UFC preliminaries betting preview and tips ahead of Fight Night 4 in Las Vegas

Recommended bets

2.5pts Luis Pena and Kay Hansen to win at 6/5

Read: UFC Vegas 4: Main Card betting tips

With Fight Island on the horizon, the UFC makes one last trip to the Apex for a night that will guarantee finishes. Headlined by former interim champion Dustin Poirier and rising Kiwi Dan ‘The Hangman’ Hooker, the entire card will be explosive for as long as each fight lasts.

As usual, the preliminaries will whet fight fans’ appetites before the main card. Last week’s opening bouts certainly delivered, with some dominant performances and four stoppage victories. This week features submission expert Jordan Griffin, surging prospect Luis Pena, and the youngest female fighter on the roster, Kay Hansen.

Here are my tips for Saturday night’s action.

Wrestlers to secure the double

Luis Pena is a physically gifted athlete. Standing at 6’3, he has long limbs that give him a natural advantage with his striking and grappling. He fights in the southpaw stance and has an awkward style that many seem to struggle against.

His opponent, Khama Worthy, pulled off the second biggest upset in UFC history in his debut, knocking out Devonte Smith as an 8/1 underdog. Worthy has a kill-or-be-killed attitude inside the cage, suffering a knockout or submission in each of his defeats. He thrives off chaos, hoping to lure his opponents into brawls and find the fight-ending blow.

Unfortunately for Worthy, Pena is a disciplined fighter who isn’t afraid to utilise his grappling if he senses danger. He faced an equally lethal knockout artist in his last bout and was able to demonstrate his superior fight IQ, taking the fight to the mat and dominating with approximately 13 minutes of back control.

Pena’s long limbs will be a huge benefit to him in this. Once he gets fights to the floor he can lock his hands together and wrap up body triangles with ease, ensuring he keeps control of his opponent.

I expect Pena to be dominant in this fight, if he avoids the knockout punch. Anything can happen in MMA, but Violent Bob Ross has demonstrated a good chin so far in his career and should outwork Worthy on the way to his fifth UFC victory.

The second leg of this double relies on Kay Hansen. At just 20 years old, she has already demonstrated impressive Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu abilities. Despite her lack of experience, she is a fighter who knows her strengths, and will shoot for takedowns early and often.

Throughout her relatively new career, Hansen’s wrestling has evolved drastically. Across just nine outings she has utilised a variety of takedown approaches. She has also developed an excellent ability to read her opponent’s leg kicks, catching them and forcing the fight to the ground.

Hansen’s opponent, Jinh Yu Frey, is by far the superior striker of the two. While she lacks the power to do serious damage, she has the better technique and accurate strikes. If the fight stays on the feet, she will certainly be on the winning end of a decision.

Frey relinquished the Invicta FC Atomweight (105lbs) championship for this fight, which takes place at Strawweight (115lbs). Weight classes are vital in MMA, and Hansen has previously fought at Flyweight (125lbs). Despite both women being the same height, I expect Hansen to be the more physically imposing fighter.

The biggest concern for Frey is certainly her tendency to be passive on the ground. Whenever she has been forced to the mat previously she has not demonstrated enough urgency or desire to get back to the feet. Against Hansen, this will prove costly.

In short, I think Frey is going to have to finish her opponent to get the victory. She has only finished one opponent via strikes and should not pose a submission threat to the 10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu prospect. I expect Hansen to spend large portions of the fight on top, eventually securing the submission or winning on points.

No judges needed in Sato v Brahimaj

• Fight cancelled, previously-advised bet void

This one should deliver action and excitement from start to finish. Takashi Sato and Ramiz Brahimaj are fighters that always look to finish, with 21 of their combined 28 bouts done in under 2.5 rounds.

Watching Brahimaj’s earlier fights, there is a clear pattern to his style. From the moment the fight starts, he is relentless in pursuing the takedown, looking for a quick submission. The Fortis MMA fighter has been mostly successful with this approach so far, winning eight of his 10 fights this way (five coming within a minute).

For all his successes in round one, the UFC debutant has a serious pacing issue. He exerts so much energy in round one that he can barely throw a punch after just seven minutes. Coupled with the fact that this bout was only scheduled a week ago, it is hard to see Brahimaj going the full 15 minutes.

Sato has had mixed results in his UFC career, but the Japanese striker hits hard. With crisp straight punches, he fires measured counter shots at his opponents and has 12 finishes to his name (with 11 in under 2.5 rounds). If he can survive the early onslaught, he should find success with his hands in the later rounds and bring home another stoppage victory.

It will not be an easy outing for Sato, who has shown a weakness in his BJJ defence. He offers his back to his opponents when attempting to get to his feet, which gives every opportunity for a rear naked choke finish. This was exploited by Belal Muhammad in Sato’s last fight, and lightning could strike twice if he isn’t careful.

This fight is ultimately a hard one to call, but whoever wins should get a stoppage victory. Each fighter is essentially facing an opponent that is skilled in the other’s weakness, so the likelihood of a finish in under 2.5 rounds is greater than the odds suggest.

Posted at 1640 BST on 25/06/20

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