NFL Week 4 betting tips: Best bets, predictions, picks and previews
After returning profit in Week 3, Ross Williams picks out his best bets for the Week 4 action in the NFL.
NFL betting tips: Week 4
2pts Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) to beat the Philadelphia Eagles at 10/11 (General)
2pts Seattle Seahawks to beat the Detroit Lions at 7/4 (William Hill)
1pt Saquon Barkley (Giants) & Khalil Herbert (Bears) both to score a touchdown at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
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Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles
- Kick-off time: 18:00 BST, Sunday
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bet: Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) to beat the Philadelphia Eagles at 10/11
At the start of the season, I did not envisage the scenario of backing the Jacksonville Jaguars in a game against the form team in the NFL, but it’s a funny old sport
I’m not willing to go as far as predicting that the Jaguars win this game, but I can’t help but feel the seven-point spread is bordering on disrespectful. Coming off a huge win against the Chargers, the Jags will have some real confidence as they head to Philadelphia and they actually match up pretty well against the NFC’s front-runners.
Although Jalen Hurts flexed his muscles in the passing game last week, the bread and butter of the Eagles’ offense is their ability to move the ball on the ground. The likes of Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell and Hurts himself are extremely dangerous with the ball in hand, but let’s not rule out Jacksonville’s chances just yet.
The Jags' defense has allowed just 55 rushing yards per game so far this season – an NFL-leading statistic – and their front seven has been making Sunday evenings pretty miserable for each quarterback they’ve faced. The Jaguars also lead the league with six interceptions on the season – a result of a strong pass-rush and a secondary that’s willing to take opportunities.
All told, it’s tough to say whether Jacksonville can stop the Eagles entirely on Sunday, but on current form they have as good a chance as anyone.
If they can keep Philly’s scoring down, as I believe they can, it’s all on Trevor Lawrence to get the job done offensively. His rookie season wasn’t quite as explosive as some hoped, but he’s shown major strides in the first three weeks of this campaign and looks every inch the NFL quarterback.
He has his offense averaging 28 points at the moment, just 0.7 shy of their Sunday opponents so – with a seven-point touchdown in hand on the spread, I really do like the chances of the Jaguars covering.
Oh, and did I mention it’s a Doug Pederson revenge game?
Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions
- Kick-off time: 18:00 BST, Sunday
- TV: NFL Redzone - Sky Sports Mix
- Best bet: Seattle Seahawks to beat the Detroit Lions at 7/4
Dan Campbell’s Lions have started pretty well so far this season, and have quickly cemented their status as the ‘second team’ of many NFL fans. They’re likable because they punch above their weight, and in doing so they generally produce high-scoring affairs.
D’Andre Swift and the brilliantly-named Amon-Ra St. Brown have been standouts thus far, with stat-lines that have them both hovering around the top ten in their respective positions. However, Detroit head into Sunday with both of these young stars on the sideline, and that may create a real opportunity for an underestimated Seattle team to pick up a vital road win.
A smart play could be taking the Seahawks on the handicap, which currently has Seattle as three-point underdogs in the contest, but I like the value of picking Pete Carroll’s team outright.
Before I elaborate, I will get one thing straight. This one isn’t going to be pretty.
A banged-up Lions team will be forced to do things the hard way and rely plenty on Jared Goff’s ability to get the ball to – frankly – anyone they have available in their receiving ranks. This, I believe, is where Detroit may come unstuck.
St. Brown, who’s been averaging over 80 yards, is a massive miss and the real problem is that there’s very little on the roster than can replace his consistent level of production.
Starting tight end T.J. Hockenson has missed practise time this week, as has Josh Reynolds. Even if both of those players do suit up on Sunday, they won’t be at 100% and this leaves Detroit down to the barest of bones.
Seattle’s major problem has been that their defense has been poor – ranking 31st of the 32 NFL franchises through three weeks. However, there’s no doubt that Detroit’s injury problem negates their ability to exploit this particular Achilles heel. They simply don’t have the talent required.
On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks have been solid if unspectacular. They rank 16th in the league on offense and Geno Smith has surprised a few. By now we know he’s no superstar, but he beat out Drew Lock for the starting gig for a reason, and he proved in week one that he’s capable of guiding this team to wins.
Unlocking the potential of D.K. Metcalf in this offense is key, and Sunday offers up that opportunity. For all the fun and games they’re capable of on offense, the Lions are a car-crash on the defensive side of the ball.
I mentioned earlier that Seattle rank 31st in the league. Well, Detroit are stone-dead last in 32nd.
The secondary is a major concern for Detroit and this isn’t a challenge Metcalf will be shying away from. I predict a big game from the star receiver and although I suspect the final result will be relatively tight, as is always the case with the Lions, I believe Seattle have just enough firepower to spring the upset against their injured opponents.
Chicago Bears @ New York Giants
- Kick-off time: 18:00 BST, Sunday
- TV: NFL Redzone - Sky Sports Mix
- Best bet: Saquon Barkley (Giants) & Khalil Herbert (Bears) both to score a touchdown at 3/1
If you’re a fan of teams running the football, you should enjoy what the Chicago Bears and New York Giants serve up on Sunday afternoon.
I’m on board with both starting running backs scoring touchdowns in this game for a pretty simple reason. Neither team has anything else on the offensive side of the ball.
The Bears are approaching historic levels of ineptitude in the passing department, averaging just 78.3 yards per game, and the Giants must be close to abandoning the pass game entirely.
New York lost Sterling Shepherd for the season earlier in the week, Kadarius Toney looks set not to feature and Kenny Golladay – despite his mammoth contract – has been a non-factor in Brian Daboll’s offence to this point.
This leaves David Sills V and Richie James as the team’s most prominent wide-outs, and if you aren’t familiar with those names, there’s certainly no shame in that.
Thankfully though, both of these teams have found significant success on the ground. They both rank in the NFL’s top five for rushing yards so far this season, and I’d expect them both to be in similar spots this time next week.
Saquon Barkley looks back to his best, averaging a mammoth six yards per attempt, and he’ll be New York’s key to victory in what they will view as a very winnable game. I suspect he’ll get the ball at least 20 times on Sunday and that – along with the Giants’ lack of credible red-zone threats - bodes very well for his chances of finding the end zone.
In normal circumstances, the Bears losing David Montgomery to injury would significantly hamper their run game, but Khalil Herbert is proving to be one of the league’s premier back-ups, and is surely on course to nailing down a starting role of his own.
The second-year running back exploded last Sunday, delivering 157 yards and a pair of touchdowns in Chicago’s victory over the Texans. It was a performance that will have the Bears’ coaching staff eager to repeat and – much like – Barkley, I can only envisage plenty of reps (and therefore scoring opportunities) for Herbert this weekend.
Odds correct at 2230 BST (30/09/22)
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