UFC Vegas 4: Main Card betting tips including Dustin Poirier v Dan Hooker

Recommended bets

2pts Poirier v Hooker to go over 2.5 rounds at evens

1pt Gall to beat Perry at 11/4

0.5pt Gall to win via submission at 5/1

Read: UFC Prelims best bets

The UFC’s last show before a one week break as the promotion gets prepared to go out to Fight Island next month.

The card is headlined by former interim lightweight champion Dustin Poirier, who will be looking to keep in and around the lightweight title picture as he takes on Dan Hooker, who knows a win over Poirier puts him into the top three of the division. This has fight of the year written all over it.

In the co-main event you have the always entertaining Mike Perry, who will be taking on welterweight prospect Mickey Gall, in what could potentially be a really exciting fight for fans to watch, too.

We'll start with Poirier v Hooker, which promises to entertain and enthrall.

Main event to run and run

While Poirier v Hooker should be a brilliant watch, I soon abandoned all hope of being able to pick a winner because both guys are so dynamic and adaptable in their way of fighting.

However, one thing did stand out: that both men are more than capable of going a long way into a fight, which isn't reflected in bookmaker quotes of around even-money that we see a third round.

Poirier has gone the distance in eight of his 32 fights, and has reached the third round in 12 of them, while Hooker has taken eight of his 28 to the scorecards, with 11 reaching the third round.

Already that hints at things taking time to unfold, and you also have to take into account the fact that both men have styles that are much more suited to a longer bout.

Poirier is a patient fighter when he respects his opponent's punching power, which he will have to do given half of Hooker’s 20 wins have come via KO, and he will wait for his opponent to open up before going in for the kill.

Hooker meanwhile is part of a new generation of MMA fighter that won’t put 100% of their power into each shot they throw, instead he’ll put in maybe 20 or 30% into his punches as he pokes and prods to find the ideal opening - before throwing a devastating power shot.

The durability of Hooker can’t be underestimated, either. In his last fight he edged a decision win in a bloody war with Paul Felder, and it took Edson Barboza several spinning back kicks to the body followed by a gut punch to put the Kiwi away.

I expect a stand-up war, both men knowing what is at stake. Sit back and enjoy it, optimistic that we should be paid out for a fight which goes past halfway - and maybe even the distance.

The Gall to force a submission

Mickey Gall v Mike Perry represents the perfect opportunity for the former to take the next step in his MMA carer and increase his name value.

Gall isn’t that well known outside of diehard MMA fan circles (although some people will undoubtedly recognise him as the man who stopped CM Punk’s career dead in it’s tracks) and a win over Perry, who is notorious for his antics outside of the cage, will definitely help boost his status in the UFC and put him in a good place to fight for a ranking spot next time out.

There’s arguably been no better time to fight Perry, either. The Florida native seems distracted outside of the cage, with an online war of words with Darren Till which Perry ultimately lost, and a fall out with his cornering team, which has now seen him put his girlfriend, Latory Gonzalez, as his corner person, rather than his usual coaching network.

With all that going on it’s hard to believe he'll have been focusing on training. And if the fight does go past the first round, will Gonzalez, who has no previous cornering experience, be able to give him the guidance needed to win the fight?

Expect Gall to try and take the fight to the floor as soon as possible (he holds a 38% takedown success rate) before taking a position and throwing punches until the opportunity arises to attempt a submission.

Perry does hold a 70% takedown defence rate which could make this difficult, but previous fights have shown that when he ends up on the bottom, he really struggles to get back to his feet, or take top control for himself.

Posted at 1140 BST on 25/06/20

Responsible gambling

We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

Sky Bet's responsible gambling tools are detailed here and if you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org. Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.