Golf betting tips: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am final round
2pts win Jordan Spieth in AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at 4/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Troy Merritt in AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at 200/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
It seems at the moment that if it is Sunday on the PGA Tour it’s time for a ‘shootout’ and after Seamus Power surrendered his five-shot, 36-hole lead with a limp effort yesterday, we once again have a log-jammed leaderboard heading into today’s final round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Top of the tree and sharing the lead on 15-under we have a trio of players: Beau Hossler, Andrew Putnam and Tom Hoge, while just behind them on 14-under lurk the ‘big guns’ in the shape of Patrick Cantlay and Jordan Spieth who, sit alongside Joel Dahmen.
Looking at the leading trio, Hossler started his week slowly on the easier Monterey course before posting back to back 65s to vault himself to the top, while Hoge, who like Hossler is yet to win on tour, has been solid since his opening 63 at Pebble Beach saw him take the day one lead, and shot a bogey-free 68 at the tougher Spyglass on Saturday. Putnam, meanwhile, after a slow start on Saturday, reeled off five straight birdies in his final six holes at Pebble Beach to propel himself into this position.
With players dotted across three courses and with limited stats to look at away from Pebble Beach, it can be tough in this event to get a feel for how players have compiled their scores across the week. However, looking at Hossler and Putnam yesterday, it would seem that they both did their best work at Pebble with the putter, rather than their long game, and my suspicion is that playing together in the final group on Sunday they may struggle to back up Saturday’s efforts.
Neither of them has ever produced anything like their best stuff in this event before, and while Putnam has caught the eye over recent weeks, Hossler’s performance has come out of the blue, and I am happy to pass on them both today.
It is a slightly different picture with regards to the third co-leader heading into today - Hoge - as the 32-year-old clearly has been knocking on the door of his first PGA Tour win of late, while also showing last year when playing in the final group in this event on Sunday that he has what it takes to compete here.
On that occasion Hoge shot a lacklustre 71, which saw him slip back to 12th place but he is clearly getting more and more comfortable in this situation and, having shot a respectable 68 when playing in the final grouping a fortnight ago at the American Express to finish runner-up to Hudson Swafford, there are plenty of indications that it may just be his time to win.
On that basis, of the leading three Hoge makes the most appeal heading into today. But despite holding a pre-event ticket on him, I can’t find a way of putting him up again today at the current odds, when the names of Cantlay and Spieth lurk just one shot behind.
While either of this pair could easily come out today and shoot 64 or lower to run away with the trophy, Cantlay just looked slightly off it on Saturday at Pebble, with his approach play in particular, where he lost over two strokes to the field.
SPIETH, contrastingly, was absolutely dialled in with his irons on his way to his 63 at Pebble yesterday, gaining over five shots in his approach play on the field, and having survived a really scary moment when he played his second shot into the eighth hole from the edge of a precipice with a 60ft drop below, he looks primed to push on today to take the trophy.
A former champion here, with four other top-10s to his name, Spieth clearly loves the event and having started 2022 slowly on the back of the birth of his first child, he has found his mojo again this week and he looks the play from near the top of the market.
Joel Dahmen is another self-confessed lover of Pebble Beach and having won his first tour title by the coast at the Corales Puntacana his chances should certainly not be dismissed, while you cannot rule out Power, who starts two back on 13-under bouncing back now the pressure is relatively off.
We have seen over the past couple of weeks, though, that when the leaderboard is this tight there is room for someone to jump out of the pack and with 16 players heading into today within five shots of the lead, I would rather roll the dice for my second pick at longer odds on someone doing this again, and although the resurgent Jason Day does make some appeal the player I will chance is TROY MERRITT.
Merritt is another like Hoge who was on my radar at the beginning of the week and while his 70 at the easier Monterey yesterday was somewhat disappointing, starting five back on 10-under he is certainly not out of it, after all let's not forget that Vaughn Taylor came from seven back on Sunday to win in 2016.
Pebble Beach lends itself to a fast start with the first seven holes the most ‘gettable’ stretch of the course and having played holes one and two in 3-under on Friday Merritt will fancy getting out of the gates quickly. A two-time tour winner, Merritt has been playing some very steady golf over the past six months or so and he was strong through his bag in his measured round at Pebble on Friday.
He has also performed strongly here over the years so we know this is an event he enjoys, and with three each-way places on offer and question marks about all of the front three, I am happy to risk him at huge odds alongside the more obvious play of Spieth.
Posted at 1010 GMT on 06/02/22
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