Golf betting tips: Final-round preview of Czech Masters in Prague
Jason Daniels previews the final round of the Czech Masters, where the pre-tournament favourite may not be done with from four back of the lead.
Golf betting tips: Czech Masters final round
1pt e.w Sam Horsfield at 12/1 (Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3)
4pts Sam Horsfield to beat Dean Burmester at evens (Sky Bet)
Another Sunday on the European Tour and what could prove to be another case of 'after you, Sir'.
Rasmus Hojgaard became the third player in seven events to fail to convert a third-round lead when lobbing away a three-shot advantage at The London Club last week, and with a couple of eventual runner-ups coming from way off the pace to go with the remarkable victory of Daniel Gavins, those out in front have generally been vulnerable at this level.
Tapio Pulkannen has the unenviable task of fronting the field on Saturday evening and while his play this week has been almost perfect for the Albatross course, recent form indicates play on days one to three has little relevance when it comes to pulling in the cheques on pay day. Ask Rasmus or Jordan Smith.
As one of Ben Coley's pre-tournament selections at 66/1, he potentially carries an extra club in the bag but with an overall greens-in-regulation ranking outside of the top 120 for the past three years, it's a struggle to believe that 5/2 is any value, despite what look like a stunning set of figures thus far: the 31-year-old is top five in greens, sixth in birdie conversion and top two in tee-to-green.
Many of the leaderboards over the past 12 months have seen the appearance of the names Johannes Veerman, Sean Crocker and Adrian Meronk and all three are well capable of transferring a good three rounds into one that will push them over the line at last.
Veerman's recent form - third in Ireland before tied eighth in Scotland - reads well, but maybe more for a different type of track while both he and Pulkannen have to play with Henrik Stenson, easily the most experienced in this position and most likely to be the player that doesn't flinch when in front. But while the Swede has that as his biggest asset, his recent form is not good and he ranks behind the majority of his leaderboard rivals in birdies and birdie conversion, surely something required on Sunday.
Crocker was my original fancy for this based not only on his high ranking in driving distance and the par-five charts but the fact he hits a load of greens and is one of the best ball-strikers on the circuit, typically important here given the exploits of Thomas Pieters. He hasn't let me down so far with his top-of-the-class GIR and tee-to-green numbers, and he leads the field for the par-four holes, something that separates players away from the most obvious of birdie chances.
He beat Meronk in the Alfred Dunhill after the third-round leader shot a four-over 76, but really should have put more pressure on eventual winner Christiaan Bezuidenhout, going well until a disastrous approach at the final par-five led to a triple-bogey. Players learn - witness Calum Hill dropping the lead in Scotland before recovering to win a week later in Kent - and this really should be his best chance of the rest of the year. It wouldn't have taken a much bigger price to gain interest but at 5/1 he's about right.
Ultimately this is a busy leaderboard behind the man in front and it wouldn't surprise to see any of the top dozen or so win, but surely the most reliable to make a move is SAM HORSFIELD, in terrific form and with the perfect game to score here at Albatross.
His chances were well covered in Ben's preview article and while he has proven hugely frustrating on the greens so far, the 12/1 on offer looks good value from four behind and just two adrift of those sharing second place behind an inexperienced front man.
Just 57th in birdie conversion off a ranking of sixth for greens-in-regulation tells a tale but he's looked to be in second or even first gear so far and if he can get off to a better start, he's well capable of fireworks. Indeed, the Anglo-American leads the tour in birdies with an average over five per round - something along those lines might give him a chance and he can do better still.
Horsfield has charged home for the place money on several occasions this season, so often after a costly Friday gave him too much to do. This time, birdies at the 17th and 18th holes on Saturday, the least he deserved having had his ball on a string for the final 10 or so holes, have kept him close enough and he has nothing to fear from what's in front of him.
Indeed, go with Horsfield in his mythical two-ball against Dean Burmester, Sky Bet surprisingly having chalked him up at even-money. The pair were 10/1 and 20/1 pre-tournament and Horsfield is entitled to be odds-on anywhere, let alone at a course he loves whereas Burmester keeps finding ways to go backwards here.
I'm a fan of the big South African, who never hides the emotion after every missed putt, usually by collapsing on the floor. It's great viewing but it's tough to watch if you're on and while his all-out birdie-attack will reap rewards, it can lead to pressure on his short game, something that simply won't get it done on Sunday.
Burmy has got steadily worse this week, going 68/69/72 through three rounds, and has now racked up nine bogeys against his opponent's two, increasing that count day-by-day. He won't be fussed if he finishes eighth or 28th against a rival that came again on moving day and will believe he can shoot 60-something and win this. At better than odds-on, there is the best of the day.
Posted at 2130 BST on 21/08/21
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