle that Cheltenham provides. “We pot hunted to get him some experience instead,” Bailey said.

After six wins on the spin, improving 26lb to 166 in that timeframe and notching Grade One glory, it’s safe to say he looks ready now.

Pagaille form boosts on the radar

• Royale Pagaille ⬆ 10lb to 166
• Cap Du Nord ⬆ 3lb to 142
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ROYALE PAGAILLE is up to a mark of 166 following his Peter Marsh smash-up job at Haydock on Saturday and the racing world continues to debate his Gold Cup credentials.

I wrote in my Saturday analysis that I think we’re looking at a 170s horse now and I stand by that, so it would be a no-brainer for me – he has to go for Gold.

His form is obviously under much scrutiny now and two horses that were left trailing in his wake earlier in the season could prove well-handicapped on Saturday judging by their conqueror’s subsequent exploits; CAP DU NORD in the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster and ESPOIR DE ROMAY (also trained by Kim Bailey) in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase at Cheltenham.

Cap Du Nord is the general 5/2 favourite for the Sky Bet Chase after this latest form boost, the collateral nudge up to 142 meaning he’s 3lb well-in on Town Moor this weekend.

Beaten just over three lengths by Royale Pagaille at Kempton at Christmas, his trainer Christian Williams is excited about Saturday’s challenge with a view to the Randox Health Grand National later in the season.

“The horse looks to have a good profile,” Williams said on Tuesday.

“Not just the winner [Royale Pagaille] who beat us at Kempton but the third horse [Double Shuffle] has come out and won and The Kings Writ who finished seventh ran well in the Somerset National, too.

“I think we’re better off to be going up a few pounds thanks to the form being solid than the other way around, so we’ve no complaints.

“We do think he stays very well. We haven’t wanted to expose him at a trip until we really have to, so hopefully his first time at a trip will be in the Grand National.

“We haven’t used that trip yet and have been keeping it up our sleeve.”

If you fancy Cap Du Nord on Saturday, it’s worth bearing in mind his 66/1 quotes for Aintree. The National sounds like the plan and if he wins at Doncaster, he’ll be assured a run.

As for Espoir De Romay, Bailey was keen to play down the form boost after his horse was a seven-length second to Royal Pagaille in a novices’ chase at Haydock on December 2.

“His form is working out well, but Royale Pagaille beat us very very easily so at the end of it, who knows,” Bailey said.

“He’s working on Wednesday and we’ll make a decision then as to if he runs at Cheltenham on Saturday.

“I don’t think he necessarily wants bottomless ground, he didn’t really enjoy it too much at Haydock. I’d prefer better ground for him, anyway.”

WATCH: We chat to Christian Williams ahead of Cap Du Nord's run in the 2021 Sky Bet Chase

Enqarde could go on Trial at Haydock

• Enqarde ⬆ 8lb to 132
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There were impressive performances everywhere you looked on Saturday and one that might’ve gone slightly under the radar was ENQARDE for Dr Richard Newland in the Matchbook Best Odds Handicap Chase at Ascot.

His was a really taking victory despite jumping left on occasions and an 8lb rise should see him get into some better staying handicaps as the season progresses. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Newland could be targeting left-handed tracks like Haydock and Ayr.

Up to a rating of 132, Newland thinks the Betway Handicap Chase at Kempton in February might be a bit sharp for him, so the Grand National Trial at Haydock could be his next port of call.

“I’ve given him an entry at Haydock,” Newland said. “Not that he could be a Grand National horse, as he’s too low in the weights, but that might be a nice race for him if he gets in it.

“Stamina is his forte I suspect. There’s a nice race at Ascot on the same day he’s in at Haydock on February 20, so hopefully he can run in one of those.

“Haydock might actually suit him better.

“I’m just thinking he could sneak in at the bottom of the weights in a good handicap as that’s probably where we’ll go next.

“Unfortunately he had an injury last year so we missed a lot of last season, the owners have had to be incredibly patient but it’s paying off now.

“We’re excited about him as a staying chaser. He stays well. That Haydock race is 3m4f, whether that’s the race I don’t know.

“Maybe he’ll be a Scottish National type of horse at the end of the season. He could be that type of horse, we’re excited about his progress.”

That’s an interesting potential target from the Grand National-winning trainer, given Enqarde has yet to tackle (and finish) a race further than three miles. His progress will be followed with interest.

This Week's BHA Major Amendments (January 26)

Ballyandy ⬇ 3lb to 154
Bennys King ⬆ 3lb to 157
Brewin’upastorm ⬆ 7lb to 155
Brinkley ⬆ 10lb to 140
Buveur D’Air ⬇ 5lb to 158
Cap Du Nord ⬆ 3lb to 142
Champagnesuperover ⬆ 12lb to 127
Craigneiche ⬆ 12lb to 139
Dashel Drasher ⬆ 6lb to 158
Defi Du Seuil ⬇ 3lb to 165
Enqarde ⬆ 8lb to 132
Fagan ⬆ 10lb to 142
Faivoir ⬆ 12lb to 143
Fanion D’Estruval ⬆ 3lb to 157
First Flow ⬆ 10lb to 166
Gladiateur Allen ⬆ 9lb to 131
Navajo Pass ⬆ 7lb to 157
Politologue ⬇ 1lb to 168
Potters Hedger ⬆ 5lb to 135
Protek Des Flos ⬆ 6lb to 134
Royale Pagaille ⬆ 10lb to 166
Serious Ego ⬆ 9lb to 119
The Kings Writ ⬆ 5lb to 140

PRE-ORDER YOUR WEATHERBYS 2021 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL GUIDE NOW!

Previous Weights & Measures

• Can Imperial rule in the Pertemps? (January 19)
• Grand options for weekend heroes (January 12)
• Metier's mark tempts Betfair run (January 5)
• Allart an Arkle super sub (December 22)
• Quality Street up a stone (December 15)
• Brave could break Nicholls' duck (December 1)
• Long Walk glory for Main attraction? (November 24)
• Coole Cody up 6lb for Paddy Power win (November 17)

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