MMA betting tips: UFC Vegas 42 preview and best bets
Will Dean picks out his best bets for UFC Vegas 42, with Miguel Baeza backed for success as he faces Khaos Williams.
MMA betting tips: UFC Vegas 42
3pts Miguel Baeza to win at 8/11 (General)
2pts Marcos Rogerio de Lima to win at 13/10 (Bet365)
2pts Cynthia Calvillo to win by Decision at 6/4 (Betway)
De Lima to stop the clock
MARCOS ROGERIO DE LIMA has alternated between wins and losses in his last 11 bouts. The Brazilian’s record captures the essence of his capabilities, as he possesses some really impressive and dangerous qualities, alongside one glaring weakness.
De Lima has some of the best striking in the Heavyweight division and is a force to be reckoned with if he secures top position, but everything falls apart if he winds up on the bottom.
Six of de Lima’s eight losses have come via submission, so he always needs to remain vigilant of any grappling threat he may face. Saturday night’s opponent, Ben Rothwell, has an opportunistic guillotine that he must be wary of, but otherwise the American is a dedicated striker that can bring out the best in de Lima.
Since returning from a two-year suspension in 2019 for banned performance-enhancers, the 40-year-old Rothwell has looked like a shell of his former self in his subsequent six appearances. Big Ben seems to lack a game plan, instead plodding forward with no defensive awareness and hoping he lands the knockout blow if he gets close enough.
Against a much more well-rounded striker like de Lima, Rothwell will likely find himself getting tagged at range by the Brazilian’s kicks and straight punches. Big Ben is the much slower and less athletic fighter of the two, so de Lima will likely be landing the higher volume across the bout.
As long as he uses good footwork to keep Rothwell at a distance, he should win rounds relatively comfortably and may even find a finish along the way.
Like many opponents before him, Rothwell’s win condition against the Brazilian will need to involve grappling at some point. Having attempted just five takedowns across 77 minutes of fight time since his return, this feels like an unlikely expectation.
History tells us that de Lima is due a loss, but I am willing to ignore the pattern and instead side with ROGERIO DE LIMA TO WIN at 13/10 in the co-main event.
Consistent Calvillo
CYNTHIA CALVILLO returns to the cage for the second time in just under two months, having recently suffered a first-round knockout loss to Jessica Andrade in September.
The loss marked the first occasion that the Flyweight fighter has ever been on the losing side in back-to-back fights, but these at least came at the hands of the division’s elite.
Andrea Lee was recently on a three-fight skid of her own, but against lesser competition than Calvillo’s recent setbacks. With each of KGB’s defeats coming by decision, the recurring theme was her opponent’s grappling success, especially in the third round.
Lee managed to change her fortunes with a submission victory in May, but she once again faces a likely uphill battle across 15 minutes this Saturday against Calvillo.
Lee is without a doubt the more well-rounded fighter of the two, but her takedown defence simply should not be good enough to get the best of her opponent. In her seven UFC appearances so far, KGB has been taken down by 43% of her opponent’s attempts, with five of the seven foes getting the fight to the floor on at least two occasions.
Calvillo is a dedicated grappler who has the cardio to land takedowns at any moment. With 10 UFC bouts to her name, she has successfully completed almost half of her total takedown attempts, usually securing top position and grinding out the rest of the round.
In a fight that is most likely to go to a decision, it is hard to look past Calvillo here. With Lee’s unreliability at keeping the fight standing, the favourite has a clear opportunity to fight to her strengths and grapple her way to a decision victory. At 6/4, backing CALVILLO TO WIN BY DECISION is the way to go.
Baeza Beatdown
MIGUEL BAEZA has emerged as one of the hottest prospects from Dana White’s Contender Series, winning his contract back in 2019 and emerging victorious from his first three UFC appearances.
Matchmakers and fans were so impressed with Caramel Thunder’s well-roundedness that he earned a matchup against now #13 ranked Santiago Ponzinibbio back in June.
Baeza gave an admirable showing in a ‘fight of the year’ candidate against Ponzinibbio, but faces a step down in competition on Saturday night against Khaos Williams. A hard-hitting fighter who took the preliminaries by storm last year (with two knockout victories inside 30 seconds), The Ox Fighter is certainly dangerous.
However, his following two appearances against Michel Periera and Matt Semelsberger went the full 15 minutes, and the resulting performance was underwhelming. Williams did emerge victorious in the latter fight but showed that he is much less effective if he cannot secure the knockout.
Baeza has proven himself to be very durable so far in the UFC, going 15 minutes with a prolific finisher like Ponzinibbio, as well as surviving a turbulent opening round against Matt Brown, the fighter with the most finishes in Welterweight history.
Along with this, six of Williams’ seven career finishes have come in round one, implying his power does not translate to the later rounds. If Baeza survives the opening stanza, he will be in the driver’s seat to turn the tide and march home to victory.
Aside from raw power, I think Baeza is just the better striker and more diverse martial artist. Caramel Thunder has thunderous leg kicks and an impressive grappling ability in his back pocket, which could help him dictate where the bout takes place.
Whether he finds a finish late or survives to the judges, I think BAEZA will look stronger than an 8/11 favourite when his arm is raised.
Odds correct at 1820 GMT (10/11/21)
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