NFL tips: Super Bowl LVIII betting tips and team-by-team guide

NFL betting tips: Super Bowl LVIII

2pts Atlanta Falcons to win NFC South at 2/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Chicago Bears under 7.5 wins at 1/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Washington Commanders over 6.5 wins at 1/1 (Sky Bet)

0.5pts Jacksonville Jaguars to be no.1 seed in AFC at 11/1 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

NFC North – Winner: Detroit Lions at 11/8

Detroit Lions

• Key player: Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Win total: Over 9.5 wins at 8/11

In Dan Campbell’s third year the Detroit Lions will be hopeful of an elusive NFC North division title, and with good reason. The Lions defied expectations last year, finishing with a 9-8 record, on the cusp of the playoffs. Their offence is electric, powered by a top 5 offensive line and the Jared Goff resurrection. Wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is a superstar in the making and don’t be surprised if he leads the league in receptions. He’s a target machine.

The Lions added talent at running back with rookie Jahmyr Gibbs who is set for a prominent role in this offence, alongside fellow rookie tight end Sam LaPorta. The Lions downfall however is their defence. In 2022 they had a top five scoring offence paired with the fourth worst defence. There have been improvements with astute free agency signings and draft picks (they need to see production out of defensive end Aidan Hutchinson), but the division is noticeably weaker – clearing the path for the Lions to make the postseason.

Minnesota Vikings

• Key player: Justin Jefferson
• Win total: Over 8.5 wins at 4/6

The Minnesota Vikings over performed at a level the NFL may have never seen before. They stormed to the NFC North title with a 13-4 record, yet they had a negative points differential (-3). The defence was an embarrassment, conceding the third most points in the league – and they have lost premier talent in cap cutting casualties (Za’Darius Smith, Patrick Peterson). Plus, on the offence, elite running back Dalvin Cook was cut in another money-saving exercise. RB Alex Mattison has shown promise, but it’s no easy thing to replace a 1,000 yard rusher.

There is hope, however, with Brian Flores coming in as the defensive coordinator – an elite defensive coach who is well respected around the league and should be able to improve this unit. On the offence, Kirk Cousins will forever split opinions but he’s nothing but productive, especially with Justin Jefferson, one of the best receivers in the league. Luck won’t favour the Vikings nearly as much this year, but it would be no surprise to see them in the playoffs once more.

Green Bay Packers

• Key player: Jaire Alexander
• Win total: Under 7.5 wins at 1/1

For the first time in 30 years the Green Bay Packers will head into a new season without either Brett Farve or Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. Jordan Love is next in line, and the expectations for Green Bay are understandably low. Love has been in the league for three years, but he’s played so little, it’s anyone’s guess as to how effective the quarterback will be – pre-season outings have been up and down to say the least. It doesn’t help that there is so much youth across WR and TE – with all starters being first or second year players. There is talent (Christian Watson has flashed), but with such a raw QB a veteran presence would go a long way.

Unlike the offence, the defence has consistency. This is a group filled with talent at all levels but needs to improve at defending the run (Green Bay ranked as the sixth best pass defence, and seventh worst rush defence). The success of Matt LaFleur’s team ultimately hinges on Love – and we can expect a bumpy ride.

Chicago Bears

• Key player: Justin Fields
• Win total: Under 7.5 wins at 1/1

Justin Fields is one of the biggest question marks heading into the season. We could see a Jalen Hurts MVP-esque level rise or watch him continue in mediocrity as a passer. There is no denying Fields rushing ability – as arguably the best rushing QB in the league already. It’s his passing that is lacking – there were moments last season where he ranked among the worst in the league.

Chicago has done a good job in adding talent around Fields, with premier WR DJ Moore arriving from Carolina. However, the offensive line still looks weak and offensive coordinator Luke Getsy is yet to prove himself. The defence was the worst in the league in 2022, and while they spent big in free agency the pass rush is still greatly lacking. The Bears are set to improve, but don’t expect much – they can double their win total from last year and still hit the win total under!

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NFC East – Winner: Dallas Cowboys at 7/4

Dallas Cowboys

• Key player: Micah Parsons
• Win total: Over 9.5 wins at 4/7

There is a case that Micah Parsons is the best player in the NFL – one of the league’s great ascending talents. The Swiss army knife has bulked up and is set to make a more permanent move to defensive end – keep an eye on him for defensive player of the year at 9/2. The defence has improved, managing to retain DC Dan Campbell and bringing in CB Stephon Gilmore, and this might be the best defence in the league.

On the offence the Cowboys jettisoned former OC Kellen Moore – with HC Mike McCarthy & OC Brian Schottenheimer now running the show. We can expect more of a rushing attack and definitely fewer Dak Prescott interceptions. The Cowboys won’t be as flashy, but they will be efficient and hard to score against. We can expect to see this team in January.

Philadelphia Eagles

• Key player: Jalen Hurts
• Win total: Under 11.5 wins at 1/1

The Eagles are still a great team and I expect to see them in the playoffs, but the Super Bowl hangover is real, especially when the team loses their offensive and defensive coordinators, along with key players from their defence.

The only concern with the offence is their new OC Brian Johnson, who has yet to call plays at the NFL level. However, there is great consistency with this group, with only major changes at running back. Jalen Hurts will continue to thrive with WRs AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith causing havoc to opposing cornerbacks. The defence will be relying on youth stepping up, with rookie Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean all set for prominent roles. This is still a loaded unit, but another deep post-season run feels a step too far.

Ross Williams' Super Bowl LVIII betting preview

Washington Commanders

• Key player: Jonathan Allen
• Win total: Over 6.5 wins at 1/1

To the pleasure of their fans, the Washington Commanders were sold this off season and new ownership is in town. Head coach Ron Rivera needs to make a big impression in 2023 if he wants to keep his job, and the Commanders are a severely underrated team.

Last season the Commanders ranked as one of the stingiest defences, allowing the seventh fewest points in the league, and now the offence has serious juice. Longtime Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy has joined as OC and this group could shock fans across the league. Second year QB Sam Howell is taking over as starter and has flashed in his limited appearances so far. WR duo Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson may be the most underrated duo in the league – this group will move the chains with ease. Their win total over/under is so low given their division and schedule, but this is a team to watch.

• CLICK HERE to back Commanders Over 6.5 wins

New York Giants

• Key player: Saquon Barkley
• Win total: Under 7.5 wins at 4/5

Contract discussions have been the talk of the Giants’ off season, from Daniel Jones mega-deal to Saquon Barkley’s on and off again saga. Both players are back and much more expensive than last year – where the Giants shocked many and reached the post season.

Head coach Brian Daboll’s impact is clear to see, but this team lives and dies by Saquon. The running back is the heartbeat of the Giants, and his health will be a huge factor. QB Jones has been average to say the least and a lacking WR room won’t help. However, new TE Darren Waller looks to add some spice to their receiving corps. On the defence there has been little in the way of new faces, but Wink Martindale is still in town running his high velocity defence – high risk, high reward.

The Giants schedule is a big factor, however, with seven of their first ten games on the road, plus they play their first three games in the space of the first eleven days of the season. It’s going to be a rocky start, and we can expect regression from last year where the Giants massively outperformed expectations.

NFC South – Winner: Atlanta Falcons at 2/1

Atlanta Falcons

• Key player: Bijan Robinson
• Win total: Over 8.5 wins at 5/6

Atlanta is arguably the most improved team in the NFL, with major defensive improvements. They signed 12 free agents, with eight of them on the defence. Calais Campbell and Jessie Bates stand out as the star names, but they are a much more well-rounded unit, with huge year on year growth in the secondary.

Arthur Smith’s relentless rushing scheme was effective in 2022, and adding one of the best RB draft prospects ever in Bijan Robinson is more than exciting. He’s immediately one of the best backs in the league, and joins an offence filled with young talent – WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts and a loaded offensive line.

Naturally this team will go as far as QB Desmond Ridder can take them – he’s unproven but steady, plus in Smith’s run-first scheme the propensity for error is reduced. Don’t expect the Falcons to win the Super Bowl, but double-digit wins are well within reach. This division and their schedule are favourable to say the least.

• CLICK HERE to back Falcons to win NFC South

New Orleans Saints

• Key player: Derek Carr
• Win total: Over 9.5 wins at 6/5

Adding Derek Carr is the talking point of the New Orleans Saints. Carr is a four-time pro-bowler who has shown promise throughout his career, but his production took a hit in 2022, resulting in a messy break-up with the Las Vegas Raiders – where he was benched. Carr will be an upgrade on Andy Dalton, but it depends on what version we see of the QB.

This veteran defence has been consistent for years, and shined as the second best pass defence in 2022. However, they allowed the ninth most rushing yards in the league, which cost them last season.

Head coach Dennis Allen has struggled so far, but this division is so poor that New Orleans will be able to stack wins. Look out for WR Chris Olave to breakout and expect big numbers.

Carolina Panthers

• Key player: Brian Burns
• Win total: Under 7.5 wins at 10/11

There’s a new face of the franchise, number one overall pick Bryce Young. The Alabama QB is an exciting prospect, but this is a bad offensive situation to enter. The offensive line is lacking, and the wide receiver room is possibly the worst in the league – with Adam Thielen, DJ Chark and Jonathan Mingo as the top three.

The defence is loaded with talent, and Ejior Evero joins as defensive coordinator after flashing with Denver. This is a strong unit, but the offence will be turbulent as Young finds his feet in the NFL in what is a learning year for the Panthers.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Key player: Mike Evans
• Win total: Under 6.5 wins at 4/6

Baker Mayfield is the starting quarterback for the Bucs as the franchise moves into the post Tom Brady era – spoiler alert, these first couple of years are not going to be good.

Todd Bowles faces a huge uphill climb to make this team competitive in 2023. New offensive coordinator Dave Canales has never called plays in his career – so we can expect some bumps along the way.

There is still premier talent peppered around this roster, but there are major holes throughout. The Bucs could be competing for the number one overall pick in next year’s draft.

NFC West: Winner: San Francisco 49ers at 8/13

San Francisco 49ers

• Key player: Christian McCaffrey
• Win total: Over 10.5 wins at 4/6

The quarterback story has clouded the 49ers offseason, but ultimately Brock Purdy is healthy and back to lead this offence. He ended the season as one of the most efficient passers in the league, in Kyle Shanahan’s loaded offense – this is possibly the most electric offense in the NFL.

On the defence, new DT Javon Hargrave joins from the Eagles in what is a terrifying front seven. Former DeMaco Ryans left to become HC of the Texans and now Steve Wilks has stepped in – who should be able to continue the 49ers streak as one of the best defences in the league.

The Rams and Cardinals figure to have lacking years, as the 49ers will cruise to another post-season appearance.

Seattle Seahawks

• Key player: Geno Smith
• Win total: Over 8.5 wins at 4/6

Geno Smith’s resurrection was one of the stories of the year – serving as an incredibly accurate and efficient quarterback. The Seahawks had a brilliant off season, adding a handful of promising rookies who will make an instant impact, alongside the return of legendary linebacker Bobby Wagner.

There could be more of a pass rushing presence, but this is a well-rounded youthful roster, with a viable path to the playoffs. They posted a 9-8 record last season, and there’s no reason to see why this team will regress.

Los Angeles Rams

• Key player: Aaron Donald
• Win total: Under 6.5 wins at 4/6

There has been serious turnover for the Rams, and 2023 will be a confusing year for the team. No team had more offensive line combinations last year than the Rams, and that line is set to be one of the worst in the league again – which is bad news for QB Matthew Stafford who struggled with injury throughout the 2022 campaign.

Cooper Kupp is the star name on offence but he had an injury plagued 2022 and is going into the new season with hamstring issues. Outside of Kupp – this WR room is extremely thin, which is a serious issue.

McVay is a brilliant coach but this is a serious challenge for a highly inexperienced team, in a tough division.

Arizona Cardinals

• Key player: Budda Baker
• Win total: Under 4.5 wins at 4/6

This is a bad season to be a fan of the Arizona Cardinals. Just days before the season gets underway the team released QB Colt McCoy who was set to start and traded for Joshua Dobbs. Don’t be shocked if we don’t see Kyler Murray all year – this is a team setting up for the future. They could get quite the trade package for Murray, alongside their own first round pick and the Texans’ first round selection. The future is exciting for Arizona, but 2023 will not be.

There is lacking talent all over the roster – especially on defence. They will be competing for the number one overall pick in next year's draft.

AFC North: Winner: Cincinnati Bengals at 6/4

Cincinnati Bengals

• Key player: Joe Burrow
• Win total: Over 11.5 wins at 1/1

This is the toughest division in football to predict. Feasibly any of the four teams could win the AFC North and it would be no surprise – but Joe Burrow is one of the best players in the league and is in pole position to guide the Bengals to another AFC North title.

Left tackle Orlando Brown is the major addition for the Bengals, as we can finally hope for more protection for Joe Burrow. The offence still boasts Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins – two of the most talented WRs in the NFL.

On defence, DC Lou Anarumo has done an excellent job in coaching up this defence, but they have lost key players this off season – in Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell. They will need an instant impact from their young additions.

The Bengals are on the hunt for a Super Bowl and are rightly one of the favourites. Expect to see this team in January and beyond.

Baltimore Ravens

• Key player: Lamar Jackson
• Win total: Over 10.5 wins at 4/6

The Ravens live and die by Lamar Jackon’s health. We are yet to see him hit the heights from his MVP campaign, with last season plagued by injury. Plus, new offensive coordinator Todd Monken is taking over, where we may see a new version of Lamar. The Ravens have done a good job in finally adding weapons – bringing in talented rookie Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr at WR – alongside a top ten offensive line.

The defence is consistent but still screaming out for an elite pass rusher, but it’s a solid unit overall. If Lamar can stay healthy the Ravens are going to be blockbuster and could easily win this division. I still prefer the Bengals, but the sky is the limit for Baltimore.

Pittsburgh Steelers

• Key player: TJ Watt
• Win total: Over 8.5 wins at 8/13

Mike Tomlin managed to keep his winning streak alive – he’s never had a losing season as HC, as the Steelers won six out of their last seven games last season to climb to a 9-8 record. There is a lot of promise on this roster, alongside a lot of questions.

Primarily QB Kenny Pickett showed flashes alongside a lot of low moments. They will need a big jump from their signal caller, but he has shown he has the tools to succeed – we can expect to see more of his rushing capabilities in 2023.

The defence is menacing, and if TJ Watt can stay healthy don’t be shocked to see him break the all-time NFL sack record.

It’s the run game that needs major improvement – this could be Najee Harris’ last chance. The RB is yet to average over four yards per carry in his NFL career. We can expect to see more Jaylen Warren this year – who has flashed in pre season. This is an extremely tough division, but you just cannot rule the Steelers out.

Cleveland Browns

• Key player: Myles Garrett
• Win total: Under 9.5 wins at 4/6

Deshaun Watson. The Cleveland Browns are totally dependent on whether Deshaun Watson returns to his MVP calibre from his time with the Texans, or if we see a continuation of his 2022 return. The early reports from the off season are that Watson is still struggling, which is worrying news for a franchise who paid so much, both to the quarterback and for the trade.

The roster is filled with talent, RB Nick Chubb is as good as they come, whilst Myles Garrett leads a strong defensive unit. But ultimately in a division as difficult as this, your season rests on your quarterback. This could be the end of Kevin Stefanski’s tenure as Browns HC, as the team may look to a new saviour to try and resurrect Watson’s career.

AFC East: Winner: Buffalo Bills at 6/5

Buffalo Bills

• Key player: Josh Allen
• Win total: Over 10.5 wins at 8/11

It’s been a tough three seasons for the Bills, losing in the AFC Championship in 2020 and then in the divisional round in both 2021 and 2022. However, the Bills have racked up 37 regular season wins in that span (alongside three division titles), and there’s no reason to shy away from them now.

The Bills boast a Championship level roster with little turnover from last season. RB James Cook is set for a more prominent role – a good rushing attack is something the Bills have lacked and Cook has the potential to lead the way. Rookie first round selection Dalton Kincaid adds even more juice to the offense, serving as a hybrid tight end/slot receiver who was nothing but dominant at college.

The defence has great consistency, and whilst DC Leslie Frazier leaving the team may be a concern to some – it is HC Sean McDermott who will be running the defence, a move that I love. We are witnessing Josh Allen’s prime, and he will guide the team to another AFC East title and potentially more.

New York Jets

• Key player: Aaron Rodgers
• Win total: Over 9.5 wins at 8/11

The New York Jets are the most exciting team in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers left Green Bay for gang green, and the expectations for the Jets are sky high. Head coach Robert Saleh needs a playoff run or his job will be on the line, but the Jets certainly have the talent to do so.

The roster is youthful, but they boast some of the best players in the league. Rookie of the year duo Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner are already two of the best players in their field, and the entire defence finished 2022 as a top five unit.

However, the offensive line is questionable to say the least – in 2022 PFF had them ranked 31st. Having Rodgers behind centre will naturally improve the group with his command of the pocket, but this will be key as to whether the Jets’ are successful in 2023. A tough schedule will be a challenge too, but they have more than enough to reach the post season.

Miami Dolphins

• Key player: Tyreek Hill
• Win total: Under 9.5 wins at 5/6

Ultimately the Dolphins season will come down to health. Tua Tagovailoa has struggled to stay healthy – last year we saw two horrible concussions in back-to-back weeks that ultimately cost them their season. Tua has bulked up this off season and if he can stay healthy, he’s one of the most productive quarterbacks in HC Mike McDaniel’s system – he led the league in passer rating last year.

Injuries are already ravaging the team though – star CB Jalen Ramsey joined in the off season but suffered a knee injury that has ruled him out until well into the season. RB Jeff Wilson is beginning the season on injured reserve, and exciting RB rookie De’Von Achane is struggling with a shoulder injury. On the offensive line, star OT Terron Armstead is already questionable for week one – a player who routinely struggles to stay healthy in what is such an important position.

There is hope though – Mike McDaniel is one of the most exciting play callers in the league, and on the defence the Dolphins managed to recruit Vic Fangio as DC. There is an abundance of talent on this team, but this is an incredibly tough division that has only improved – and so much hinges on health, with a group of players who seldom manage to see out a full season.

New England Patriots

• Key player: Rhamondre Stevenson
• Win total: Over 7.5 wins at 1/1

You simply cannot write off the New England Patriots – who were on the cusp of reaching the post season in 2022. Bill Belichick is one of the greatest coaches the NFL has ever seen, and the addition of Bill O’Brien as OC is definitely exciting - we can finally move past the embarrassment of OC Matt Patricia. We can expect to see a bounce back season from Mac Jones – but don’t expect the QB to post pro bowl level numbers, the WR room is lacking to say the least.

On defence the Patriots are criminally underrated – in 2022 they were second in takeaways, fourth in sacks and led the league in takeaways. This an incredibly well coached unit, with great consistency who will be amongst the best in the league.

The problem for the Patriots is their division, and the offensive firepower they boast. And an interesting subplot is time may be running out for Bill Belichick, with rumblings that owner Robert Kraft is losing patience in the post Tom Brady era. If things go south for the Patriots this will be one of the biggest stories in the NFL.

AFC South: Winners: Jacksonville Jaguars at 4/6

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Key player: Trevor Lawrence
• Win total: Over 9.5 wins at 8/13

Trevor Lawrence is the real deal. We can forget the disastrous season Jacksonville had under Urban Meyer, and since then Lawrence has proved he’s a top 10 quarterback in the league. To sweeten the pot, the Jags traded for elite WR Calvin Ridley who is returning from his lengthy suspension. If Ridley returns to his old heights, this is going to be an electric duo that will wreak havoc on a putrid AFC South.

Outside of Ridley, the Jags have failed to improve their roster. The offensive line lost Jawaan Taylor, and Cam Robinson is suspended for four games to start the season. On defence the group is largely unchanged, and this was a poor unit in 2022. We desperately need to see an impact from former first overall pick Travon Walker, and more consistency from Josh Allen, but having Lawrence at QB is enough to keep this team more than competitive.

Pair that with a poor division and a more than favourable schedule – and the Jags are going to rack up a lot of wins in 2023. Keep an eye on them for the number one seed in the AFC at 11/1.

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Tennessee Titans

• Key player: Derrick Henry
• Win total: Over 7.5 wins at 10/11

The Titans made a big free agency splash and secured the signing of DeAndre Hopkins. We’ll need to see what version of Hopkins the Titans get, but it’s a huge add for a team desperate for WR help. Ryan Tannehill is a greatly underappreciated quarterback who is in a better position in 2023 than a year ago – with better weapons and a better offensive line. Look out for breakout years from Treylon Burks and Chig Okonkwo.

The defence is loaded – their pass rush and safeties are amongst the very best in the league. Cornerback has been a position the Titans have invested a lot of draft capital in over the years, and they’re still yet to see any solid returns. This group looks weak going into the season once more, but if the front seven can apply pressure it’ll certainly help the secondary out.

The Titans have a soft schedule, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them playing football in January.

Houston Texans

• Key player: Laremy Tunsil
• Win total: Under 6.5 wins at 4/6

The Texans have been a laughingstock for the past three seasons, stacking up just eleven wins in that span – with three different head coaches. Former 49ers DC DeMaco Ryans is the new HC and there is a strong sense of hope around the Texans. This team has drafted well in and there’s a brand-new quarterback in town – CJ Stroud.

However, it’s still going to be a tough season for Houston. This is an incredibly young roster, and there are still major holes throughout the team. Stroud will need to get off to an incredibly hot start for this team to be competitive, and that will be tough given the state of their weapons. Expect a big improvement from Houston – but don’t get carried away.

Indianapolis Colts

• Key player: Jonathan Taylor
• Win total: Under 6.5 wins at 10/11

Jonathan Taylor is one of the best running backs in the NFL. It’s very likely he won’t play for the Colts this year – with contract negotiations turning sour and the relationship with owner Jim Irsay up in flames.

There is hope for the Colts though, with brand new HC Shane Steichen in town, alongside athletic marvel rookie QB Anthony Richardson. Richardson is going to be box office – his mobility will make him one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the league instantly. However, the passing is going to be a rollercoaster. Richardson’s problem during college was inaccuracy, completing just 53.8% of his passes in his final season – so we can expect a lot of growing pains.

On defence this is a mixed bag. The front seven features the elite DeForrest Buckner and Shaq Leonard. But the secondary is worrying – having lost former DPOY Stephon Gilmore and promising CB Isiah Rodgers. There is a lot of inexperience in this unit, and the Colts will likely give up a lot of points.

AFC West: Winner: Kansas City Chiefs at 4/7

Kansas City Chiefs

• Key player: Patrick Mahomes
• Win total: Over 11.5 wins at 4/6

Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are simply unstoppable. The duo has won five straight AFC West titles, averaging 12.8 regular season wins every season. Mahomes is simply the best player in the league, and arguably the greatest QB the NFL has ever seen. Many thought that losing Tyreek Hill would be a big blow, but it was business as usual for KC.

Travis Kelce is 33 now and again, many thought his production would start to round off – yet he posted career highs in receptions and touchdowns. Don’t doubt him again. Youth is going to start to factor in more for Kansas, expect Isiah Pacheco to have a more prominent role, and at WR look out for Skyy Moore – but overall, the roster has had minimal turnover from the Super Bowl winning campaign.

Elite DT Chris Jones is in the middle of a contract holdout that is going to linger into the season. Jones’ impact is evident to see – over the last five years when Jones is on the field Kansas lead the league in quarterback pressure percentage. Without him they drop to 28th in the league, so the sooner they re-sign their start the better.

Ultimately Mahomes is just too good. Expect another deep playoff run.

Los Angeles Chargers

• Key player: Justin Herbert
• Win total: Over 9.5 wins at 8/13

On paper everything is there for the Chargers. This is a star-laden roster with some of NFL’s very best. In terms of talent Herbert is a top three QB, and new OC Kellen Moore will look to take him to the next level.

Injuries have plagued the Chargers, with key players such as Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, Keenan Allen, Derwin James, JC Jackson and more all missing serious time last year. If the Chargers can dodge injury then this roster has all the tools to succeed, but that has been true of the Chargers for several seasons now.

Last year it was an embarrassing playoff loss to the Jaguars after being 27-0 up. This is likely HC Brandon Staley’s last chance – with a playoff victory being the bare minimum.

Denver Broncos

• Key player: Russell Wilson
• Win total: Under 8.5 wins at 8/11

Sean Payton is in town and the brand-new regime is here. The huge question is will Payton be able to resurrect Russell Wilson’s career? The 2022 Denver Broncos were an embarrassment, with Wilson looking like a shadow of his former self, as one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL.

Is it likely Wilson returns to being a top 10 QB? Probably not, but Payton should be able to instil a sound running game (with the return of Javonte Williams), and just needs a game management performance from Wilson.

On defence the Broncos lost talented DC Ejiro Evero to the Panthers, but it’s a complete unit that will be competitive. Injuries are already having an impact, with WR Tim Patrick unfortunately missing his second straight season – and Jerry Jeudy was carted off practice in the pre season. If this team can get anywhere near .500 that will be a success, but temper expectations.

Las Vegas Raiders

• Key player: Davante Adams
• Win total: Under 6.5 wins at 8/11

Derek Carr is gone and Jimmy Garoppolo is the new face of the franchise, reconnecting with HC Josh McDaniels – the duo worked together in New England. Jimmy G splits opinion greatly in the NFL but the quarterback has done nothing but win. That may change now though with the Raiders.

The roster does have a sprinkling of elite talent – Davante Adams, Maxx Crosby, Josh Jacobs – but it simply isn’t enough to compete with the rest of the division. The offensive line is lacking, and defence was terrible in 2022, ranking dead last for interceptions and sacks. They have a new look secondary but this will take time to gel, and there are still major holes throughout. Josh McDaniels is very much in the hot seat and this could be his last chance.

Posted at 1805 BST on 03/10/23

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