Golf betting tips: Final-round preview and three-ball bets for the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship

Golf betting tips: Dunhill Links final round

1pt Grace and John to win their three-balls at 5/1 (BOYLE Sports, bet365)

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Casey Jarvis produced one of the finest rounds of iron play I can recall seeing to move into a two-shot lead in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. The South African, already twice a winner this season and virtually assured of his PGA Tour card for 2027, now has the chance to emulate JJ Spaun and turn the disappointment of Presidents Cup rejection into a massive DP World Tour win.

Jarvis began his third round by holing a wedge to the 10th at the Old Course, then birdied three of the next four, all from inside five feet. Another approach to a couple of feet at the third followed by a birdie from twice that distance at the fifth moved him clear, and then when he found a pot bunker at the sixth, yet another dart meant he was able to save par regardless.

It was a deadly display from Jarvis and having failed to crack the top 50 in four previous starts in the tournament, finishing as far down as 147th of 164 last year, he's now just a shade bigger than evens to complete a hat-trick in this breakout season. Significantly, despite that abysmal record this was the second time he'd carded a round of 65 at St Andrews and he's played it better than his nearest pursuers this week.

That's not the only factor which could be in his favour, because just who these two players are is a key part of the story. One is Matty Jordan, our 40/1 pre-tournament pick, selected because he's in the form of his life and loves this style of golf. Still, there was always going to be a question to be answered were he to get into the mix having so far come up short in his bid to win on the DP World Tour, which he joined in 2020.

For Adrian Meronk, who won four times in two seasons before the combination of a Ryder Cup snub and many millions of dollars coaxed him to LIV Golf, things are no less significant. The Pole has no status for 2027 and the more we hear about LIV Golf's bankruptcy filing, the less likely it is that there is a LIV Golf next year. Meronk faces the prospect of Q-School and even if he came through it, playing from a lowly category is difficult.

Clear second wouldn't just earn Meronk his card, but it'd go a long way towards securing starts in Abu Dhabi and Dubai at the end of the season, should those events go ahead. By my maths, he'll move to a points total likely to be enough to finish inside the top 100 if he finishes solo fourth or better in an event where, like Jarvis, he'd previously made no impact whatsoever.

Meronk's situation is similar to that of Thomas Detry, currently fourth, but the Belgian is higher up the Race to Dubai and a top-10 finish would go a long way towards earning him status for 2027. In a different way, Detry is like Jordan in that he's yet to win on the DP World Tour, though of course he did manage that on the PGA Tour before he too departed for LIV Golf.

It all leads back to Jarvis, motivated to prove a point after he, like Spaun, was overlooked for the Presidents Cup. My view is that Jarvis needed to play better following his sixth place in the Open (the single best clue that he might go well this week) and that he can have nobody to blame but himself. Nevertheless, while he didn't sound hard done by in a recent interview with Today's Golfer, there's no doubt he has a bit of a chip on his shoulder and wants to show Geoff Ogilvy what he was missing.

The biggest plus for Jordan, and those further back perhaps, is the weather – it's been a gorgeous week in Scotland but it'll be fresher and windier on Sunday. There could even be a bit of rain, but it's the wind that may change the dynamics of this tournament. There aren't many on this leaderboard who have showed that they can grind through such conditions but Jordan has, and I dare say he'd relish the chance to do so again.

Runner-up twice since August, perhaps it'll be Jordan's day, but I find it hard to get away from Jarvis and while under calm conditions Meronk's power and winning form would be hard to resist as third favourite, given the forecast the hierarchy appears correct: Jarvis is in command, Jordan is his biggest threat.

Further down the leaderboard, we've perhaps been a bit unfortunate with 140/1 MJ Daffue. His putter was a concern and that has been the biggest issue, but he's also found himself hurt by the draw. Even allowing for the strength of each segment, Daffue's had Carnoustie on the wrong day and that combined with several lip-outs means his winning chance has gone despite the fact that he's tied for the lead among those who began at Kingsbarns.

Perhaps Daffue can find the 66 or so we may need for a nice place payout but that may require an exceptional ball-striking day given what we've seen over short putts and I would've preferred a calmer forecast.

Without enough in the price to justify backing Jarvis, we'll turn our attentions to three-balls and another South African, BRANDEN GRACE.

A former Dunhill Links champion, Grace has improved with every round this week and that makes sense given that he'd been absent since the end of the LIV Golf season. He shot 66 at the Old Course on Saturday, where he has an excellent record, and wind shouldn't bother a player who has contended for an Open and won at Doha too.

He's in with Daniel Cronje, a low-ranked compatriot who was seven shots worse in round three, the pair having played the same rotation. Cameron Adam completes the group and he began his week at St Andrews, shooting 72. Grace then has hugely outperformed both at the golf course they play on Sunday and that only serves to strengthen his clear advantage.

Matt Fitzpatrick and Robert MacIntyre are obvious options but both look a little on the short side and I'd rather try CAMERON JOHN, who looks potentially well drawn.

John is grouped with a compatriot Declan O'Donovan, which can't be a bad thing, while the other member of this three-ball is David Bryant, whose accuracy-based game isn't a great fit for St Andrews. He's been best of the trio at the Old Course so far, but John shot a four-under 68 here a couple of years ago which could've been much lower – he was seven-under for 17 of the holes but made one big error.

Also of note is the fact that he was last seen finishing an excellent 28th in the Open Championship and Thursday's first round, which came at the Old Course, was always likely to see him improve for the outing. He's done that, shooting a pair of 68s since, and can show that it was rust rather than the course which caught him out on day one.

The double pays 5/1 with bet365 and just under 11/2 with BOYLE Sports at the time of writing.

Posted at 19:15 BST on 03/10/26

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