NFL betting tips: Week 4 touchdown scorers, prop and stats bets
Following on from two Week three winners, Matt Temple-Marsh is back again with the cheat sheet, with tips across the London game and more.
NFL betting tips: Week 4
3pts Dallas Cowboys to have over 3.5 sacks at 3/5 (bet365)
2pts Chris Olave to have over 59.5 receiving yards at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
2pts Arizona Cardinals to have under 2.5 sacks at 10/11 (bet365)
1pt Chris Olave to have over 100 receiving yards at 17/4 (bet365)
1pt David Njoku to score a touchdown & over 35.5 receiving yards at 16/5 (bet365)
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Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints
- When: Sunday 14:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bets: Chris Olave to have over 59.5 receiving yards @ 5/6 (Sky Bet)
- Best bets: Chris Olave to have over 100 receiving yards @ 17/4 (Bet 365)
The first London game is here as the Vikings clash with the Saints – and I’m predicting a rookie to gain a flurry on international fans. Enter: Chris Olave.
The former Ohio State Buckeye has burst onto the scene, hauling in 17 catches for 268 yards – ranking as the seventh most in the league. In his last two games he’s seen 13 targets consecutively and has a 25% target share on the season. Last week against the Panthers he caught nine passes for a huge 147 yards, and I can a similar outcome against the Vikings.
Both Michael Thomas & Jarvis Landry had to exit last week’s contest early, leading to a big second-half performance from the rookie. However, even through the first half Olave gained 72 yards whilst his teammates combined for just 40 yards. Michael Thomas is now out for this game, and Landry is questionable after logging back-to-back limited practices. Olave has real potential to see an even bigger bump in production – and don’t be worried by Andy Dalton coming in. Dalton is one of the best backups in the league, and there has been real buzz that he was going to win the QB job over Winston in the next few weeks, too.
The Vikings secondary just allowed 219 yards to Lions’ WRs and have conceded the sixth most yards to the position on the season. This rookie is the real deal – back Olave to clear his receiving line, and don’t be shocked by another 100-yard game.
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers
- When: Sunday 21:05 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Mix – NFL RedZone
- Best bets: Arizona Cardinals to have under 2.5 sacks at 10/11 (Bet 365)
The Cardinals’ defence is a problem – only the Lions have conceded more points on the season. Allowing star defensive end Chandler Jones to walk without any plan to replace him is evident to see – as they rank dead bottom in the league for sacks, with just two.
Both of those sacks came from JJ Watt, with no help from elsewhere – and he’s now questionable for Sunday’s clash. Take a look through the Cardinals’ depth chart – outside of Watt this might be the most talent-poor front seven in the league.
During the draft process Isiah Simmons was labelled a Swiss-army knife, a true game-wrecker on defence. Fans are now labelling him a bust, as he struggles to even get on the field – and when he is, he’s earned a 46.1 PFF grade – ranking 60th out of 72 eligible line-backers. Fellow LB Zaven Collins has an even lower PFF grade, with one of the highest missed tackles percentages in the league.
The Cardinals face the Panthers, who just managed to keep the Saints pass rush in check, allowing just two sacks. The Cardinals pass rush is not up to the task, take the generous under here.
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
- When: Sunday 18:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Mix – NFL RedZone
- Best bet: Dallas Cowboys to have over 3.5 sacks at 3/5 (Bet 365)
The Commanders were destroyed by the Eagles’ defensive line, to the tune of nine sacks. This brings their 2022 total up to 15, which unsurprisingly is joint with the Bengals for worst in the league.
When Wentz drops back to pass he’s getting pressured on 30.3% of his pass attempts – ranking as the second worst in the league. His o-line just cannot cope, especially with starting centre Chase Roullier on injured reserved.
Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys have produced the most sacks in the league, with 13 through three games – averaging over four sacks per game. In week 2 the Cowboys had six sacks against the Bengals’ lowly offensive line, which has a similar feel to the Commanders’ unit.
Last year Parsons alone totalled three sacks against Washington – and he’s looking like the defensive player of the year so far. With Cooper Rush in as quarterback, this team is relying on their defence to grind out results. Expect another dominating performance from the Cowboys’ defensive line.
Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons
- When: Sunday 18:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Mix – NFL RedZone
- Best bet: David Njoku to score a touchdown & over 35.5 receiving yards @ 16/5 (Bet 365)
David Njoku balled out last week. He saw a 32% target share (up from 20% in Week 2), as he turned that into nine catches, 89 yards and a touchdown.
His Week 4 opponent is the Falcons, who currently rank as the second worst team in the league to the position – allowing on average 6.3 catches & 73.6 yards per game to TEs.
There’s a positive trend with Njoku’s usage, as he’s building a rapport with Jacoby Brissett – who has surprised many as a competent quarterback. On the year Njoku has five red-zone targets, hauling in three catches and scoring one touchdown.
The Falcons have conceded 76 points through three games, rankings as the 6th worst in the league. Take advantage of a plus matchup for Njoku at a big price.
Published at 1125 BST on 01/10/22
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