NFL tips: Super Bowl LVIII betting tips, prop bets and MVP analysis featuring Jalen Hurts

NFL betting tips: Super Bowl LVIII

1pt Jalen Hurts to be named NFL MVP at 12/1 (bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair)

2pts Philadelphia Eagles to be the latest unbeaten team at 6/1 (Sky Bet)

4pts Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen both to throw 35+ regular season touchdowns at 5/2 (Sky Bet)

5pts Garrett Wilson (Jets) 1250+ Receiving Yards at 11/8 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

The longest offseason in major sport (or so it feels like) has almost come to a close. At last, the NFL returns this week as the Kansas City Chiefs look to justify favouritism once again and retain the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

As ever, the months leading into the new campaign have brought storylines aplenty and a number of those will be discussed here, but ultimately 32 teams have arrived on the precipice of the new season, each loaded with 53 players and the dream of walking out at Super Bowl 58 – though admittedly, for a number of those 32 franchises, a dream is all it will ever be.

As ever, the Chiefs and their mercurial quarterback (and Netflix star?) Patrick Mahomes will be hard to overcome. They enter September as 6/1 favourites, though they will face stiff competition this season with a third of the league no longer than 20/1 shots.

Without further ado, here are my recommendations for the season ahead.

Everybody (Loves) Hurts

Perhaps it’s easy to say, just a few months removed from being a solitary score away from Super Bowl glory, but I like the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES this year, and particularly their quarterback.

There’s more adversity to overcome this time around, with a new set of coordinators to bed in and a defence that’s gone through something of a re-build this offseason, so that does throw me off the scent of backing them at a short 7/1 to win it all, but there’s value when it comes to the man under centre.

Offensively, the Eagles were as well-rounded as they come in the National Football League last season. On the ground, Philly were a top-five offence and the aerial attack via the likes of A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert placed ninth among the NFL’s elite.

All told, Philadelphia were averaging over 28 points per game in the regular season (third amongst all teams) and when the playoffs rolled around, the Eagles were lights-out. Over the course of three, high-pressure postseason games, Philly were averaging a massive 34.7 points.

JALEN HURTS – who has already obtained superstardom from the quarterback position – isn’t going anywhere after inking a $250m deal over the summer and at just 25, there’s a sense that his ceiling is yet to be hit. It will take a special quarterback to dethrone Mahomes but, if anyone is capable, Hurts and his ability to strike through the air – and with his legs – may be the answer.

• CLICK HERE to back Hurts with Sky Bet

The rest of his offence remains similar to a year ago, too. Four of Philly’s starting five linemen are set to take to the field week one – which is a solid return by NFL standards – and the receiver group of Brown, Goedert and DeVonta Smith are only likely to consolidate or improve on an impressive year.

Miles Sanders has moved on, but reinforcements have arrived in the form of Rashaad Penny and – most notably – D’Andre Swift, who has shown flashes of brilliance in his first three seasons in the league and been crying out for an injury-free run in an offence that will suit his game.

The Eagles’ defence raises question marks heading into this season after a number of starters followed DC Jonathan Gannon out of the door. Those questions could well be answered early if Philly’s offseason approach has been successful, with the likes of highly-rated rookie Jalen Carter joining the squad, but it’s tough to give full backing to a unit that we simply haven’t seen in the heat of battle.

For that reason, they’re probably a shade too short to put full confidence in a Super Bowl tilt, but I am interested in the MVP market.

With a tricky strength of schedule on paper, momentum will be key for the Eagles. Philadelphia run a gauntlet of Dallas, Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco and Dallas again, all in succession this season. However, the first of those games doesn’t come around until November.

By that point, the Eagles should be well into the swing of things and will have only faced teams that either missed the playoffs entirely last season or fell at the first hurdle.

In other words, Philadelphia have a real chance of stamping their authority on the league in the early stretch with a string of wins and it’s realistic to say that they may head to Dallas with an 8-0 record.

• CLICK HERE to back the Eagles with Sky Bet

With that in mind, 6/1 is a price that’s worth a stab in the LAST UNBEATEN TEAM market and if the Eagles’ start is as strong as I suspect, Hurts will soon be the frontrunner in the MVP race.

His passing stats were outstanding in 2022 despite a couple of games on the sidelines and that’s before you even consider his 760 rushing yards, which amounted to a massive 13 touchdowns on the ground. He has the potential to define himself as the ultimate dual-threat quarterback this season and, behind the same stable line that brought him success a year ago, we may be about to witness something otherworldly,

Super Bowl LVIII team-by-team guide from Matt Temple-Marsh

Mahomes will forever be favourite for the award but, after his heroics in the playoffs this year, the sport’s media will be quick to latch onto Hurts this season if Philadelphia are leading the way in the standings and, at 12/1, he’s certainly the value selection.

Consistency pays

My next recommended bet is one that relies on the health of the two players involved, but I have every confidence that it lands if they can both stay on the field. Crucially, they have both shown incredible resilience in recent times, playing their way through knocks time and time again.

PATRICK MAHOMES and JOSH ALLEN to each throw 35+ passing touchdowns during the regular season comes in at a healthy price of 5/2 in Sky Bet’s RequestABet market and that strikes me as very tempting indeed.

• CLICK HERE to back Mahomes & Allen RAB with Sky Bet

The two superstar passers have set the league alight in the last few years and they’ve both surpassed the 35-touchdown mark in each of the last three seasons. That includes 2020, when the league year only lasted 16 games as opposed to the current 17, and last season which only involved 16 games for Allen, due to an abandonment against the Bengals.

In short, passing for 35 touchdowns is very much in the wheelhouse of these two and, with 5/2 on offer, this is an excellent long-term punt to keep track of.

Mahomes has thrown 192 touchdowns during his (still relatively young) 80-game career. That means he’s averaged 2.4 passing touchdowns per game since his NFL debut.

It’s hard to truly comprehend how impressive that stat is but, for context, only two other quarterbacks (that have played more than two games) in NFL history have averaged more than two touchdowns per game. For further context, those two quarterbacks that Mahomes has left in his dust are named Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning.

Tom Brady, widely accepted to be the greatest player of all time, averaged 1.94 touchdowns per game over the course of his career.

Mahomes is a whole different animal to what has been before.

As for Allen, his career stats aren’t quite as impressive due to his pretty humble start to life as an NFL quarterback. Unlike his Kansas City counterpart, Allen required time and a fair bit of coaching to reach the lofty heights he’s now hit, but his last three seasons have been remarkable.

The penny seemed to drop for Allen in the Covid-hit season of 2020 and he simply exploded. A year on from a solid-if-unspectacular campaign where he recorded 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns, Allen went off, racking up 37 scores and a near 50% uptick in passing yardage.

He became a superstar over the course of four months and he hasn’t looked back, maintaining an exceptional level ever since.

If you take Allen’s last three seasons in isolation, he averages a passing touchdown every 2.2 games, which would slot him just behind Mahomes in the all-time list of elite scoring consistency.

The maths is the maths and – with both Kansas City and Buffalo tipped to dominate the AFC landscape yet again this season – there’s very little reason for concern.

The two stars maintaining their average would result in 40 and 37 touchdowns respectively, which even allows for the breathing space that would come in handy should the Chiefs or Bills decide to rest starters and put the cue on the rack in a dead rubber final game of the season.

With this selection, we’re essentially betting on two of the most resilient and durable quarterbacks in recent history staying healthy and, at 5/2, I like those odds.

Gotham’s new dynamic duo

One of the major story-lines of the offseason – only emphasised by the Hard Knocks cameras – has been, of course, Aaron Rodgers donning a different shade of green in 2023. After more than a year of disagreement, frustration and flirtation, the Green Bay Packers and New York Jets finally came to terms, ending Rodgers’ long affiliation with the Wisconsin outfit.

It’s a new era for the future Hall of Famer but, with the years ticking by, there’s no time like the present. With a promising young team around him and an exciting head coach at the helm at the Meadowlands, the Jets have their best chance at making a title run since the days of Rex Ryan.

At a relatively skinny outright price of 16/1, I’d struggle to throw my full weight behind the Jets’ cause, at least until I’ve seen them in the heat of regular season action, but I do like a long-term player prop bet for the Jets.

If you’ve followed Rodgers’ career at all, you’ve also followed the career of Davante Adams. Before his move to Las Vegas prior to last season, Adams was Rodgers’ #1 receiver option in Green Bay and he delivered some staggering displays, going over 1,000 receiving yards three times and hitting a near-as-makes-no-difference figure of 997 yards twice more.

Rodgers does not have Adams with him in New York, but he does have the Offensive Rookie of the Year.

GARRETT WILSON was excellent in his maiden NFL season and his trajectory only looks to be going one way. Interestingly, just a few weeks ago, Rodgers made the bold step of comparing Wilson to his old teammate, insisting that the 23-year-old shares traits with Adams, beyond simply sharing the #17 jersey number.

• CLICK HERE to back Wilson with Sky Bet

Knowing the kinship that Adams and Rodgers have shared over the years, this is a big deal and by the quarterback’s own admission, the comments are not to be taken lightly. Wilson is regarded as a serious #1 NFL receiver by one of the best to ever do it, which means we should strike while the iron’s hot and the value’s still there.

Wilson picked up a cool 1,103 receiving yards in his rookie year from 83 receptions. A great return by any measure (it’s 57 yards more than Ja’Marr Chase managed from 87 catches) but it’s even more impressive when you consider the Jets’ quarterback situation in 2022. With the wheels well and truly off the Zach Wilson bandwagon, New York limped through the season with a mixture of Mike White and an ageing Joe Flacco leading the offence.

The quarterback position looks a lot stronger this season with Rodgers in situ, and pre-season has already showcased that a connection is there. It was little more than a cameo for the Jets’ starters in week three, but it was telling. Of Rodgers’ eight passing attempts, Wilson caught three, including a beautiful touchdown grab in the red-zone.

There was also an extra deep shot that was fired Wilson’s way, which resulted in a Jets penalty. The trust is there for all to see and I believe it could result in a monster year for the sophomore receiver.

Wilson to have 1250+ receiving yards this season is priced at a tempting 11/8 and is well worth a shot. At the rate that Wilson picked up yards last season – approximately 13.2 yards per reception – he’d need just 11 more catches on the year to hit that mark.

Eleven catches isn’t nothing, but when you consider that Wilson was actually targeted 147 times in 2022 and the accuracy of his quarterback sky-rockets this season, a 94-catch season looks pretty realistic.

I’d even take a look at the 1500+ yard prop (priced at 5/1) if you’re particularly confident in Rodgers’ ability to maintain his levels this season.

It’s a naturally tougher ask, but Adams managed the feat with Rodgers in 2021 and if Wilson can stay healthy and hover around seven catches per game, he’ll be right in the mix as the Jets’ clear-cut best receiving option.

Posted at 1720 BST on 03/10/23

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