The NFL season is back and so is Matt Temple-Marsh, with tips and insight coming every week. After two years of profit, the NFL Cheat Sheet will be picking out touchdown scorers, yardage totals, interceptions and more.
NFL betting tips: Week 1
1pt Josh Palmer over 29.5 receiving yards at 10/11 (bet365)
1pt Joe Flacco (Jets) & Baker Mayfield (Panthers) over 0.5 interceptions each at 3.25/1 (bet365)
1pt San Francisco 49ers defence/special teams to score an anytime touchdown at 15/2 (General)
1pt Trey Lance anytime touchdown in San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears at 21/10 (General)
San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears
- When: Sunday 18:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Mix – NFL RedZone
Two bets stand out to me in this game, and we’ll start with the new kid on the block: TREY LANCE at 21/10 for an anytime touchdown.
Jimmy’s time is over, and it’s Trey nation now in Santa Clara. It’s a total mystery on whether we’ll see a Mahomes-like ascent, or still a totally raw quarterback – but what we know is Lance is an elite rusher.
In his single full year in college, he racked up 1,100 rushing yards through 16 games, alongside 14 touchdowns. And then in his two NFL starts last year he carried the ball 24 times – that’s higher than Lamar Jackson’s career average rushes per game.
The 9ers are favoured by over a touchdown, meaning they’ll likely have a positive game script and rush the ball more often. Throw in the fact that this Bears defence conceded the joint second most TDs to QBs and I love Lance’s chances.
The 9ERS DEFENCE has been electric through training camp – every report has been stellar –that’s why I’m backing them at 15/2 for a TD.
In 2021 Kyle Shanahan’s defensive unit posted 48 sacks, the fifth most in the league. The Chicago Bears offensive line allowed 58 sacks, the most in the league – and they’ve lost two of their best players from their OL.
Throughout pre-season it’s been the same story for the Bears, with Fields running for his life. The 9ers have improved their secondary with the addition of Charvarius Ward, which will allow the defensive line even more time to prey on Fields. I’m predicting an interception or a forced fumble, taken to the house. Nick Bosa is coming for DPOY.
Las Vegas Raiders @ LA Chargers
- When: Sunday 21:25 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Mix – NFL RedZone
The aim here is targeting games with high-scoring potential, while taking advantage of low yardage totals. This game has a points over/under at 52, the second highest of the week – we can expect a bounty of points.
JOSH PALMER is the Chargers 3rd wide receiver, behind Allen & Williams.
They ran 3 WR sets on 64% of their plays last year, and through Palmer’s last five games of the season he saw 28 targets – a 14% target share – as he scored three touchdowns.
The trust is clearly there from Herbert, and there’s been plenty of pre-season hype from his QB. They face the Raiders – who’s secondary ranks 29th in the league heading into the season according to PFF.
Quarterback value
- Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets
- Cleveland Browns @ Carolina Panthers
I’m predicting sad homecomings for these quarterbacks, as they face their old teams.
We’ll start with JOE FLACCO, who is now 37 and entering his 15th year in the league. Thanks to Wilson’s injury, Flacco is thrown into the spotlight against a terrifying Ravens secondary (PFF’s number one ranked secondary in the league).
Flacco is nothing more than a back-up QB, and in his sole outing in the pre-season he threw an interception against the Giants. The Ravens were decimated by injury – but they’re now back at full strength with a point to prove.
This could be the best defence in the league, and Flacco is first up on the revenge tour.
Speaking of revenge – it’s well documented that the Browns weren’t particularly fans of BAKER MAYFIELD.
A divisive character in the dressing room, with turbulent performances on the field. In his last three games with the Browns, Baker threw seven interceptions.
The Browns’ defence is going to have to carry the team – thankfully they’re loaded on every level. Expect Myles Garrett to be at his best, alongside a secondary that ranks as PFF’s third best in league.
Odds correct at 1425 BST (09/09/22)
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