The King George VI And Queen Elizabeth QIPCO Stakes is Ascot summer highlight at the end of the month and our man previews the Group 1 contest.
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Antepost Value Bet tips: 2023 Flat season
1pt win Luxembourg in King George VI And Queen Elizabeth QIPCO Stakes at 12/1 (General)
Fresh on the back of a four-runner Coral-Eclipse at Sandown on Saturday, it’s worth underlining the fact this is nothing new and there have only been 14 runners in total across the past three editions of the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth QIPCO Stakes. So, with 27 long-range Ascot entries to pick through at this stage, it’s obvious there’s potential to unearth some value ahead of the next forfeit stage on Tuesday.
It almost pains me to say it but the head of the market must be the place to start, dual Derby winner Auguste Rodin occupying top spot at a standout 11/4 with Sky Bet (5/2 generally).
He’s not exactly blown me away in victory at Epsom or the Curragh, but the big question here is ‘will he even run?’ and I’m yet to be completely convinced, especially with Aidan O’Brien reiterating how much he thinks he could be a special horse over 10 furlongs – a distance he has yet to tackle in his life.
He’s easy enough to overlook as there’s a chance the Ballydoyle trainer will now look to give his Deep Impact colt a summer break before aiming at York, Leopardstown and Longchamp later in the campaign.
Adelaide River may continue to keep his more exalted stablemate company wherever he goes, while the other three-year-old colt entered up is Derby runner-up King Of Steel, who really does deserve another shot at Auguste Rodin at some point in light of his subsequent success in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot.
From the outside looking in, next Friday’s Grand Prix de Paris may be the most likely target if it were purely up to trainer Roger Varian, but second-guessing the Amo Racing running plans is futile at best, so we’ll pass over the giant grey who can be backed at 9/2 (Hills) which would look a perfectly reasonable price should he turn up on July 29.
Last year’s winner Pyledriver is another with obvious claims having won last month’s Hardwicke Stakes on his only subsequent start. An 18/1 chance 12 months ago, he’s no longer being underestimated which is fair enough as he’s a seriously good horse on his day, but he’s still not one I’d be running scared of if considering a bet elsewhere in the race.
It’s hard to image connections of Emily Upjohn or Westover – both really disappointing in this race last season – would be desperate for a return on the back of Saturday’s big efforts in the Coral-Eclipse and Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud respectively, while Hukum probably wouldn’t run if the ground came up quick and the same applies to the mare Free Wind, who was a well-held favourite behind Pyledriver on lively ground in the Hardwicke.
Desert Crown is seemingly still on the back-burner, Deauville Legend has a fair bit to find on form, while stable companions Soul Sister and Al Asifah look likely to be rerouted – the former an obvious Irish Oaks (July 22, needs supplementing) or Nassau (August 3) type and the latter expected to be given time to recover from her Ascot flop.
That essentially leaves the horses from the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, but Adayar is entered at Newmarket on Thursday and William Haggas is also now looking towards a drop to Group 2 level for My Prospero (Sky Bet Stakes at York).
Ascot runner-up LUXEMBOURG must be a significant King George player if given his chance. He was firmly put in his place by a red-hot Mostahdaf on the day but ran another high-class race in the Prince Of Wales's, sticking on valiantly despite being bustled up for the lead early on by 100/1 rag Classic Causeway (full replay below).
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Luxembourg has won Group 1 races aged two, three and four and looked as good as ever when making all to land the Tattersalls Gold Cup from Bay Bridge on his second start of this season at the Curragh. Perhaps that tough race took a little shine off him heading to the Royal meeting, but I don’t think he was below par by any stretch and just found one too good in one of the best middle-distances races run all season.
One-time Derby favourite (he missed Epsom last summer after being injured in the Guineas), Camelot colt Luxembourg is completely unexposed at the mile and a half trip, his only attempt so far coming when seventh to Alpinista in the Arc - the horse reportedly pulling a muscle in the early stages at Longchamp.
He’s bred to get every inch of the 12 furlongs and again shaped that way last time out, so there’s still untapped potential there and it’s surprising he’s being so overlooked in the betting at 12/1 as I’d expect to see him right among the favourites if Auguste Rodin doesn’t go.
That’s the key element of the bet, of course, and the magnitude of that ‘if’ will admittedly put plenty of punters off, but I’m willing to take a chance at the prices as it just looks such an obvious target for O’Brien’s principal older horse.
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Published at 1510 BST on 09/07/23
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