What Happens Next: Ante-post betting round-up and selections
Justin Thomas is the wrong price for the Masters says Ben Coley, while David John is interested in the Triumph Hurdle market already.
Golf
Justin Thomas confessed to running on empty as he secured the inaugural CJ Cup via a play-off with Marc Leishman on Sunday, putting the seal on a remarkable year for the man formerly best known as Jordan Spieth's friend.
Thomas, now number three in the world, has been the undisputed star of 2017 - a year in which Spieth has taken another step towards the career grand slam, Jon Rahm has emerged to win on both majors tours and the likes of Hideki Matsuyama, Dustin Johnson and star rookie Xander Schauffele have each won multiple titles.
As thoughts inevitably turn to 2018 and the Masters, Thomas must surely be value. Even having been trimmed following this sixth win in 25 starts, he is available at 25/1 and almost twice the price of Jason Day.
The Australian won't be at the start-of-year Tournament of Champions, because he hasn't won a thing since the 2016 PLAYERS almost 18 months ago. Since then, Thomas has won once every four starts, including a first major, the FedEx Cup and the PGA Tour Money List. The latter pair Day has never won, and Thomas is now level with him in majors.
None of this is to belittle Day, a fabulous player when on-song and one who will return to winning ways soon - probably in 2018. But he's priced as almost twice as likely to win at Augusta National on the basis of one thing alone: his course form. Yet even that is looking less impressive by the year, as a run of two top-fives in his first three attempts has been followed by a best of 10th in four subsequent.
Day being too short doesn't make Thomas too big, of course, but look at the other players whose chance is considered equal to that of the best player in golf right now. Rahm, who may need a little more time. Sergio Garcia, whose overall record at Augusta is not all that strong; the stars aligned for him in 2017, but defending will surely prove beyond the Spaniard. Justin Rose, simply not as good a player as Thomas has swiftly become. Rickie Fowler, who has won four PGA Tour titles in a career which began at the start of the decade. Thomas has seven and it's less than two years since the first of them.
Now, Thomas' record at Augusta needs improving upon, but he's taken almighty leaps forward in every department this year and categorically has the right game for the course. Whether he can show it or not remains to be seen, but there are a maximum of three players who should be considered more likely winners, perhaps even just one. This is no flash-in-the-pan. Thomas was meant to be this good. By April, I expect the Masters market to better reflect his current status in the game.
Racing
Racing punters will soon be in full winter mode now the glitz and glamour of Champions Day on the Flat is behind us, although Aidan O’Brien’s quest for a record-breaking 26th Group One adds some intrigue to Doncaster on Saturday as he is sure to play a strong hand in the Racing Post Trophy.
Paul Nicholls claimed top honours from the weekend’s National Hunt action after a four-timer at Kempton on Sunday afternoon and Amour De Nuit represents a very interesting short-to-medium term prospect with the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham likely next on the agenda.
He whizzed around the Sunbury venue on decent ground displaying a very slick hurdling technique and as long as the going does not get too deep, then he would have obvious claims of adding to his tally in one of the feature events at Prestbury Park next month.
It is still very early days and a lot of water will flow under the bridge between now and next March’s Cheltenham Festival but one horse to already stake a claim for glory is the Philip Hobbs-trained juvenile hurdler Gumball.
The French import is two from two on these shores following easy victories at Stratford and Chepstow this month and it might be worth squirrelling an small ante-post voucher away in your sock drawer at double-figure odds for the Triumph Hurdle.
Champion jockey Richard Johnson labelled him "a very nice young horse", one who has displayed an ability to gallop, which suggests there is a really good engine under the bonnet.
His hurdling technique leaves something to be desired currently but you would have to be optimistic that will progress with experience over the coming months considering his trainer and jockey are both dab hands at getting the best out of young horses.
He is worth having onside to follow in the footsteps of this year’s Triumph hero and stablemate Defi Du Seuil while owner Terry Warner enjoyed success in the race back in 2006 with the classy Detroit City so will no doubt already be dreaming of a tilt at the three-year-old hurdling crown with his strongest candidate since.
Football
As we reach the end of October we’re firmly into 'sack race' territory and the next Premier League manager to leave market certainly makes interesting reading.
It’s no secret that Everton have made a horror start to the season, with Sunday’s spanking from Arsenal already their fifth league defeat of a campaign also marked by a miserable Europa League effort thus far.
Everton fans are learning the lessons already known to Spurs and Liverpool supporters that selling a star player for big money and spending the bounty on a range of squad players is not necessarily an instant route to success.
But should Ronald Koeman really be as short as 1/4 to be next manager out the door? It’s not as if Everton are the only Premier League strugglers right now.
West Ham’s ambitions for the season may have been slightly lower than Everton’s, but they still didn’t involve the relegation scrap they are currently hurtling towards. They are level on points with Everton, ahead only by a couple of goals.
Slaven Bilic has been under the pump at West Ham for some time now, and faces Tottenham (Carabao Cup), Crystal Palace, Liverpool and Watford in his next four games. It’s a nightmare run. The prospect of a second defeat of the season to the Hammers’ most-hated rivals and then a trio of games that are simultaneously very difficult, yet fixtures from which reasonable returns could normally be expected. And Friday night’s 3-0 home defeat to Brighton was horrific. He’s 11/4 to be next man out, but is surely no certainty to last another week.
Farhad Moshiri has also been consistent in his backing of Koeman during these tough first months without Romelu Lukaku. The Dreaded Vote of Confidence is a cliché for a reason, but with no evidence to the contrary to fall back on when it comes to Everton’s majority shareholder we are inclined for now to take him at his word.
There’s certainly value further down the list as well, with Mark Hughes surely not as safe at Stoke as 16/1 quotes suggest, while who knows what’s going to happen next with Antonio Conte at Chelsea at the same price, but this does currently have the look of a two-horse race in which the favourite is surely too short.
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