US PGA Championship: Golf betting tips and analysis

Justin Rose to lead after the first round

By Matt Cooper

Matt Cooper is a long-time Sporting Life contributor who previews the women's majors for the website and provides tips for multiple tours for betting.betfair.com and others.

• CLICK HERE to back Rose to lead after round one with Sky Bet

Let's get the bad news out of the way: no, JUSTIN ROSE is not in great form. In fact, he didn't even shine in round one at the Masters which is like children not opening presents on Christmas morning. But I'll stick with him and even hope his MC there serves as motivation.

Last year he told the Telegraph that he'd reached an age when he is focussed on the majors and his results back that up. In his last 15 major starts he has two solo first round leads and another four top-sixes. In that period (since 2018) he's also twice been fourth after 18 holes at Wentworth. It suggests a golfer who is up for the big test, but hasn't quite got the gas to last all week.

You can also throw in that he likes Perry Maxwell designs (he won his US Open at Merion, has also won at Colonial, and was T12 at Southern Hills in 2007) and even that he's fared well on Gil Hanse upgrades (second at Aronimink, R1 1st and 2nd at Boston, a 63 at Plainfield).

Even last week he said: "I pride myself on how I play in majors and that's obviously the goal right now. I'm working hard and feeling very motivated to be honest with you. I still believe I have some fantastic days ahead of me on the golf course." That's all he needs for us. A giddy start. One more fantastic (Thurs)day. The early tee time is the clincher – the wind is set to rise through the day, and he's a cracking each-way bet.

Jordan Spieth to be the top American player

By Martin Mathews

Martin Mathews writes a regular PGA Tour tipping column on his own website, provides in-play event previews for Sporting Life, and is a regular Paddy Power contributor.

• CLICK HERE to back Spieth to be the top American with Sky Bet

One of the most heavily supported players coming in to this week is JORDAN SPIETH, who arrives in Tulsa on the back of a win at Hilton Head and a runner-up finish in Texas at the weekend.

Bang in-form and with his tee-to-green game firing there is a lot to like about Spieth’s chances this week of completing the career grand slam and I am keen to have him onside in some capacity, particularly as his affinity with Colonial, another Perry Maxwell design, and his ability to produce Houdini like recoveries around the green, make him a great fit on paper for Southern Hills.

As my main fancies for the event are all non-American (Jon Rahm, Hideki Matsuyama, Shane Lowry) the market to support Spieth in is top American as we are still able to get double-figure odds while ruling out several of the fancied runners including Rory McIlroy, Cameron Smith and Viktor Hovland, as well as my own aforementioned selections.

Let’s take Spieth then to lead the American charge home even if my hunch is the grand slam might once again just elude him.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout to finish in the top 20

By Dave Tindall

Former Sky Sports Golf editor Dave Tindall is a regular contributor to betting.betfair.com and various other publications.

• CLICK HERE to back Bezuidenhout for a top-20 finish with Sky Bet

CHRISTIAAN BEZUIDENHOUT was in the top five after 36 and 54 holes in last year's PGA Championship at Kiawah Island before falling away and I think he can hang tough for all 72 this time.

With an emphasis on chipping at Southern Hills, that immediately puts the South African in mind and his short-game prowess is highlighted by a seventh-placed ranking on the PGA Tour's scrambling stats.

Also fifth in Sand Saves, Bezuidenhout has had five top-20s in 15 starts on the PGA Tour this season, including tied 12th in last week's AT&T Byron Nelson Championship, where he shot a 13-under weekend to climb from 38th.

Having also been ninth after 54 holes of last summer's US Open, he looks a decent punt at 9/2 to stick around longer and record another top 20 here.

Robert MacIntyre to be the top Scottish player

By Ben Coley

Ben Coley is Sporting Life's deputy editor and long-serving golf columnist and tipster.

• CLICK HERE to back MacIntyre with Sky Bet

ROBERT MACINTYRE is entitled to be shorter than 5/6 to beat Russell Knox, a late call-up following Paul Casey's withdrawal, and looks banker material among the myriad PGA specials.

Pretty much everything bar experience is in MacIntyre's favour here. He's made all eight cuts in majors, faring best at Portrush and Augusta which could both provide decent clues given the short-game test we should get from Southern Hills. He's longer, another advantage at a course set to play in excess of 7,500 yards, and his form this year has more substance. Both times he and Knox have played in the same event, MacIntyre has fared best.

Knox has played in 17 majors, more than twice as many as his young counterpart, but has made fewer cuts – just seven in total. He has made plenty of cuts this year but his two best efforts came under very different circumstances, and more recently his short-game struggles saw him fail to make the weekend in Mexico, just as he had in the Heritage, before a decent 35th last time out.

The fact he didn't make the original field for the PGA underlines the difference in standards between these two – it's world number 79 versus world number 186 – and I expect if MacIntyre extends his flawless streak of cuts made in majors, that may well do. And if he doesn't, there's a good chance he'll outscore Knox over 36 holes anyway.

Posted at 1500 BST on 17/05/22

More PGA Championship content

• Ben Coley's outright betting preview
• PGA Championship: The big questions
• PGA Championship specials
• PGA Championship longshots
• Southern Hills hole-by-hole guide
• Betfair... Only Bettor: US PGA podcast
• Spieth sets sights on career grand slam
• Tiger Woods will 'expect a lot more'

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