Ben Coley has a 40/1 contender heading into Sunday's final round in Johannesburg. Get his take on the state of play plus an 11/4 three-balls double.
Golf betting tips: Joburg Open final round
2pts double Schaper and van Tonder to win their three-balls at 31/10 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
Hennis Du Plessis has played seven events on the DP World Tour so far this season, and he's improved his finishing position each time. So, given that he was third behind Casey Jarvis in Kenya and then runner-up to the same player last week, it would be fitting were he to capture his first title at this level if Johannesburg.
That didn't look likely when he bogeyed successive holes in round three, falling five behind on a jam-packed leaderboard, but then came a burst which took him to the top of it. The 29-year-old birdied five in a row from the turn, added another at the 17th, and will take a two-shot lead into the final round as a consequence of that plus a run of late misfortune and mishap for Brandon Robinson-Thompson.
Du Plessis could be forgiven for wondering why his young compatriot Jarvis didn't put his feet up. Playing for the seventh week in succession having now earned Masters and Open invites, Jarvis is bidding to become just the third player in the history of the DP World Tour to win three in a row, which perhaps answers that question. At various points that hasn't looked likely for him, either, but a storming back-nine has him in the mix again, this time two behind Du Plessis.
The other members of the top five are from England, namely Robinson-Thompson, Dan Bradbury and Alex Fitzpatrick, all tied with Jarvis in a share of second. Robinson-Thompson rode it out on Saturday having struggled early on, but successive 360 lip-outs as the sun began to set were cruel enough, before his drive off the 18th tee clipped a tree and advanced no more than a hundred yards. The end result of all this was falling from a tie for the lead to two behind, and losing his place in the final group as a consequence.
Fitzpatrick has looked ready to win for a while and did well to keep tabs on Du Plessis as his playing partner went berserk. His birdie at the 17th followed by a scrambled par at the last were both important as this is a quality leaderboard for the grade. Beating both Du Plessis and Jarvis still won't be easy; but for that 3-4 finish it would've been extremely difficult. Our selection certainly has a squeak as does Bradbury, who won here so early into his professional career and is completely at ease.
It nevertheless makes sense to favour the South African pair over the English trio but the market agrees with that so I'll be a hopeful observer, knowing that if Fitzpatrick can finish in the top six, we'll break even on the tournament. Perhaps it'll benefit both him and Bradbury to be in the final group together – the pair are from cities 25 miles apart and played amateur golf together – but Jarvis will fancy piling on the pressure in the group ahead.
We should remember that Calum Hill won this with a closing 62 from eight behind and the blend of soft conditions and some forward tees make that kind of thing possible, but this top-five is packed with talent and I'll be amazed if the winner isn't among it. For what it's worth, Du Plessis' improvement dates back to winning a Sunshine Tour event from three clear in October, eventually by seven, but this is obviously tougher.
He's the most likely winner of course but those taking 5/4 have four potential dangers to worry about. If you're on the red-hot Du Plessis from the start then you're exactly where you want to be, but there will be many better times to take odds of around 5/4, including in the pick of the three-balls.
DANIEL VAN TONDER is about the same price to beat English duo Jack Hawksby and Nathan Kimsey and rates far better value in my eyes.
Hawksby has just four top-10s on the Sunshine Tour, where he's been playing for three years now, and the most recent of those came last June. He qualified for this on Monday and deserves huge credit for the way he's played so far, but he could definitely empty. Having hacked it down the easy 17th and then scrambled par at the last, there are some signs that he will.
Even if he doesn't he's the weak link on paper and I'm inclined to side with van Tonder in what could amount to a head-to-head, on the basis that he boasts an excellent course record and closed out his third round in style. He seems to be loving life at the moment and having finished strongly for a top-five finish in this last year, a repeat seems perfectly possible.
Kimsey is a fine player but he's been struggling a little with neck and shoulder soreness and van Tonder has to be the call, as does JAYDEN SCHAPER against Ockie Strydom and Luke Brown a little earlier.
Schaper has been disappointing since he opened with a flawless 64 but despite not having his best game, had he made short putts on the final two holes he'd still be in this from four back. As it is, he's six adrift and his winning chance looks to have gone.
Still, once he's over the frustration of a long Saturday he'll recognise that qualifying for the Masters from 57th in the world could eventually come down to a shot here or there, so absolute focus is required. He seems the type to find it and leave us wondering what might've been with a staying-on top 10.
Brown is playing the best golf of his career but his level looks to be that of a good Sunshine Tour player rather than someone aiming to book a ticket to Augusta, while Strydom has struggled for long periods since a golden run a couple of years ago. If Schaper can tidy up on the greens he ought to beat these two with a bit to spare.
I also considered Jason Scrivener, who has carded rounds of 66-65 after a slow start and is in top form at the moment. Justin Harding is certainly beatable but David Ravetto is a powerful player I do like and therefore I'm not particularly inclined to back the experienced Aussie.
Those keen to make it a treble can consider Jarvis against Adrian Otaegui and Robinson Thompson, but in the back of my mind is the risk he struggles to dig deep if his winning chance goes early. There's nothing else for Jarvis to play for after what he's achieved lately so just as this hyper-aggressive type could shoot 64 to win, 72 to frustrate those backing him at short odds in an otherwise winnable group is also plausible.
Without wishing ill on the man, let's hope for one of those, which would make Fitzpatrick's bid to win his first DP World Tour title that bit easier.
Posted at 17:45 GMT on 07/03/26
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