In the second weekend of the 2022 NFL Playoffs, Ross Williams picks out three best bets from the divisional round match-ups as the postseason reaches the final eight.
NFL betting tips: Playoffs
2pts Green Bay Packers (-5.5) to beat the San Francisco 49ers at 10/11 (General)
1pt Joe Burrow (Bengals) 300+ passing yards & Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) 100+ receiving yards at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 8/5 (Mansion Bet)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans
- When: Saturday @ 21:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best Bet: Joe Burrow (Bengals) 300+ passing yards & Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) 100+ receiving yards at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
Joe Burrow’s Bengals are the Cinderella story of the 2022 Playoffs and - if their journey is going to continue beyond Saturday night - it will be up to their young quarterback to get them over the line.
The Titans, coming off a bye week after claiming the #1 seed, will be buoyed going into the game as star running back Derrick Henry looks likely to make his long-awaited return to the field. This almost guarantees offensive potency and points for Tennessee, making Burrow’s task that much harder.
However, I feel the former LSU tiger is up to the task, or at the very least he’ll die trying.
If Cincinnati are to have a chance as underdogs, their offence has to be hot all night. This means playing to their strengths, and avoiding the strengths of Tennessee.
The Titans were the second-ranked team in the NFL against the run this year, averaging just 84.6 yards per game and, regardless, Joe Mixon couldn’t really get things going on the ground for Cincy in the Wildcard round.
This means we should see plenty of offence through the air, with Burrow on a run of four 300+ yard passing games in his last six outings. All-out attack and a carefree attitude will be the route to beating the well-drilled Titans, so a fifth game above the 300-yard mark should be crucial.
Key to achieving this will be Burrow’s favourite teammate and one of the most explosive rookies we’ve ever seen. Ja’Marr Chase has been nothing short of sensational in his maiden season and, if last week is anything to go by, he’s more than happy to keep the form rolling in the postseason.
Burrow hit Chase consistently and often against the Raiders, racking up 116 yards, and he should have a greater opportunity to perform in Nashville.
Only the Vikings gave up more yards to the wide receiver position than the Titans this season (188.8) so there should be plenty to go around. Tennessee don’t have a desirable match-up for Chase, so we can expect the soon-to-be-crown offensive rookie of the year to have a day.
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers
- When: Sunday @ 01:15 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best Bet: Green Bay Packers (-5.5) to beat the San Francisco 49ers at 10/11 (General)
Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers. Lambeau Field. Cold weather.
For all the talk of recent playoff history – which hasn’t been kind to the Packers when push has come to shove – you simply can’t ignore how dominant Matt LaFleur’s team are on their home turf, especially in tundra-like conditions.
As always, the Packers are built to last and succeed in the cold, whereas teams based on the sunny coast of California are certainly not. Saturday night is likely to be an uphill struggle for the 49ers, and it makes the prospect of a 5.5 point spread pretty tempting.
With 450 points under the belt this season, Green Bay are well equipped to blow the Niners away in this one and, even if San Francisco hang around, it’s hard to look past Aaron Rodgers’ ability in the fourth quarter to ice a game.
Jimmy Garoppolo’s Achilles heel is his tendency to make a key mistake down the stretch, and he even came up with one last week. The Cowboys were just unable to take the chance they were gifted after his interception.
The 49ers QB has to be inch-perfect to beat the Packers this weekend as Rodgers does not show mercy when the chips are down. The problem is, in the freezing cold and faced with a hardy defence, it’s hard to expect Garoppolo to be completely flawless. With this in mind, the Packers look a touchdown better as we head into this match-up, so I’d be more than willing to give up a 5.5 point start.
Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- When: Sunday @ 20:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
- Best Bet: Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 8/5 (Mansion Bet)
It’s almost become an unwritten rule as it’s so often been proved to be foolish, but I’m taking on Tom Brady in the Divisional Round - and not only that - I’m giving the seven-time Super Bowl champion some points via the alternate handicap.
The reason is simple. The Buccaneers are favoured in this game – with a spread that’s growing by the day – but so much of that is cemented on the reputation and mystique of Brady. The 44-year-old is a marvel and undoubtedly the greatest to ever play the game, but he’s not unbeatable.
Back in week three, Los Angeles picked up a momentous 10-point victory over the Bucs and - in my opinion - the tale of the tape in this game reads even more favourably for the Rams second time around.
Four months later, Tampa have lost star receiver Chris Godwin to the treatment table and there’s a big chance that Tristan Wirfs won’t be able to suit up on Sunday, which would be a huge blow to the Bucs’ offensive line. Meanwhile, the Rams have tooled up in a big way since week three, adding elite talents such as Odell Beckham Jr. and Von Miller to an already star-studded line-up.
Tampa’s ace in the hole is their excellent run defence, but I don’t think that impact will be felt quite as hard as some pundits are suggesting.
When the sides last met, the Rams were contained to just 76 yards, but it had no real effect on the context of the game as Matt Stafford tore up the Tampa secondary to the tune of 343 yards and four touchdowns. LA also have Cam Akers in the backfield this time, a running back capable of a far more explosive performance than Sony Michel managed in September.
Brady will keep this tight enough, because, well, of course he will, but I really do believe the Rams are being severely underrated and therefore the value is there on the alternate handicap.
I’ll take the healthier and better-equipped team to win this one by a field goal, leaving Brady to wait at least one more year for his eighth Super Bowl ring.
Odds correct at 2000 GMT (21/01/22)
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