After a winning treble at close to 6/1 to begin the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Ben Coley has a double for round two.
Golf betting tips: Arnold Palmer Invitational round two
1pt double Noren and Conners to win their two-balls at 100/30 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
It's rare that I'm tempted to run it back after winners in match bets, but this is one such occasion. The general idea is that bookmakers can overreact to 18 holes of golf and after taking almost 6/1 about a winning treble yesterday, most firms have now taken a full point off that price.
However, Adam Scott and Keith Mitchell were both so dominant that these particular revisions don't seem too bad. Scott won by 11 shots, Mitchell by six, and at almost 2/1 the double they may not need to play as well to go in again. Nick Taylor completed the treble by the skin of his teeth but was far less convincing.
BoyleSports actually stick to their guns and if you can get on there, the same treble pays just under 6/1 again, but at the more generally available 9/2 I'm happy to move on and try to apply some of the new information we have available.
It might seem odd to say that new information leads to ALEX NOREN given that he plays with the leader, but he's value to beat Daniel Berger.
The latter was sensational in a first-round 63 which saw a massive upturn in putting fortunes from last week, when he was selected on these pages, started well, then couldn't hole a thing.
It's only part in hope that I'm opposing him here, though. There seems every chance his putter isn't nearly as hot and while I don't really subscribe to the theory that it's hard to back up a low round, today is a new day.
And I simply don't think Noren should be touching 6/4 when right now he's the better golfer. DataGolf have 52 places between them, OWGR have 45, and it's not just that: Noren leads 2-1 in the tournament head-to-head this year, winning each of the last two by a very long way.
Florida changes things and this is where Berger is at his most comfortable, but not to the extent that he should be such an overwhelming favourite. Plus, Noren hit the ball really well in his level-par 72 but suffered a difficult day with his short-game.
Prior to this single round of golf, we'd have expected Noren to perform better than Berger on and around the greens. If he does so today he can demonstrate that, right now, he is the better golfer. Backing those at 11/8 will work long-term.
Min Woo Lee is a fair price in the very next match but I've a lot of time for Michael Thorbjornsen, so the second pick is COREY CONNERS to beat Harry Hall.
Again, the new information is important. We knew before the first round that Conners loves Bay Hill, but the suspicion it wouldn't suit Harry Hall, so dependent on his short-game, so far looks good. The other thing that wasn't clear was the state of Conners' game, his ball-striking having been off lately, but that improved for a return to Florida, where he's played so much of his best golf.
Having gained strokes in every department and won this match by three, Conners is a confident selection to repeat the trick.
Posted at 06:30 GMT on 06/03/26
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