Arc de Triomphe antepost views: Who will be next to shorten in the betting?

Late-May into June is a significant time of year as the Classic pecking order really begins to take shape, while races for older, middle-distance horses such as the Brigadier Gerard, Prix Ganay and Tattersalls Gold Cup also have a major baring on helping determine who will end the year as top dog.

It may only have been March 25, but it suddenly seems a long time ago that Japanese star Equinox shot to the head of the betting for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe following a sensational Sheema Classic victory at Meydan, a lot of water passing under the bridge since that day.

Equinox has effectively been ruled out of the Longchamp highlight, a trip to the Breeders’ Cup looking that horse’s ultimate destination if he even needs to travel overseas at all, and in a very short space of time we’ve consequently had a bunch of significant alterations to the Arc betting, not least a new market leader in Auguste Rodin who is 6/1 generally following his half-length Derby triumph over King Of Steel.

The Oaks winner Soul Sister was another climber up the charts and is 14/1 to give John and Thady Gosden a first Arc success as a training duo, with stablemate Emily Upjohn – more likely to be Frankie Dettori’s final Arc ride of the pair at this stage – halving in price to 8/1 following a seriously impressive success in the Coronation Cup.

Her margin of victory over Epsom runner-up Westover wasn’t quite as decisive as Equinox’s defeat of the same horse out in Dubai, but it looks a strong and reliable piece of form nevertheless and few could have argued had Emily Upjohn found herself at the summit of the Arc market following the Derby Festival.

The lure of Aidan O’Brien and his intense veneration for Deep Impact colt Auguste Rodin has no doubt played a hand there, and across the Channel perhaps the unrivalled appeal of an unbeaten record has something to do with French starlet Ace Impact being quite so short around 7/1.

Having said that, Jean-Claude Rouget’s son of Cracksman did look out of the top drawer when gunning down – and drawing three and a half lengths clear of – the prolific front-runner Big Rock in the Prix du Jockey Club.

As for some of the more mature movers and shakers in this particular merry-go-round, firstly Hukum ran down last year’s returning Derby winner Desert Crown in the Brigadier Gerard at Sandown, before Luxembourg made every yard of the running to repel Champion Stakes hero Bay Bridge in the Curragh’s Tattersalls Gold Cup.

Each has plenty to recommend them going forward. Hukum was racing over what was presumed to be an inadequate trip on his first start for the best part of a year, while Luxembourg was bouncing back from a low-key comeback run. The latter also did seem to have a legitimate excuse (pulled muscle in his back) when only seventh to Alpinista in last year's Arc, so I don't think that's much of a stick with which to beat him.

Luxembourg is heading for the Prince of Wales’s Stakes and a mouthwatering clash with Adayar in nine days’ time, while Hukum’s big summer target is surely going to be next month’s King George back up at 12 furlongs – possibly via the Group 2 Hardwicke. The fragile Desert Crown's career is seemingly back on hold which is unfortunate.

One horse who was eased a fraction in the Longchamp betting following Epsom was Oaks runner-up Savethelastdance, who had looked a rare talent when winning the Cheshire Oaks by 22 lengths.

Considerably quicker ground conditions ultimately left her looking short of a gear in comparison to the speedy Soul Sister on the Downs, but she lost little in defeat and could be far better suited to the major autumn targets at Doncaster (St Leger), Longchamp (Arc) and Ascot (Fillies & Mares Stakes), when there’s bound to be more rain around.

So there we have it, the budding three-year-old middle-distance aces have made themselves known, and the more established stars of previous seasons have put their hands up to form the resistance. A dozen horses, all priced between 6/1 and 25/1. Pay your money and take your chance.

The problem with that is that they’ve all now shown their hand and, like any other antepost bet, you’ll only ever get an edge in terms of value if you’re able to get in and out before something becomes blindingly obvious to every other punter out there.

Rose in full bloom next Sunday?

So it is a trio of fascinating three-year-olds who make up the ‘shortener shortlist’ at this juncture, the first of which being the unbeaten filly Jannah Rose (40s, Sky Bet).

She got up close home in a mile maiden at Chantilly on her only start at two and has taken her form to another level this spring, winning the G3 Prix Vanteaux and following up in the G1 Prix Saint-Alary, both races at Longchamp on good to soft and very soft ground respectively.

A 650,000-euro daughter of Frankel, Carlos Laffon-Parias’ filly looks a little bit special and, although entered in the Coronation Stakes, her next date with destiny comes back where it all began for her – at Chantilly in the Prix de Diane next Sunday.

Quite what the future holds after that is hard to pin down as she looks blessed with an outstanding turn of foot, but one would be foolish to assume anything sired by Frankel couldn’t stay 12 furlongs, and if she wins the Classic she’ll have connections dreaming of following in the hoof-prints of Treve – the last filly to win the Diane on route to Arc glory.

WATCH: Jannah Rose wins the Saint-Alary in good style

O'Brien's 100/1 shot worthy of consideration

Heaven knows the next port of call for fellow three-year-old filly Never Ending Story (100/1, William Hill), but she could also be in line for the 'French Oaks’, and I’m of the opinion we could see a different beast entirely once stepped up to middle-distances through the summer and deeper into the campaign.

Aidan O’Brien’s Dubawi filly has a bunch of top-class engagements including the Ribblesdale, the Pretty Polly and the Irish Oaks, but the fact she’s been left in the Irish Champion Stakes and the Arc speaks volumes as to the regard in which she’s held at Ballydoyle.

She probably put in her best juvenile performance when third in the Marcel Boussac at Longchamp over Arc weekend last October, which obviously bodes well, and it was remarkable to see her not only dropped to seven furlongs for her three-year-old comeback – but to actually go and win the Group 3 at Leopardstown.

Her lack of natural speed was exposed when only fifth in the French Guineas subsequently, but she had a pretty rough trip that day, too, and I’d be willing to put a line through it. O’Brien insists this Dubawi filly could be hard to contain when fully maturing and getting on a roll and I can’t wait to see how things pan out for her over 10 furlongs and beyond as the year goes on.

Wind building strong profile

I can't let the opportunity pass without one more mention of failed antepost Derby project Imperial Emperor, another by the great Dubawi but unfortunately yet to be seen on the track this season. His trainer Charlie Appleby was on record prior to Epsom suggesting he’d give the strapping colt – out of a half-sister to the same yard’s former big gun Ghaiyyath – all the time in the world to come to hand, and perhaps his lack of entries (aside from Longchamp) is a sign that that simply has yet to happen.

Like Ghaiyyath, he’s seemingly had a training hold-up early in his Classic campaign and may only really burst onto the scene at four, but the impression he left in a back-end mile maiden at Newmarket last year cannot be forgotten in a hurry.

His current Arc odds (50/1) have the capacity to look really daft should the cards eventually fall into place, but he's far too much of a risk and instead I'll turn to five-year-old mare Free Wind, yet another in this conversation for the Gosdens and 28/1 with Sky Bet at the time of writing.

By Galileo out of Duke Of Marmalade mare Alive Alive Oh, she gradually went through the ranks as a three-year-old in 2021 and wound up winning the Park Hill (1m6f) in great style, before being restricted to just the one start last year - a drama-filled victory in Haydock's Lancashire Oaks when almost put through the rails two furlongs out, before motoring home late to win going away.

Said to have suffered both mentally and physically following that unsettling experience, Free Wind returned to action at York last month when showing a different side to her game - gears (replay below).

She was ultimately pushed to half a length by Rogue Millennium (the pair clear) but appeared to have plenty in hand at the line in a relative test of speed over stamina and now heads for the Hardwicke.

If she can get the better of Hukum and take top spot at Ascot she'll have won seven of her last eight starts and be firmly entitled to join stablemates Emily Upjohn and Soul Sister on the journey from Clarehaven to the Bois de Boulogne in early-October.

Prices correct at 1405 BST on 11/06/23

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