Golf betting tips: Final-round preview of the Fortinet Championship
Martin Mathews fancies there could be some significant changes at the top as the final round of the Fortinet Championship takes shape.
Golf betting tips: Fortinet Championship final round
2pts win Max Homa in Fortinet Championship at 9/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Scott Piercy in Fortinet Championship at 66/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)
With all eyes firmly fixed on the road to Wisconsin and the upcoming Ryder Cup, the first event of the new PGA Tour season, the Fortinet Championship has gone slightly under the radar this week.
With 54 holes completed, the tournament is set up for a fascinating conclusion and with 18 players within four shots of the lead going into Sunday the event is clearly still wide open.
Top of the tree on 14-under and with a two-shot lead over the chasing pack are the pair of Maverick McNealy and Jim Knous.
Focusing on McNealy first and let's make no mistake, there is no doubt that this 25-year-old is on his way to big things on the PGA Tour. Brought up in California, McNealy arrived at Silverado on the back of a solid end to his 20-21 campaign and he was on many people's radar coming into the week.
After a Friday 64 catapulted him to the top of the leaderboard, though, he struggled off the tee on Saturday and it is to his credit that he was able to turn his round with four birdies in his final six holes to maintain his position at the top.
Yet to win on either the PGA Tour or Korn Ferry Tour, this will be a new experience for McNealy today and my suspicion is that leading from the front with the board logjammed behind him is not how his first will come.
Add in a slight injury concern, in that the Stanford grad hurt his wrist early in his round on Saturday when punching out from a tree, and I am more than happy to pass at the general 5/2.
If McNealy's position at the head of the leaderboard could have been predicted it is fair to say Knous’ far less so. Granted, the 31-year-old did post a top-10 here in 2018, but he missed all three cuts in the Korn Ferry finals recently and all four cuts on the PGA Tour last season.
Knous, who is using this week as one of the two starts he has left on a Medical Extension, struggled with his iron play on Saturday but kept himself in contention with a hot putter and with so much at stake today it is hard to picture him keeping this going and landing the trophy. A top-three finish would wrap up his card and while a win of course would be lifechanging for him, I am sure his main focus will be on the former.
Five players, MAX HOMA, Mito Pereira, Scott Stallings, Troy Merritt and Beau Hossler, will start the day two shots back in a tie for third on 12-under, and of this quintet it is Homa who makes the most appeal at the odds.
Homa, who attended college just down the road from this week's venue at Cal-Berkeley, is a California native who having already shown in his career he was comfortable playing in his home state, landed the trophy in his local city of Los Angeles at Riviera earlier this year.
After a low-key end of season Homa has been reignited by a return to the West Coast and allowing for the known comparisons between this week's venue and Riviera there will be many kicking themselves, including me, that they weren’t onboard from the outset if he goes on to win.
After a sluggish Friday Homa took advantage of slightly softer conditions on Saturday to vault up the leaderboard with a round of 65, gaining five shots on the field from tee to green, and if the putter had co-operated a bit more he could have gone lower.
Unlike any of the others within a couple of the lead, Homa has recent winning experience to call on and I am more than happy to take the 9/1.
Of the others starting on 12-under, another West Coast specialist - Scott Stallings - makes some appeal, however he has relied heavily on his putter this week and with him being winless for so long it may be that the flat stick won't stand up for him when it matters most.
Talented youngster Pereira, conversely, leads the field from tee to green having relatively struggled on the greens and while the putter could catch fire for him today, at the same odds as Homa he makes far less appeal.
While a maiden win for Beau Hossler is long overdue and Troy Merritt, as we know, is a player who can come alive at any time, in an event which has seen four of the seven winners come from three or four back since it arrived at Silverado in 2014 it may be that the scene is set for one of the players who will start on the 10-under mark to post a number early and go home with the spoils.
The people's favourite to do this will be California native Phil Mickelson and with five birdies in his last six holes on Saturday to get him into contention, he will really fancy his chances.
Call me a humbug but I just can’t see a second win for the 51-year-old this year and at bigger odds I will instead add the far less heralded SCOTT PIERCY to the staking plan.
I sided with Piercy at the start of the week due to the momentum he brought into the new season from his strong finish to the end of the last campaign, and a hole-out eagle on the 18th on Saturday has brought him right into the mix.
Unlike several others near the head of affairs, he has not relied on one strong round to get him in the hunt this week, nor one particular component of his game, as he has been solid across the whole bag. A player capable of going really low, Piercy has a 62 on his resume at Silverado and it may just be that he has saved his big round of the week for Sunday.
A four-time winner on tour, the Las Vegas resident - aside from Mickelson and Webb Simpson - boasts more winning experience than any of the others on 10-under or better, and with four each-way places on offer I'm happy to play him alongside Homa at juicy odds.
Posted at 1010 BST on 19/09/21
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