Ross Williams delivers his verdicts and best bets for the Week 5 action in the NFL, including an 11/2 shot on Sunday night.
NFL betting tips: Week 5
2pts New England Patriots (-3) to beat the Detroit Lions at 20/23 (bet365)
2pts Seattle Seahawks (+5.5) to beat the New Orleans Saints at 10/11 (General)
1pt AJ Brown & Devonta Smith 80+ receiving yards each at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
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Detroit Lions @ New England Patriots
- Kick-off time: 1800 BST
- TV: NFL Redzone - Sky Sports Mix
- Best bet: New England Patriots (-3) to beat the Detroit Lions
There’s a quarterback injury crisis in New England, but you wouldn’t have known it, based on how well the Patriots hung with the Green Bay Packers last weekend.
In the end, Aaron Rodgers’ side prevailed but it was New England that pulled in the plaudits for the way they battled as big underdogs.
Whether it’s Bailey Zappe or a recovered Mac Jones in the quarterback saddle this Sunday, I fancy the Pats to grab their second win of the season.
The Lions simply can’t stop anything on defence and I suspect this gives Bill Belichick and his side the impetus to run the ball right down Detroit’s neck this weekend, with very little in the way of resistance. The Lions leaked 235 rushing yards against Seattle, and the Patriots provide a sterner test with the likes of Damien Harris in their backfield.
Sure, the Lions have proved effective on the offensive side of the ball, but the argument in this game stops as soon as you take a look at the points conceded column. Detroit are shipping more than 35 points per game at the moment. Unsustainable doesn’t quite cover it.
In any era, a team coming into Foxborough with that kind of defensive record is in for a rough night, and I fully expect the Patriots to cover the spread and provide the Lions with a reality check that this kind of defensive incompetence just isn’t acceptable at the top table.
Seattle Seahawks @ New Orleans Saints
- Kick-off time: 1800 BST
- TV: NFL Redzone - Sky Sports Mix
- Best bet: Seattle Seahawks (+5.5) to beat the New Orleans Saints
I tipped the Seahawks to pull off the upset last week and they delivered. This week, I’m going back to the well, thanks to a 5.5-point spread that seems generous on recent form.
New Orleans were valiant in London, falling to the Vikings by just three points, but they may well be equally beaten up this weekend on the injury front and there’s always the risk of ‘London fatigue’ as the Saints become only the sixth team in NFL history to follow up a trip across the pond with a non-bye week.
Seattle, on the other hand, were pretty poor defensively in their win over the Lions last week, shipping 45 points on the road, but we knew that going in.
The Seahawks are clearly not going to the play-offs any time soon off the back of their defensive play, but what did excite me last week was the ignition of their explosive offence.
I don’t know what has happened to Geno Smith this offseason, but he looks a new man, ranking third in the NFL in terms of passer rating. Plus, both Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf now rank in the NFL’s top 20 for receiving yardage.
Add in a run game that was fantastic on Sunday and all of a sudden, Seattle look to have an offence that can create real fear and raise some real questions.
With a hefty handicap in our back pocket and a number of factors looming over the Saints, I fancy the Seahawks to cover the spread in this one and continue their under-the-radar form.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals
- Kick-off time: 2125 BST
- TV: NFL Redzone - Sky Sports Mix
- Best bet: A.J. Brown & Devonta Smith 80+ receiving yards each at 11/2 (Sky Bet)
The Cardinals have some real problems on defence and I’m anticipating some fireworks on Sunday evening as a result.
Although Philadelphia’s most obvious strength lies in their ground game, the Eagles have proven that they’re far from one-dimensional on offence. When the match-up suits, Jalen Hurts has been given the license to sling it, and he’s done a fine job in doing so.
Going into week five, Hurts has more passing yards than Tom Brady, Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes and their match-up against Arizona this week paves the way for more of the same.
Although the ground attack will be plan A, there’s no way Philadelphia resist the temptation to go after the Cardinals’ secondary, which PFF ranks as the NFL’s worst coverage unit by a distance.
Enter Philadelphia’s playmakers, who will have an opportunity to explode this weekend.
AJ Brown has looked every inch an All-Pro wide receiver so far this season, as one of only four players in the league to be averaging over 100 receiving yards per game. He hasn’t missed a beat since his move from Tennessee and he’ll be excited to get his teeth into this fragile Arizona defence.
Then there’s Devonta Smith. The former Alabama standout is averaging 66.5 yards per game so far, but that stat-line reads much more impressively when you consider that Smith only picked up 17 yards in two of his four games this season combined.
Against the Lions and Jaguars – games where Philadelphia massively prioritised the run – Smith wasn’t a factor, but in match-ups where the Eagles have decided to flex their aerial arsenal he’s excelled, going for 80 yards and a massive 169 against the Vikings and Commanders respectively.
Hurts could and should throw the ball relentlessly on this Cardinals secondary, and I love the value of these two Eagles playmakers each cracking the 80-yard mark as a result.
Posted at 2020 BST on 07/10/22
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