The majority of the NFL action takes place on Saturday this weekend, and Matt Temple-Marsh picks out his best bets to back.
NFL betting tips: Week 16
2pts Christian Watson anytime touchdown in Packers @ Dolphins at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
2pts Jerrick McKinnon anytime touchdown in Seahawks @ Chiefs at 6/4 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
2pts Derrick Henry 100+ rushing yards & 1+ touchdowns in Texans @ Titans at 5/4 (bet365)
1pt Christian Watson to score a brace in Packers @ Dolphins at 10/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Juwan Johnson anytime touchdown in Saints @ Browns at 5/1 (General)
0.5pt Derrick Henry 200+ rushing yards & 2+ touchdowns in Texans @ Titans at 22/1 (Sky Bet)
Seattle Seahawks @ Kansas City Chiefs
- When: Saturday 18:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Mix – NFL RedZone
- Best bets: Jerrick McKinnon anytime touchdown
Kansas City’s backfield is tough to predict, but McKinnon has emerged as a real weapon.
In his past three games, the RB has five touchdowns, with braces & 100+ scrimmage yards in his last two. Last week he saw a 19.5% target share and has averaged a 15% target share over his last six games.
To sweeten the pot further, McKinnon is Kansas’ goal line back – seeing five goal line carries in his last three games – fellow RB Isiah Pacheco has just one in that span.
He faces the Seahawks – only the Houston Texans have allowed more total yards to RBs than Seattle. The NFC West side have conceded 17 touchdowns to RBs, ranking as the second most in the league – and if we focus specifically on pass catching running backs they rank as the fourth worst in the league with 80 catches & 670 yards conceded to the position.
This is a great matchup for McKinnon.
New Orleans Saints @ Cleveland Browns
- When: Saturday 18:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Mix – NFL RedZone
- Best bets: Juwan Johnson anytime touchdown
The Juwan Johnson emergence has been amazing to watch.
The third-year tight end erupted in week seven and hasn’t stopped since. He’s scored seven touchdowns in his last seven games, with a brace coming last time out against the Falcons.
I’m shocked as to why his price is so large – Johnson has shown real chemistry with QB Andy Dalton – as he leads the team in red zone targets since week 7, and just last week he led the Saints in targets & receptions. WR Chris Olave has logged two DNP (did not practice) and is a real doubt to play this weekend, which only further increases Johnson’s chances.
It is worth monitoring the weather ahead of this game – with heavy snow expected in Cleveland. I still fancy Johnson’s chances – his red zone prowess is hard to refuse at 5/1.
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
- When: Saturday 18:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Mix – NFL RedZone
- Best bets: Derrick Henry 100+ rushing yards & 1+ touchdowns
- Best bets: Derrick Henry 200+ rushing yards & 2+ touchdowns
Earlier this season I tipped an 11/4 winner with Derrick Henry in this exact matchup – it’s only right to revisit the well once more. Derrick Henry LOVES playing against the Texans. Here’s his last four games against Houston:
- 32 carries, 219 rushing yards, 2 touchdowns.
- 34 carries, 250 rushing yards, 2 touchdowns.
- 22 carries, 212 rushing yards, 2 touchdowns.
- 32 carries, 211 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns.
No team in the NFL has allowed more yards & touchdowns to running backs than the Houston Texans this year - this is an extremely juicy matchup for Henry to continue his good form.
The RB is fresh off consecutive 100-yard rushing performances, where he managed to score in both. Expect Henry to dominate, with the potential to post absurd numbers in the box score yet again.
Green Bay Packers @ Miami Dolphins
- When: Sunday 18:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best bets: Christian Watson anytime touchdown
- Best bets: Christian Watson to score a brace
From out of nowhere, rookie wide receiver Christian Watson is one of the hottest playmakers in the NFL.
He’s scored eight touchdowns in his last five games, and if he ran the correct route in the Packers’ final drive, he would have been wide open for another score last week – he’s still a rookie at the end of the day!
Aaron Rodgers clearly trusts Watson as his number one target – he leads the Packers in targets since week ten – and he’s seen eight red zone targets in that span, with three of them coming last week.
Unbelievably the Packers are still in the playoff race, but they need to win out.
This week they face the Dolphins, a favourable matchup for Watson. Miami is conceding nearly 25 points/game – ranking as the 6th most in the league, meanwhile the Packers have averaged over 28 points in their last three games, it’s finally starting to click.
The Dolphins have allowed 2,233 yards to WRs – the ninth most in the NFL. Expect Watson to be heavily involved in what is a must win matchup for both sides, with a plethora of points.
Odds correct as of 1335 GMT (23/12/22)
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling.
Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose. If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
