William Buick returns in triumph on Nabati
William Buick returns in triumph on Nabati

Saturday analysis: Charlie Appleby in insane form heading into Cambridgeshire meeting at Newmarket


Our Ben Linfoot reflects on the Group 2 Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes as Nabati continued Charlie Appleby’s incredible form.


Can you remember Charlie Appleby’s form in June?

Not only did he not have a runner in the Betfred Oaks or the Betfred Derby, but he didn’t have a runner at the whole Epsom meeting.

At Royal Ascot he went 0/12, with his best chance, 9/4 shot Notable Speech, finishing sixth in the Queen Anne Stakes behind 50/1 winner Ten Bob Tony.

In the whole of June he had just the six winners, his lowest total in that month in his training career. Most of his Junes are much more fruitful – in 2022 he had 19 winners, including four winners at Royal Ascot, for example.

But the green shoots of recovery began to sprout in July. Sometimes there’s no place like home and at Newmarket’s July Festival Appleby had four winners, quietening chat of his disappointing season.

As so often with an underperforming big Flat yard, much of the resurgence has been thanks to the two-year-olds. No matter what the older horses have been doing, if the juveniles are performing the future is bright.

And the future is positively brimming with potential for Appleby given the exploits of his two-year-old team in the last month or so.

In September, Appleby is 10 from 17 with his juveniles.

On September 10 Musical Times hosed up in the May Hill and is 11/10 for the Fillies’ Mile.

On September 12 Desert Castle did similar in the Champagne Stakes and is 7/4 for the Dewhurst.

Later on the same day Al Hudaiba won the Grade 1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine.

On September 18 he had a juvenile double at Newbury with Sorrengail and Bin Jahwar.

Today, Saturday September 19, Flower Show impressed at Newmarket an hour before Nabati landed the Group 2 Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury.

Nabati (left) edges a Mill Reef thriller
Nabati (left) edges a Mill Reef thriller

And Nabati’s short head win over Jolivette with another neck back to Arapaho Gold in third needs to be marked up.

William Buick revealed afterwards that the plan was to be prominent, but the son of Night Of Thunder was awkward breaking from the stalls and was immediately on the back foot in the rear.

A change of tactics from Jolivette saw the Andrew Balding-trained Juddmonte-owned filly lead, and at a meeting where you have wanted to be on the front end she got in a good, sensible, rhythm.

The sectionals showed she went a good even gallop but by the fourth furlong they dipped under 11 seconds and, in the heat of the race, that’s where Nabati made his move.

He did exceptionally well to go from towards the rear to leading the way, a huge effort to make up that ground, and he had enough in the tank to repel a fighting Jolivette and a rallying Arapaho Gold in a tight finish.

Considering those two rivals both had a month off since York, while Nabati was running eight days on from the Flying Scotsman at Doncaster, this is another feather in the cap for Appleby who was justified in his decision to quickly drop him back in trip from seven to six.

On this evidence Nabati has gears and it’s the sprinting influence of his pedigree that is shining through, so much so that it remains to be seen if Appleby tries to stretch him out to the 2000 Guineas trip come the spring.

I’d say that’s unlikely on this showing. The three-year-old sprinting programme and the Commonwealth Cup could well be an early-season target for him as Appleby bids to bounce back at Royal Ascot 2027.

The month of June 2026 is long forgotten at Moulton Paddocks.

Instead all the focus is on a golden autumn, one that could get even better considering the momentum Appleby has built up heading into the Cambridgeshire meeting.

Focusing in on his high-profile two-year-olds, he’s got Al Jabbar in the Tattersalls Stakes, First Law in the Royal Lodge and Inner City Blues in the Middle Park next weekend.

They could all win. The Appleby two-year-old train shows no sign of stopping.

And while Nabati’s Mill Reef was good, you get the feeling the best is still to come from a team who can do no wrong at present, particularly in the juvenile sphere.


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