Ben Coley has a confident two-balls double for round three of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where Daniel Berger is clear in the lead.
Golf betting tips: Arnold Palmer Invitational round three
2.5pts double Fleetwood & Fitzpatrick to win their two-balls at 13/8 (William Hill)
1pt double Fox & Scheffler to win their two-balls at 4/1 (bet365)
0.5pt four-fold the above selections at 12/1 (bet365)
It's been a tormenting start to the year for these pages and at the halfway stage of this week's PGA Tour events, there's a fair chance the worst is still to come.
Without wishing to wallow in self-pity while nobody is around to edit my work, the list of bad beats and bad decisions is long enough for 12 months, never mind two, and as I type my headline pick in Joburg has just made a double-bogey that takes him from fourth place and bang in the mix to six behind and struggling.
We've had some horrible misfortune, with David Puig grounding his club in a bunker on the final hole of the tournament and missing the places as a consequence. We've had Sunday woes, with Oliver Lindell hitting the front then producing back-to-back three-putts. We've had two win-only selections lose by one shot having putted horribly all weekend, both of them excellent putters for months beforehand.
It's been rough, but the worst of it has been the bad decisions in amongst all this: not sticking with Collin Morikawa at 66/1 having been on him at 40s the week before; not sticking with Casey Jarvis at 33/1 having been on him at 16/1 the week before. Both won. And there could be two more of those come Sunday, because last week's picks Chandler Blanchet and Daniel Berger lead by four and five shots respectively.
For those who like to find ways to soften these cruelest of blows, it's about 9/2 the Blanchet-Berger double. I have seen worse bets. Berger, at 6/5, looks particularly good value to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational, with the record of such wide-margin leaders on the PGA Tour closer to 70% than the implied 45% and his second round just as impressive as his first in many ways.
Plus, the world number one is 10 back, the world number two nine back, so if Berger does play well this weekend they should pose no threat. With Bay Hill likely to become tougher, I'd say he's on a winning score already, one it's possible nobody else reaches at any stage. If he doesn't win the tournament it will at least in part be down to the fact he opened the door in some way.
That could of course happen – Bay Hill penalises some poor shots so heavily that each-way backers can't count the place money yet – but this is a confident, classy golfer playing in his home state at a course he likes, one which in recent years has quite heavily favoured players as precise as he is. Berger has every chance and having been the one outsider I came close to selecting, it will be hard to swallow if he does it.
Blanchet isn't one I considered and the chasing pack can draw hope from the fact he's been putting terribly all year. There's a lot of firepower within that chasing pack, too, so he'll do well to protect the size of his lead from here. Of the two my initial thought was he'd find things easier given the standard of opposition, but the more I look, the more inclined I am to believe he's more vulnerable than Berger.
On balance I think I'd settle for just one of the two winning, or else at least some place returns from Ludvig Aberg and Matti Schmid in both events.
Onto today's two balls and an early double makes plenty of appeal at 6/4 and upwards, with TOMMY FLEETWOOD and MATT FITZPATRICK both expected to continue to progress up the leaderboard.
It was a shocking start from Fleetwood but as he's done so often down the years, he simply got on with it and made the cut. Fleetwood should have big ambitions for this year and grinding to make the weekend at a tough course like Bay Hill can play a part in helping him achieve them.
He was excellent in his second-round 69, gaining strokes in all departments, and it was really just the putter that had made Thursday so disappointing. With that club largely reliable these days and firmly back on track in round two, he should outclass Austin Smotherman.
Fitzpatrick's task is slightly more challenging against the solid Nick Taylor, but there's a reason the former was priced as fourth-favourite for this. Bay Hill is an ideal test for a former US Open champion whose form since last summer has been excellent. His approach play has been anything but so far this week but expect that to change over the weekend.
Taylor has struggled off the tee through two rounds whereas Fitzpatrick has been excellent and from there, the latter is expected to be too good. These two world-class golfers merit short prices and while tempting to add Keith Mitchell for a 7/2 treble, the safer option is preferred.
One risk I do want to take is with RYAN FOX, who is overpriced against Rory McIlroy.
Opposing the latter isn't something to do lightly but Fox is really comfortable in his company, which is important. That may help explain why he's outscored McIlroy on two of the three occasions they've played together already this year and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest were he to have the better of the argument again.
Fox has been slightly better from tee-to-green, too, and if he can keep it in play off the tee can at least keep tabs on McIlroy. The odds look too wide and I couldn't have McIlroy as the shortest-priced favourite on the coupon.
That should be SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER who, despite definite signs that he's not quite in the form he showed this time last year, can be expected to produce his customary Saturday move without perhaps getting into contention.
Scheffler was highly frustrated after a closing bogey to fall 10 behind but has retained or improved his position in 14 of his last 15 Saturday rounds (excluding the multi-course AmEx) and will surely do so again today. He's against Harris English, a player I liked for this, but who struck the ball poorly in round two.
English won't be fazed by playing with the best player in the game but matching him is another matter. Ultimately I think Scheffler is the wrong side of 1/2 but if you're less inclined to play at short prices, Fox at north of 2/1 makes for a value single.
Posted at 08:15 GMT on 07/03/26
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