Arc de Triomphe tips: Best value bets on Arc day at ParisLongchamp including Prix de l'Abbaye
It's Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe day on Sunday and Matt Brocklebank has identified one horse on the card he thinks is being underestimated in the betting.
Value Bet tips: Sunday, October 3
1pt win A Case Of You in 4.25 ParisLongchamp at 11/1 (Betfair, Betfred)
Already advised:
1pt e.w. Chrono Genesis in Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at 16/1 (Sky Bet, bet365 1/5 1,2,3)
Derby hero only just hitting top gear
Sunday’s Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe has all the ingredients to be a sensational race and with more three-year-olds than older horses lining up there’s always a chance one of them could take a giant step forward to cause something of a surprise.
The problem with that potential angle, certainly when it comes to this column’s end-game, is that nothing in the entire field looks as open to improvement as the likely market leader, Charlie Appleby’s Derby and King George winner Adayar.
He’s been a slow-burner from the very outset, only coming to hand and ready to make his debut in the October of his juvenile season, and he was learning on the job when beaten twice this spring prior bursting onto the scene at Epsom.
The King George, when readily defeating one of the world’s best older, middle-distance turf horses in Mishriff, was a real coming-of-age performance for the son of Frankel and while plenty has been made of his slightly aggressive, free-going tendencies in the early stages at Ascot, that’s something we’ve seen in the Arc from out-and-out superstars such an Enable and Treve in the past, and isn’t much of a concern for me at all.
There are a few others whose form ties in quite closely with Mishriff as well, including Juddmonte International runner-up Alenquer and the Japanese mare Chrono Genesis, who was a slightly unlucky second to the Gosden horse in the Sheema Classic earlier in the year.
I made the case for her at the start of the month when 16/1 but after being drawn stall 14, and with some more heavy rain on the way, I can’t bring myself to double down around the 12/1 mark.
Prix Foy one-two Deep Bond and Broome, both likely to be forwardly placed in the race from stalls five and seven respectively, could sneak a piece of the action at wild prices. Broome has no secrets at all at this level and was comfortably beaten off after missing the kick in the King George, but a better start here should see him pick up an advantageous track position and he’s just the sort to hang tough while others find trouble in the home straight.
He’s 66/1 but I’ll sit tight with the long-range position on Chrono Genesis enough of an interest, especially with so many other good races to weigh up.
I’ve been a big fan of Space Blues for a while and expect him to provide Appleby and Buick with a first victory in the Prix de la Foret despite the ground probably being softer than ideal, though I wouldn’t be wholly confident fellow short-priced Brit Audarya can repeat her 2020 success in the Prix de l’Opera as she faces some fascinating rivals including unbeaten German challenger Palmas.
However, the Prix de l’Abbaye looks ripe for an upset with local star Suesa handed a tricky-looking draw in 12. It’s not like this race can’t be won from out wide – plenty have done so including Mabs Cross from stall 13 just three years ago – but I’m certainly more comfortable taking Suesa on now given she has become a bit of a hostage to fortune in some of the big Group Ones in Britain this summer.
Glass Slippers and Winter Power are considered the main dangers according to the market but I’ve no idea how A CASE OF YOU is trading at more than twice their price at 11/1 after finishing in front of the pair of them in the Flying Five Stakes at the Curragh last month.
Trainer Ado McGuinness has always held him in the highest regard and looks to have found the Hot Streak colt’s niche after dropping him to the minimum trip for the first time in his career over Irish Champions Weekend.
He ran an absolute stormer from a less-than-ideal draw (stall two), only going down by half a length to the reopposing Romantic Proposal, with Glass Slippers, Dragon Symbol and Rohaan third, fourth and fifth in what must be one of the hottest editions of the race.
Romantic Proposal had what would traditionally be considered a far better Curragh draw (13) and she also had her favoured ground (good), but the tables are turned at ParisLongchamp with A Case Of You in stall five and Eddie Lynam’s filly now posted out in 13.
A Case Of You, unexposed not only at the trip but also in the tongue-tie he’s worn for just his last two starts, loves testing ground and the only blip in such conditions came when losing a shoe in the Commonwealth Cup this summer.
Despite finishing nearly last there he clearly had excuses and looks to be hitting top gear again, as he did last October when winning the Group Three Anglesey Stakes, and it can’t have been that difficult a decision to supplement him into the Abbaye at a cost in excess of 25,000 euros in midweek. Here’s hoping it pays off.
Published at 1600 on 02/10/21
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