Ross Williams picks out his best bets for Week 15 of the NFL season, with four selections on offer for the games across Sunday.
NFL betting tips: Week 15
2pts Detroit Lions to beat the New York Jets at Evens (General)
2pts Travis Kelce (Chiefs) to score a touchdown at 4/5 (Sky Bet)
2pts Denver Broncos (+1.5) to beat the Arizona Cardinals and under 39.5 total match points at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
2pts Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) to beat the Tennessee Titans at 10/11 (General)
Detroit Lions @ New York Jets
- Kick-off time: 18:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bet: Detroit Lions to beat the New York Jets
I’m done doubting the Detroit Lions. The tenacity and downright impressiveness of Dan Campbell’s troops is now impossible to ignore and Week 15 represents one of the franchise’s biggest games in recent history.
The Lions have won six straight on the spread and five from six outright, including a massive 11-point win over the Vikings last week. It’s a run of form that’s causing mass nosebleeds in the state of Michigan, but they may not be done yet.
Although unfathomable at the start of the season, Detroit have a real shot at making the playoffs and if they can do the business in New Jersey this week, they will be fancied for some January football.
Detroit do not face a team with a winning record in their final three games, so there’s a genuine chance the Lions end the season with ten wins. Since 1960, that’s a feat the franchise have only achieved seven times.
First things first though; a journey east to take on the New York Jets.
Robert Saleh’s defence has been a revelation this season and they won’t make Detroit’s task easy. The unit ranks sixth-overall in terms of points conceded and they keep things incredibly tight, giving up on average only 300 yards per game. For context, only the Eagles and the 49ers – the #1 and #3 seeds in the NFC respectively – can top that.
However, the Jets’ ability to put points on the board has been lacking of late. They have a very respectable 7-6 record, but New York’s lack of offensive proficiency has been a blocker in regards to that record being even better. On average, the Jets score 20.3 points per game. That’s vital, as that’s 6.5 points fewer than the Lions, who have found some real strike threats this year in Jamaal Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Then, of course, there’s the elephant in the room this Sunday. Or rather, the quarterback under centre.
Just a couple of weeks on from being unceremoniously dumped from the starting position, Zach Wilson will be leading the Jets this weekend and, frankly, who knows where his head will be.
The young man has talent, but his demotion wasn’t without justification and from a mental point-of-view, he’s unlikely to be thrilled at the prospect of only receiving his old job back by default. Wilson isn’t starting this weekend on merit. It’s because his replacement Mike White is injured and can’t go.
In short, it’s a mine-field of a situation for the Jets and the last thing they really need is the media attention this match-up will receive on Sunday.
It’s a big game for New York too, but momentum often pays dividends in the NFL and I like the Lions to take advantage of the Jets’ offensive disarray.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans
- Kick-off time: 18:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Mix (NFL Redzone)
- Best bet: Travis Kelce (Chiefs) to score a touchdown
Houston were the heaviest underdogs of the season last time out against the Cowboys and, to the shock of almost everyone, they very nearly pulled off the upset of the year.
It wasn’t to be in the end, but the Texans should be commended for the scare they gave Dallas.
It’s a similar story heading into this weekend however, as the Chiefs come to town. Kansas City slackened off against the Broncos last week, keeping the game much tighter than it otherwise could have been, but there’s no getting away from how impressively they marched into a 27-point lead against one of the league’s top defensive units.
There were some uncharacteristic Patrick Mahomes moments down the stretch – amounting to three interceptions – but these were rivalled by some pure, unadulterated magic in the passing game.
It was a clinic early on and I struggle to see how the league’s worst team will handle the Chiefs’ relentless, NFL-leading attack. They’re no strangers to conceding heavy early leads too, just ask the Dolphins who recently led the Texans by 30 points at the break.
With all this in mind, the handicap is tempting, but the threat of the Chiefs placing the cue on the rack in the second half is always a concern when the number is as high as 14. Plus, as Dallas saw last week, perhaps there is still some fight left in this Houston team.
Instead, I have my eyes on the touchdown scorer market, where there’s money to be made at a similar price.
The Chiefs’ offence is multi-dimensional, so the main threat changes week-to-week. Against the Broncos, it was Jerick McKinnon’s turn to shine, for example.
Amongst the running backs and wide receivers on the Chiefs’ roster, it really is a lucky dip, but there’s one constant in Andy Reid’s offence that never changes and so often delivers.
Perhaps already the greatest pass-catching tight end in NFL history, Travis Kelce is a machine.
Even on an off day for Kelce’s lofty standards, #87 went for 71 yards on four catches against the Broncos. Already on a career-best mark of 12 touchdowns this season, I fully expect the Kansas City star to feast on a hapless Texans’ defence and go in for a score.
Arizona Cardinals @ Denver Broncos
- Kick-off time: 21:05 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Mix (NFL Redzone)
- Best bet: Denver Broncos (+1.5) to beat the Arizona Cardinals and under 39.5 total match points
Although Russell Wilson’s status is yet to be confirmed, we have to assume that the Cardinals’ visit to Denver will bring us the delight of Colt McCoy versus Brett Rypien. Merry Christmas, everyone.
It’s a quarterback match-up that even the purest of the purists would turn their nose up at, but it does offer us some potential value.
The Cardinals are dreadful defensively and stone-dead last among the 32 NFL teams in terms of points conceded (26.8 per game). However, the Broncos’ offence is also the worst in the league, as they’ve averaged a pitiful 14.9 points per match-up this year, and that’s before throwing in the addition of Rypien, a quarterback who may be starting just his third professional game.
On the other side of the coin, the Cardinals have racked up 50 points in the three games Colt McCoy has taken the majority of quarterback snaps, in the absence of the injury-stricken Kyler Murray. That’s 50 points combined.
Now add in Denver’s status as the fourth-ranked defence in the league and it’s pretty obvious that the under is well and truly in play for this game. In many ways these two teams are the complete inverse of each other, which generally makes for a chess match, with plenty of possession changes and punts.
There’s obvious value in going under the total match points line of 37, but that figure is about as low as NFL games tend to ever go, so the odds-makers have not been caught out with this one. For a little more insurance and a touch extra value, I like the idea of extending the line to 39.5 and doubling it up with a Denver victory, along with a little help on the spread.
Denver are slight favourites on the money line so I think this is a smart move. This will likely be a godawful game of football, but I’ll take the home team with the far-stronger defence to out-muscle a spiralling Arizona side in a low-scoring affair.
Tennessee Titans @ Los Angeles Chargers
- Kick-off time: 21:25 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Mix (NFL Redzone)
- Best bet: Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) to beat the Tennessee Titans
Trevor Lawrence had a field day last week, tuning up the Titans with ease.
Despite very little help from the ground game, the Jacksonville quarterback had success-after-success, ending the day with almost 370 yards and three touchdowns.
As impressive as Lawrence was, it was a pitiful display from the Tennessee defence and, unfortunately for them, they now have to travel all the way across the country to face a quarterback in Justin Herbert that can make every throw Lawrence can, and a few more for good measure.
Three straight defeats have threatened to de-rail the Titans’ season and with off-field drama also bubbling away due to the recent firing of their general manager, you can’t help but feel that things are going to get worse before they get better.
There’s an ill feeling around the team at present – despite their position atop the AFC South – and this seems like a perfect time to be backing against them. Derrick Henry even had two fumbles against the Jaguars, which accounts for 16.6% of his TOTAL career fumbles. He’s only had 12 since he entered the league back in 2016.
There’s no doubt about it, something’s off.
As for the Chargers, they’re not the safest bet in the NFL by any means, but Herbert will be fancying a big day at the office. Only the Vikings have given up more passing yardage than the Titans’ defence and Herbert is enjoying the best stretch of his season so far.
The former Oregon star has played three games since his last turnover and has hit 300 yards in each of his last two outings. He’ll have opportunities to rack up some monster numbers on Sunday and I don’t believe this Titans team - in the funk they seem to be stuck in – have the firepower to live with Herbert on his home patch.
Odds correct as of 1130 GMT (17/12/22)
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